저자: AlasdairMacleod&JimRogers · 외국인
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일본 금리 인상 압박과 240% 부채비율로 엔화·채권 리스크가 커지고, 법정화폐 신뢰 약화 시 금·은이 급등할 수 있다는 주장. 1970년대 인플레 사례와 달러 약세 전망을 근거로 제시. 단기적으로는 금리 인상 기대가 금 가격 하방 압력이 될 수 있다고 언급.
다듬은 글
that relationship changes and is basically what drove gold up in the 1970s and it seems to me that we're very very close to that relationship actually changing. Um at the moment when you see uh bond yields uh decline slightly as we have today then gold shoots up which I suppose is prices in particular in Japan is going to be significant.
So in the context of the Bank of Japan's interest rate policy, we can see that a caution 1% in September is by far uh from being the end of this story. They're going to have to silver doesn't need the entire market to rush in. If just a fraction of investors dramatically increases physical demand, the price could be forced to $50, $80, or even $100 an ounce.
A last air mloud reveals that Japan's interest rate policy could reach a critical point if the Bank of Japan moves toward 1% in September because persistent inflation and yen weakness may eventually force rates much higher. History shows the danger. During the 1970s, after OPEC sharply raised oil prices in late 1973 and January 1974, Japan's consumer inflation exceeded 25%.
Wholesale prices rose roughly 30% and bond yields approached 8% despite government debt being only about 20% of GDP. Today, Japan's debt to GDP ratio is around 240% making high rates far more dangerous because debt servicing costs would surge. Mloud argues that policymakers may therefore suppress bond yields while a weaker yen could destabilize the yen carry trade affecting global markets.
At the same time, investors may increasingly favor gold because it carries no counterparty risk. Gold's monetary role maintained for roughly 2,500 years becomes especially important when fiat currencies lose purchasing power. Mloud believes gold can rise even alongside higher yields if currency and debt risks dominate.
Meanwhile, silver's demand is about 50% industrial. While roughly 20% is investment driven because investment demand sets prices at the margin, silver could potentially clear around $50, $80, or $100 per ounce. Could silver really reach $50, $80, or even $100 as investment demand surges? Let us know what you think in the comments and don't forget to like, subscribe, and share this video for more insights into gold, silver, and the global financial markets.
So, in the context of the Bank of Japan's interest rate policy, we can see that a caution 1% in September is by far uh from being the end of this story. They're going to have to raise interest rates considerably. Now if you go back to um when this happened in the 1970s when OPEC raised its reference price um in two steps.
First of all in late 73 and then in January uh 74 the rate of inflation in Japan with a 20% debt to GDP was uh it peaked out at over 25%. That was the consumer price inflation rate. Wholesale prices rose by some 30%. Bond yields uh rose to around about 8% and the Bank of Japan sat on it to stop it going any higher.
We are a long way from that. And the big difference is that instead of having a debt to GDP of only 20%, today the debt to GDP is 240%. Clearly, Japan cannot afford a rise in interest rates. The problem now is how do they stop it? How they do they get out of it? If they raise the rates, the Bank of Japan raises the rates to deal with the inflation problem, then they're going to just basically um destroy the whole economy.
So, what they will do instead, and they really have no option, uh they will try and sit on the rates and try and stop it rising up to 5 6 7 8 9 10 11% whatever to control the rate of inflation. But you can see that markets are beginning to get spooked by the arithmetic of this situation and that is going to impact on the yen which has already bounced by over 5% um on two uh runs.
uh the first one uh following Bessant's initial um intervention which was a little over a week ago and then today um uh the yen's um has I mean it's an upside down relationship it has fallen by 2% relative to the dollar which basically means that it's gone up in terms of its value relative to the dollar so uh that I think is something which looks like um if you're um European um uh uh uh dealer then what you would do is you would sell dollars and buy euros and at the margin you would put some of this into gold which as we all know is real money.
So um this is I think increasingly going to drive relationships in markets um in the coming in the coming weeks. Um, and we're beginning to see this, I think, the change in relationship between dollars and gold in so far as until very recently, if you had um a rising oil price, that was seen as negative for gold.
I don't don't ask me why. I mean, that's the way that's the way the macro boys think. Um and uh the other thing uh is that if you see a rise in interest rates then that's bad for the gold because um you know you're being penalized in terms of uh in interest return if you hold gold which yields well a lease rate of what half a percent compared with US treasuries at 4% four you know around about 4% and if that's going to rise you know the penalty is going to be even greater holding gold but you know when you get a situation where the risk the the apparent risk shifts if you like from the currency to gold.
That relationship changes and is basically what drove gold up in the 1970s. And it seems to me that we're very very close to that relationship actually changing. Um at the moment when you see uh bond yields uh decline slightly as we have today then gold shoots up which I suppose is fine. Um but the problem is that when uh bond yields rise everybody thinks oh it's it's a penalty to hold gold.
No it isn't because the way to look at it is where is the risk in this? The risk is in fiat currencies. You've got to get out of fiat currencies and you got to get into gold or for commodities which gold effectively represents. So that's the situation at the moment and yeah it's it's on the change I think and that does mean that gold priced in falling uh uh gold and silver have um been money for the last 2 and a half thousand years basically it's final settlement of credit um and we're denied the ability to settle uh credit in gold and silver um that just isn't allowed anymore and that's that basically means that credit loses its value.
It's got no sheet anchor if you like in terms of gold. Now here's an interesting thing. I mean I've tried to make the point that uh the purchasing power of gold is relatively constant over long periods of time. Well, back in the mid 18th century, so we're talking about 1740, 1750, stock droppers in London basically started dealing from coffee houses in the city, Exchange Alley, which stands for Exchange Alley.
And Jonathan's was um the coffee house which actually became eventually the London Stock Exchange. And when I was um a member of the London Stock Exchange, they actually opened the cafe in there which they called Jonathan's. I mean, a nod to the history. The point I'm coming to is that you could go in there, you would have a cup of coffee for one penny, one old penny, which they're 240 to the pound, and that could allow you to listen into the chatter.
It may be, you know, you could buy or sell stocks or, you know, bonds or whatever. Um, and it was very, very important. And it was out of this the whole thing developed. The whole of these sort of modern markets developed. Um, So, one penny. Okay, one penny. Now, um in those days, at least shortly after, so it didn't actually make any difference.
A pound basically was exchangeable for a gold sovereign. Um I mean, originally it was a guinea, but basically it was a sovereign. Now, if you work through the value of a sovereign today, which is around about £820 uh each, originally exchangeable for £1, your one penny um 280 years ago in today's currency is about4, which is more or less what a cost of a cup of coffee from Starbucks costs today.
I mean just absolutely this sort of random um fact it just shows you that uh gold maintains its purchasing power. You don't buy gold because it's going to go up. No, you buy gold to get the hell out of credit which is going down. That's the key thing. And everybody should understand that even though um the US Treasury turns its back on gold and says no, gold is just a pet rock or whatever.
It's no longer relevant in this modern age. Da da da da. Yes, it is relevant and um it's always been and it always will be relevant and uh you know if you want to believe Mr. Bessant um about the uh you know how wonderful the US treasuries are, then good luck to you. But I can tell you safety is getting the hell out of credit and getting into real money without counterparty risk, which is gold, possibly silver, and sub.
Rising inflation and a weakening dollar could push gold and silver toward extraordinary price levels. Jim Rogers reveals that the US dollar faces growing pressure as America's debt approaches $40 trillion, making the future of the world's reserve currency increasingly important for global markets. Looking back to 1926 when Britain's pound sterling was under pressure, the comparison highlights how problems affecting a reserve currency can spread internationally.
Today, rising US debt and continued money creation could weaken the dollar's purchasing power and increase inflation. This environment can support gold and silver because precious metals are priced in dollars, meaning a weaker dollar can push their nominal prices higher. Bullion recently remained little changed after falling 1.5% over two sessions showing short-term pressure as markets react to higher oil prices and inflation concerns following renewed US Iran clashes in the straight of Hormas.
Traders were pricing roughly a 60% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike the following week, which can pressure gold because higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. However, Jim Rogers reveals that continued currency debasement could ultimately support much higher precious metal prices with $30,000, $40,000, or even $50,000 gold representing a possible consequence of significantly weaker dollar.
Let's get back to the interview. US dollar is the world reserve currency right now. But I mean, the US dollar, the US is in gigantic debt. the debts going higher and higher or it is a good time to be an old American. It's not a good time to be a young American. Uh because young Americans are going to have huge problems because of the debt situation [clears throat] just as young Britain's had big problems 100 years ago as the currency became or came under pressure.
I promise you that is going to happen certainly in your lifetime and it's going to be a big problem. inflation will go higher, the value of the dollar will go down. I mean, this is pretty simple stuff. It's happened for hundreds of years. That's all they know to do. They know to print money. That's they don't know anything else.
And that's what they will do. Jim, is that going to ultimately be bullish for the price of gold? No, of course. I mean, gold and silver are dominated in dollars or currency, paper money. And if there's a lot more paper money, whether it's dollars or whatever, people will protect themselves with gold and silver.
They always have and they always will. Jim, does the prospect of the $40 trillion of debt and a Fed still worrying about inflation make you think investors need to own more gold in their portfolio than they usually currently do? Well, everybody has to make their own decisions for themselves. But yes, I will continue to buy gold and silver because I know they Washington, other places will continue to print money.
And I don't know another way to protect myself. I mean, let's put it this way. The best way to protect yourself is gold and silver. So, I will buy more cuz I know they're going to print more. They will say they're not. They will tell many lies, but all they know is to print money and they will more and more.
The US is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world. I'm not the only person who knows that. We all know that the US continues to print more and more paper money and more and more people are looking for ways to protect themselves. If you and I were talking in 1926, we would be talking about the pound sterling, about ways to protect ourselves.
It has moved over to the dollar. Now, there will always be a reason for people to protect themselves against currency debasement. If you don't own any goldes down, I buy more. I don't I've never sold any gold and silver, but if they go down, I hope I'm smart enough to know that, recognize that, and buy more.
Gold and silver will always protect us when things if and when things collapse. I don't like it, but I know the facts. And you you see that closet, put some gold and silver back there after we hang up. Um, Jim Thomas Kaplan is a very successful long-term gold investor, and he's recently said on a KitKo interview that gold could eventually reach 30, $40,000, or even $50,000 an ounce.
I know you don't like making price predictions, so I'm not going to ask you for one. But when you hear $50,000 gold, does that sound ridiculous to you, or can you imagine a world in which that might actually happen? It depends on the currency as much as anything else. And as governments continue to debase currencies and print money, yes, you pick the pick the currency.
It could have an absurd price, what we think of as observed prices. But it's just the fact that governments will print more money and make the value of paper money less. It'll make the value of the money go down. That means gold and silver will go up. But what's really happening is the printing of money makes the value of the money go down and politicians will continue to do that.
Maybe in some countries they'll stop for a while, but in the end, I mean, in Washington, that's all they know to do is to print money and they will do more and that will make the price of gold and silver go higher in terms of US dollars and other currencies. The problem is even if you teach them, they might say, "Okay, we'll stop." But then when things get bad, they'll start printing again.
And that's all they know. They don't These people are not very smart. That's why they work for the government. Do you see that happening [clears throat] anytime soon? Could you imagine they keep printing so much money that we could see a price like $50,000 in in either of our lifetimes? Well, of course.
That's just that's the price of the currency going down. Yes, of course. that there will be probably some others country that has a sounder currency and the value will be different in the sound currency. I mean the US is the least sound. Ultimately the outlook for gold and silver is increasingly tied to the broader pressures building across the global financial system.
Japan's 240% debt to GDP ratio, persistent inflation, and potential interest rate increases highlight how difficult it can become for heavily indebted governments to control prices without creating additional financial stress. At the same time, rising oil prices and expectations of tighter US monetary policy can create short-term pressure on precious metals, as shown by bullion's recent 1.5% decline.
Yet currency debasement, expanding debt, and geopolitical uncertainty could strengthen long-term demand for hard assets. Silver could be particularly sensitive to investment flows because only a relatively small increase in physical demand may have an outsized impact on price, potentially pushing it toward $50, $80, or $100 per ounce.
Gold faces a similar dynamic if confidence in fiat currencies deteriorates with extreme scenarios of $30,000, $40,000, or even $50,000 per ounce reflecting a significantly weaker dollar. The balance between inflation, interest rates, debt, and currency confidence will remain crucial for precious metals.
Could $100 silver and $50,000 gold become reality as the dollar weakens? Stay tuned for more gold and silver market insights. Like, subscribe, and share this video to stay ahead of the next big move in precious metals. Thank for watching.
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