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Those who cannot remember their past are condemned to repeat it. These few words from the philosopher Santana remind us of the importance of interpreting past economic cycles to analyze the uncertain situation we are experiencing today. Hello, we met today. We studied the living, the most important thing, according to Howard Marks.
This specialist in investing in economic sites will control Howard Marks. He is considered one of the greatest investors of the decade and is talked about in investment circles alongside Big Girls in One Fact and others. And for the record, he is one of the six founders of Doctrine Capital, an investment fund with over $120 billion in assets.
This book is nothing more and nothing less than the result of letters that Marks sent to his investors over several years. It is not a book of accounting evaluation, it is not a book of very practical advice, it is a book of reflections and qualitative recommendations for investing. Albert, the beauty of this book is therefore not to give you clues about what to think about a investment, but rather how to think about your investment project, so when certain Jacky Lambon from the internet responds with advice on investor mindset, here is a summary of the notes of a man who has managed and generated billions with a long- term strategy.
It's because your aunt, like mine, has something precious. Here is a plan with the theme. It is also if you wish to return to a specific point. We will first see this current, reminiscent of the second degree of long-term investor, then we will review the notions of psychology applied to investment, and we will finish with the essential principles for buying your best ordinary shares.
This book obviously attacked the small 10 km/ h. I am an engineer, a financial analyst approved by the AMF. The information provided, the meaning, is only for general information purposes. It does not constitute personalized dancing in matters of investment or cheap wine. So, to introduce you to the notion of the second degree, here is a reminder, that of the two main camps, years and investment in a field.
It is first the investors in value, like barge ras, mentoring, the fact is either the trend of the Vazzio Investing pays to the trend of investors in growth at a reasonable price, like Peter Lynch on the trend of guard investing. Keep in mind the acronym de Gaulle to tube with the ball prince is one of the greatest achievements.
Laughed was also to manage to reconcile these duplicates, thought for more than 50 years, which will have marked those who invest in value against the current of cycles, and this is what is called counter- aliens in stores. To define this principle for you, here are the words of the late Sir John: "A model bought is indicated, others desperately try to sell, and sell when others are buying." This is what gives immense courage.
The profession brings immense profits because yes, it takes courage to mess with the stock market, and doing it against the current of popular wisdom demands even more because markets can remain over- or undervalued for several years, and this can therefore be very frustrating when the trend goes in the opposite direction to what our eyes see.
It is at this point that we need to acquire this appeal, this second-degree perspective. To do this, we must look beyond a simple analysis of the fundamentals; we must integrate our understanding of the market into our choices without necessarily convincing ourselves that our decisions are correct. This is something we will be addressing throughout this video.
Concretely, this second degree could, for example, lead us to make this choice: let's take a fictional hotel company and call it the 10th Special Forza. It is currently in a market where those who have been causing its revenue to plummet for the past five years have unsurprisingly made these results negative.
However, for the past seven years, with the exception of this year, its turnover has been constantly increasing, and once the crisis is over, there is no tangible reason to believe that it will not recover its financial results. Moreover, a company today only has its entire real estate portfolio as a result.
Well, I will be on that point. One more thing: beware of the psychological influence of the market on asset valuation. These factors could lead you to believe that the company's hotels Special stoves, this fund, we are the company, while the resale, even just 4%, or its real estate portfolio would be enough to launch, however, for this, one must get an idea, and if Tania, especially when a stock plunges, when the Oatei close one after the other, and when our primal instinct tells me that we are good fools, and this leads us to study a subject perhaps even more important than accounting, signed to invest long term, I am obviously talking about psychology and in all the aspects that make up this exciting discipline, and psychology, and in which I have to educate my witness because it is the profession,' to the mayor, we will first of all, we will look into the study of crowd psychology because what is stock market investment if not a huge auction in which the whole world can participate, so let's take advantage of this point, we drink too much beer, or to remember the four concepts of crowd psychology according to Gustave Le Bon, firstly, the searches are irrational, has time to eat toilet paper, we are talking The lockdown is hard to believe, and Hamburg, which is, in my opinion, the best thing about this reality, and the following phrase, well-known to those who experienced the dot-com bubble of the 2000s, this time it's different: a 200-fold increase is acceptable because it will revolutionize everything.
Secondly, crowds have dynamics. When arriving at the tollbooth, there are two: one huge and one completely empty. We will tend to choose the huge one because if there is no one on the other, it's surely because there has been someone there until a contrarian takes the initiative to go there. The analogy is valid in the stock market.
Thirdly, studies show that crowds are easily influenced, and this is what Benjamin G reminds us with his famous Mr. Market analogy in his idiotic investor idea, which was also revived on this channel. And fourthly, fools are often dependent on honor. We have been able to observe the influence of a simple cost, as Le Musk did regarding the signal.
We can legitimately ask ourselves how Berkshire Hathaway will fare on the day our taste surrenders, and the lesson to be learned from this is that the safest and most lucrative thing often Howard has been to buy a nation when everyone is in the comic strip and the tears when everyone is at what Peter Lynch, more than guiding Gherkin, believes, emphasizes when he says he is on the lookout for scandals to take advantage of the medium-term discount of an interesting long-term company.
Several of you, moreover, have some difficulty managing your emotions on the stock market. So, in my close network, I have psychologists and psychotherapists whom I am considering having intervene on the channel to help those of you who would like a locker room before the term without feeling my anxiety.
So, well, I await your order in positive or negative comments at the rally. This idea is now motivated that we are. Let's move on to the essential principles for buying its best lines to remember from this book, and you will see that our most effective weapons are sometimes Not the most beautiful when Christmas, to do this we will first look at this notion of risk according to Howard in order not to be surprised and lose everything, but also with regard to indicators of economic overheating as well as its selection framework to introduce you to this notion of risk, here is one of my favorite quotes from the book, the ultimate danger zone, the stage when investors agree that things can only be better forever.
Obama having been one of the few to note in 2007, I observe a low level of skepticism, fears, and risk versions, he obviously has more than one thing to teach us, starting with these notions that I have, ten have reformulated in French. We must remember that rising prices are like good wine, we logically appreciate it, the more we consume, the more the hype.
And in the third quarter, to bounce back to a new mythological quote from Demosthenes, nothing is easier than those of the country itself. For everything a man hopes for, he will believe. That it's true, very well put, this notion of risk is understood, you might say, but how do we value them? First of all, just as some point out, volatility doesn't represent risk, but simply the unpredictability of short-term variations.
Ten nations, the risk in the stock market is the probability of definitively losing capital, nothing more. And to protect ourselves against this capital loss, we must buy companies with a real margin of safety, that is, when the intrinsic value is greater than the money offered on the market. Because the risk can certainly be due to shaky fundamentals, but not only that, it can also, and above all, introduce a risk of buying too high.
And when you start out with audacity, like with this little video that I would also like to produce, it's not so difficult to start paying attention to the accounting, but the hardest part remains. The hardest part is acquiring the composure and sense of value necessary to, for example, invest at any moment because you are convinced you are making a good deal.
Now, be careful not to make the mistake of thinking you can buy at the lowest point, or at the most opportune moment. The story, because it's just IRL STS, and highlighting this point is worrying, or rather, good, but Martin Soyer, the author of the book bought on the stock market at the bond, which is still considered one of the greatest on this topic during the 20th century, agree on this point.
In short, in moments of doubt, recalling Voltaire's words, "the best is the enemy of the good," so if the stock is cheap, it can be integrated into the portfolio today. Remember, even cheaper tomorrow, it's likely. Is it important, Remy? Absolutely. We're talking as long as its intrinsic value continues to increase.
I also have my own side. Over time, they've put in place a method of approximating this intrinsic value that some of you already know, and we'll talk about that later for those who follow the project. By more men, and know that sometimes a simple study of the book value, i.e., the total assets minus the total liabilities of the company, allows you to unearth glaring examples of undervaluation.
For example, this year during... The crisis of the mining company uncovered a mining company that had more gold in its stocks than its market capitalization. However, the update of its stock value, proportional to the sharp rise in the price of gold, only occurred with the publication of the quarterly results a few months later.
This logically propelled the share price upwards. But some will tell me that we are coming out of the recession and that there is no reason to worry more than that, so why spend so much energy assessing our margin of safety? Or, to me, the idea of you being alarmist—I really can't stand what they preach, fear-mongering—except that if the history of the few rare crises of the 21st century is to teach us anything, it is that investors must remain vigilant and their ability to analyze the situation is crucial.
This reminds me of the metaphor in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's book, * Wild Hazard*, which we investors should remember if we were to compare... Our reality is like Russian roulette; this comparison should therefore include an additional, more sinister aspect to this fatal game, and this additional vicious aspect is due to the fact that our economy cannot be reduced to a revolver with only six months in which it fights to house them; it would rather be an automatic weapon possessing thousands of empty ammunition chambers in which a live bullet has been discarded, and after a few dozen or even a few hundred shots, we test the existence of this bullet and we then put ourselves in a false sense of security through narration.
We, if we cannot predict war, we can prepare for it, and to do so, here are two fundamental principles of web thinking before moving on to these indicators of overheating and especially to its selection vault. The principle is firstly, most things tend to be cyclical; secondly, some of the best opportunities for loss profiles come when others forget principle number one.
Very well, this worries you, perhaps it is true that we have known, let's say, more practical things in terms of rice. So, to this theory, here are some essential notions to interpret an end of cycle, that is the noise that our lease the watch has wound up matic which is gradually approaching father Peter the first indicator of overheating and the 1st of the market otherwise the Schiller looted or Capeo as cyclical allies in Libya when bonds find themselves having increasingly higher yields it is also an indicator of overheating issuance of deposits and dividends is also a very bad sign finally when buyers give compared to the least hours which generally translates into an increase in the number of transactions and they bull market become really dangerous according to a trotter from the moment when the insufficient skepticism of investors in making them accept that certain revolutions will change the world at all besides that the rules have changed and not PayPal did not for example kill Visa and Mastercard that the Sikhs and past patterns will not be repeated and that valuation standards such as the market P/E ratio are no longer relevant so what is the ST for more than 200 years let us therefore be vigilant when psychological factors or supposed technical factors such as rights From its caustic smokers take precedence over fundamentals, but how do we choose resilient companies to protect ourselves against these cycles?
How can a company with unknown assets, which happens to be excellent, be undervalued? Because it may seem utopian with the tools we have in the 21st century, these questions are legitimate. On this, I would like to say a few words, and what if the key to open this safe was already in your hands, and because it seemed to be a rusty knife, you disdained it?
Let me explain: generally, all the best opportunities without a ward are among those that most others disdain. In other words, good deals inevitably have flaws, unlike remarkable deals that are often overvalued, like Apple, which I therefore ask whether these flaws are harmful or not for the company's progress.
Very concretely, here is a list of the apparent flaws we are looking for. Our company may be unknown and misunderstood; its fundamentals may appear dubious and ultimately solid. For example, in a country experiencing high inflation, it can be contested, even distressing, such as being considered disreputable.
Warby, unpopular, its price in recent years may have experienced two poor performances, like our hotel, a special fornos by AFNOR, by looking for recent investments rather than growing capitalization, as is the case for shopping centers or current physical stores. Now, to unearth them, awards proposes the following method: list and old investments, estimate the intrinsic value, compare the potential purchase price, then evolve the risk incurred by buying, selection, as well as integrating it into your portfolio, because the goal of a well-managed portfolio is for the assets that compose it to be as uncorrelated as possible, but we will come back to this in a future video.
Subscribers will also emphasize this point. If there is one quality common to all these great investors that we must cultivate, another is patience. You have to be patient; there aren't always remarkable opportunities, and you have to accept that. But it is extremely difficult mentally to act against the trend.
It is also a synthesis of the weapons of Dow investment funds, on this subject we've seen, there's obviously the sense of intrinsic value, mental resilience when prices fluctuate, the study of past cycles, and then the understanding of psychological and social biases in investment. He also admits a point that really makes sense with a long-term project, and here it is: you need to have friends and colleagues, small groups to share your ideas with, and they will support you in your difficult choices.
And that's what the community, through a free exchange, aims to offer everyone. For the moment, it's also a resounding commercial success. And know that in this kind of context, by adopting this kind of strategy, for a manager like Howard, the most difficult thing is not managing selection, but ultimately managing your pizzas.
And that's where we have an additional advantage as individual investors. I'm now going to conclude this video with one of the most beautiful metaphors from this book, and then briefly mention our support group. If you're interested in investing, it's ultimately a discipline very close to sports in both its positive and negative aspects.
And having been a high-level athlete, I've seen other aspects of my life before tempering my sporting pursuits as my studies progressed. I can only agree with this analogy: sport, like investing, is a competitive discipline with clear, meritocratic, quantitative results, because the best achieve the best long-term results.
There's also a team spirit, as a well-organized group will achieve better results than a single person. The old doors of satisfaction, recognition, and I would even say a sense of accomplishment, are all part of the equation. But sport, like investing, also has a strong sense of solidarity, despite its negative aspects, especially in the short term.
Aggressiveness is rewarded, but it's not beneficial in the long run because it inevitably leads to a loss of capital. Investors sometimes experience frustration, a kind of bad luck in economic novels, just as it happens during certain matches, especially when our rugby ball... well, it's so true. Short-term success between Hélène Coran is funny, but it doesn't last a year because this result will never be repeated.
It's important to emphasize that the careers of investors are often not much longer than those of top athletes in Le Mans. For those who experience investing as a game, there's a bit of a hiccup because there are euphoric investors and there are two young, serious investors. Do you know a single old investor who's all about money?
Whatever your answers, and Amine, putting these concepts into practice for your portfolio interests you, there are six long-term restricted communities of investors who, like us, increase their hard exchanges and freely help each other on this subject. The community, by a term that is the free hour, now includes several hundred dead, all intelligent and respectful of each other.
And what I want to emphasize is that you are free to access it via email. 21 is accessible in disappointment. If you choose to register, you will receive access to the platform for exchanges between diamonds upon registration. a summary of profitability ratios to prioritize only once a month and once a month following I'm sorry friends composed of a share read by me so sticks then in the associated section on our at the end I specify that there were in 2020 two shares which were proof in the monthly and that the replacement share logically for the least so if you choose 20 years clear now of the passing ratio to tell of treatment rooms if the latter attribute Guinea
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