저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 대형 유통·외식 체인은 코로나 국면에서 소규모 경쟁자를 흡수해 실적이 좋아질 것이며, 그 반대로 중소 사업자는 사실상 소멸 위기에 있다. 이번 주 월마트·홈디포·타깃 등 대형 유통 실적이 '믿기 힘들 만큼 긍정적'일 것으로 예상하며, 주가는 실적 발표 때 매도 대상이 되기보다 매수 대상이라고 언급. 대형 체인이 승자인 이유는 당일 배송 등 물류 우위와 규모의 경제(대량 구매 시 낮은 도매가)이며, 일반 소매·철물·스포츠용품·목재점 등은 정부가 비필수로 분류해 경쟁력을 잃었다고 설명. PPP(급여보호프로그램) 종료로 소규모 사업자 지원이 끊겼고, 의회 협상 교착으로 9월 8일 상원 복귀 전까지 추가 구제가 어렵다고 진단. 피자·외식업계는 배달 중심으로 재편되며 도미노피자가 배달 인력 2만 명을 채용 중이고, 피자헛 가맹점 300곳 폐쇄 가능성 등 소형 피자집의 실내 좌석·주류 매출 타격을 지적. 외식 대형주로 얌브랜즈(KFC·타코벨·피자헛 모회사)를 매수 유효로 언급하고, 다든(올리브가든)·치폴레 등 디지털 강자의 강세를 긍정 평가. 브링커(칠리스)도 테이크아웃 전환으로 수혜 가능성 언급. 피트니스 분야는 플래닛피트니스 트래픽이 조지아·플로리다·텍사스에서 정상 대비 53~61%로 낮지만, 제프리스 분석상 독립 체육관 3만5천 곳 중 다수가 도산해 고객이 저가 체인으로 이동할 것으로 봄. 결론적으로 이번 분기가 중소 사업자가 PPP 자금으로 버틴 마지막 경쟁 분기일 수 있으며, 중소 사업자는 상장되어 있지 않아 대형주 중심의 시장은 중소 업계 붕괴와 무관하게 상승할 수 있다는 취지로 마무리.
다듬은 글
this market has given me a split personality including a day like today where the nasdaq roared one percent sme gained 0.27 and the dow declined 86 points we're about to get a set of unbelievably positive numbers from big retailers and restaurant chains which is fabulous if you own the stocks but frankly it is horrifying if you think about why they are thriving this week we hear from walmart bye bye bye from home depot bye bye bye lois bye-bye and twice bye-bye and all their stocks get hit for any reason sell sell you have to buy them because these major operators are up against general merchandisers hardware stores sporting goods stores and lumber yards that simply cannot compete because they were deemed non-essential by the government and i fear they'll never get those lost customers back not with the prices these big guys charge the winners have so many advantages over the little guy that i'm amazed there's still any competition whatsoever soon i have fear that there won't be and that's what's really driving me nuts i love when these big household names go higher but i hate one of the reasons they're going higher their small business competitors are being wiped out a lot of these smaller outfits have been able to hold on told their own before cobit but now the big guys have crafted phenomenal same-day delivery services that only amazon can beat anyone by the way who's used shipped from target knows they can send you stuff within an hour sometimes we use them for props on the show it's fabulous mom and pop outfits can't compete with that in the age of social distancing we constantly hear that our economy is going through five years worth of technological change in a matter of months but that also includes retail and now the ppp's run out that was that government program gave you some money well now everybody's left to their own devices if anything it's even worse for restaurants where ppp was so valuable today domino's announced that it needs 20 000 more delivery experts they need pizza makers managers assistant managers now let's brainstorm on this together i mean do you think they're hiring all these people because of a surge in demand for pizza versus burgers versus chicken versus anything else no no it's because they're taking share from smaller pizza parlors that are more reliant on indoor seating and don't have the same kind of delivery infrastructure and can never afford it right now there are plenty of restaurants making do with outdoor seating it's so exciting right but it reminds me it reminds me of vienna but that goes away the moment the weather gets too cold and beware if you're too crowded the authorities might come and shut you down a heartbeat my twitter feed is filled with people saying restaurants will always have a following that is not the point until we get a vaccine our following is cut in half because of physical distancing in this in the bar in the restaurant and the state doesn't want lines out the door either more importantly there's a liquor issue as someone who's in the restaurant business i can tell you that the real money's in drinks growing up my dad would never let us start drinking until the food came because he knew that's how they gotcha so a lot of pizza parlors will have tables inside where they can serve you alcohol and that's where the profit margin is and those tables are being cut in half they've got to take them out if they can't have people inside think new york city it's devastating throwing the extortionate cut demanded by the delivery services which are all combining anyway you're going to not lower the prices a lot of these places will not be able to stay in business and will be gone within a matter of weeks dominus knows this which is why they're getting ready to poach people obviously domino's doesn't make the best pizza in the world though their tomato pie with banana peppers is just killer but i love ordering from them because i can put the tip on the bill and then they'll put the pizza on a contactless pedestal that makes you feel a lot more comfortable than if you order from the local guys it's kind of like when you were when you were a little boy or girl i don't know and you would like ring the bell and then you'd like run away and people think it's funny well that's what they do there's like nobody out there it's great pizza and papa john's are set up for delivery too they they don't care if they can't have people inside not a good business wing stop think that one when we get delivery orders for our restaurant we use our own waders it's the only way we can afford to do it and believe me it's a lot less lucrative than having people eat inside the darn restaurant have a good bottle of wine we're seeing the same dynamic across the whole industry darden the parent of olive garden and yum the parent of kfc pizza and taco bell both have the wherewithal to handle a dramatic decline the number of seats at the restaurant one of pizza hut's biggest franchise may have to close 300 locations because of the in-store dining issues i'm talking about yet the stock yum it's still a buy on the other hand if your local pizza parlor were publicly traded you short that thing to the cows came home the big guys have easily transitioned to a takeout and delivery model chipotle's so good at digital that they're doing better than ever i just wish that 1200 stock would split so more home gamers could own a piece of this great company i want people to say i own a piece of chipotle brian nicole i want them to jack hartung cfo give us a chance to own a piece of chipotle some of the analysts are recommending chains like uh brinker the parent of chili's symbol e.a.t because it's involved into a takeout model almost overnight the fewer people it has this restaurant the more likely it is that these smaller outfits will go under that's right it's a win for brinker if they can lure other people from other restaurants with their their takeout how are these big chains so much more profitable because they're big it's all about scale chipotle sells topo chico that's the best fizzy water in the world it's from mexico they sell it for less than we pay for it at bar san miguel my small plate mexican place that's how business works when you have the volume when you buy in bulk you get lower prices yeah wholesale prices can't beat it starbucks could be in the same category if you're a landlord you want a starbucks in your property you know they can pay the rent although they may not pay as much as you would want to anymore but it sure beats being empty how about the big box chains again their scale lets them buy stuff at incredibly low prices you'll hear that tomorrow when walmart reports i remember jim singal the former city of costco told me that some men's store managers would just buy their shirts directly from costco because it was cheaper than buying them from the suppliers what does that tell you about those companies prospects and that was before cove had made life even harder for small business yet most people just don't seem to realize how precarious these businesses are there was an amazing piece from jeffrey's this very morning titled fitness wars planet fitness traffic monitor update we see stabilization ahead it turns out in georgia florida and texas planet fitness is seeing 61 58 and 53 of the normal traffic not so hot right hold it according to jeffries there are 35 000 independently owned and operated gyms in the united states they don't have the deep pockets like planet fitness many of them are even more expensive which is not great in a recession right and it's harder for them to keep clean a lot of these independent gyms are probably going to go under and a lot of that business is going to go to the bargain that is planted fitness now for months the paycheck protection program did keep a lot of these small operators in the game it's over and then congress couldn't compromise on a new deal and the senate won't be back in session until september 8th which means the small businesses that need a bailout absolutely won't be getting one anytime soon which is why i fought so passionately get that done and failed who am i i'm a tv guy but i did try to bring them both together anyway you could argue that this is simply how capitalism is supposed to work and i hear that all the time too survival of the fittest wasn't that great in any other situation i probably even agree but this is an extinction level event for small businesses for 15 million people i don't know about you i'd rather live in a world with some big businesses and some small ones than a world where only the biggest operators can survive we need more than pizza hut in kfc and olive garden men cannot live on infinite breadsticks alone unfortunately with cost staying the same not like landlords are slashing the rent social distancing meaning you can only steep half the number of customers a lot of these independent restaurants and retailers just can't survive eventually we're going to get a vaccine but i doubt they'll be able to hold out that long unless they're being run as a labor of love rather than a labor of you know making money so here's the bottom line if any of these big box outfits disappoint when they report this week remember this could be the last quarter where they actually faced significant independent competition funded by ppp after that the small guys are mostly done done thanks to a pandemic nobody saw coming and a political class that just can't get the job done luckily for your portfolio though mom and pop outfits aren't publicly traded which is how the market can keep roaring despite the small business devastation
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