🔴RAY DALIO ve PELIGRO para la BOLSA: ¿POSIBLE CRASH?

요약 보기

레이 달리오의 최근 발언(링크드인·다보스 인터뷰)을 소개하며, 주식은 펀더멘털 대비 대체로 적정하나 채권은 다소 비싸다고 본다는 내용. 달리오는 경제 둔화와 높은 인플레이션(약 3%)으로 금리 인하가 시장 기대보다 늦어질 것을 우려하며, 미국 대선 전후의 사회적 분열, 중동(이스라엘-가자, 이란 연계 세력) 긴장, 미중 패권 경쟁 등 지정학 리스크를 강조. 진행자는 시장이 중국 리스크는 상당 부분 반영했으나 중동 리스크는 덜 반영한 것 같다고 평가하고, 해운 운임 급등이 인플레이션을 0.6~0.8%p 끌어올릴 수 있다고 봄. 방어 수단으로 금·실물 금을 언급하나 구체적 투자 권유는 없음.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. King Dalio spoke a few days ago, he's worried about the stock market, and we're going to see the reasons. Greetings to everyone. That's right, in the latest statements made by Raido, summarized in an interesting article by Market Insider, these statements were taken from both LinkedIn and interviews he gave during the last Davos forum.

02. The conclusion is that while at the stock market level, shares are trading more or less in line with the fundamentals, the bond is a bit expensive. The situation at the purely stock market level is fine, so what's the problem? Is there a risk of a crisis like the one we experienced in 2008, a financial crisis?

03. No, the truth is that's not the problem. The problem is everything surrounding the stock market: the economy, Inter-American politics, and geopolitics. We'll see. To begin with, the market is discounting a Goldilocks economy, that is, a gradual decrease in inflation along with moderate growth that will allow the Fed to apply discounts to interest rates relatively soon.

04. Well, dear King, the truth is that's exactly what's happening. Honestly, the latest GDP growth figures have some nuances, but there they are: a 3.3% increase. Analyzed alongside a PCE of 2%, which is precisely the target the Fed has to begin reducing pressure on interest rates, these are relatively good figures.

05. In that sense, the economy, the official data, are heading in that direction, but Raido doesn't see it that way. He doesn't see it that way, I'm sorry, but he doesn't. He expects everything to go wrong because he believes growth will disappoint. He believes inflation will remain a point above, or around 3%, during the next year, and that will force central banks to reduce rates more slowly than the stock market expects.

06. Okay, here we have a first negative factor for stock prices next year, 2024. However, he's not doing that "put your money where your mouth is" thing. Because while he's not at all clear about it, while he has these bad prospects for the economy, he's not taking big positions in that direction. Okay, he is, no doubt about it, but in principle, he's not taking any risks.

07. Where does he see more serious problems? With the elections. In the United States, that is, he believes that both candidates are a threat, and a significant threat to the market. Why? Because the social division that the United States has right now is very, very pronounced, and the fear is that this could lead to some kind of conflict, even a civil war.

08. These tensions are very much in vogue, but I've done a little research on Google Trends, and for the moment you can rest assured, people aren't searching excessively for "civil war." There's a small rebound since July 2023, but well, for the moment, let's say that the population is calm in that sense.

09. However, it is true that throughout this year, this topic has been discussed. For example, there's this article in Politico magazine talking about a possible uprising of the extreme right in case Biden wins, or even if Biden doesn't win, we don't know, but it's a topic that is being discussed. And well, this is from today on Twitter, two tweets.

10. The first highlights this division between the countryside and the city, not between the urbanite on Instagram and the real world of the farmer, the worker, in the FCA in the sea, the mine, no. This division isn't just a US issue; it's being seen all over the West. And it's true that there's a lot of tension in Texas because the state government has sent the National Guard, along with other Texas state forces, to defend the southern border to prevent illegal immigration, overriding the authorities and federal agents who are applying a much more lax policy.

11. There could be a clash, even a shootout, between the two forces. Let's hope there's nothing more to it, but we have to give Rey Dalio some credit because there really is tension in the United States. To what extent will this end up affecting the stock markets? To what extent do we have tools to defend ourselves against something like this?

12. Well, it's difficult, it's difficult. In the end, we'd have to resort to gold, to gold, and to physical gold, but of course, it 's a very complicated decision because you 're withdrawing a very liquid asset from your broker to buy gold coins or bars, and then if you want to get rid of them, it's a bit cumbersome.

13. It's not an easy decision at all, and especially imagine large investment funds and such. Well, they have to resort to ETFs, which is very difficult, very difficult indeed, to protect oneself from a conflict or from these kinds of problems, specifically at a geopolitical level. Of course, it says that the market is not discounting the current geopolitical risks.

14. It's no longer just a matter of the internal situation in the United States, but also the problems between Israel and Gaza, which are entangling the entire Middle East in a rather complicated situation, and also the power struggle between the United States and China. Well, regarding Gaza, the situation is worsening, and it's worsening at an alarming rate.

15. Two days or 24 hours ago, the Israeli Foreign Minister declared that from now on, Iran is a legitimate target for the Israeli army. That is to say, at any moment we could start to see bombings by Israel against Iran, which will almost certainly be met with violence by Iran, an Iran that is using its armed groups and small groups that it has scattered throughout Iraq, Syria, and Yemen to incite attacks against the bases that the United States has in Syria, for example.

16. And of course In the case of Babal Mand, against maritime transport, especially maritime transport destined for Israel, this situation could lead to a blockade of a very important trade hub in that entire area, and it is undoubtedly a risk, and it doesn't seem that the market is taking it into account.

17. Seeing the S&P 500 at all- time highs, it seems that it isn't taking it into account. However, the cost of transport has skyrocketed. This is January 2024, and you can see the sharp increase that has been recorded in the rates for naval transport. Well, this is looking at the effect it can have, as long as supply chains don't collapse like they did in 2021.

18. It's not especially serious, but it could contribute to that 0.6, 0.7, 0.8 percentage point of inflation, which instead of leaving inflation at two, could leave it at three, and that would prove Rey Dalio right. Although, dear Ray, wanting to qualify your comments, I would say that the market has indeed discounted those geopolitical risks, but it has discounted them all, especially those against China.

19. In other words, here you have the evolution of the Hanen and the S&P 500 since the start of the trade war with Donald Trump in 2018. I think the market is indeed pricing in this conflict between the two major powers. It's just that they see a clear American victory; that is, they're betting that the US will clearly win by a landslide.

20. This could change, it might not change, we'll see. Are they wrong? We'll see. The United States, in general, has been winning economic wars, it must be acknowledged. It's not true that Russia has gotten a little ahead, but neither has the United States been particularly harmed; rather, who has paid the price?

21. More like Europe. Well, that's the situation. I think it has been priced in, but especially by China. That is, China is going to get burned in this conflict. What do you think about these risks? Do we have ways to protect ourselves from these risks? Is it coherent to sell part of your stock portfolio to buy, for example, precious metals or some type of physical asset?

22. Can you think of other ways to protect yourselves from these kinds of risks? Because they aren't financial risks, they aren't risks that we can evaluate in stocks; they are political conflicts that go beyond... of our capabilities, no more than what we can see or evaluate. Anyway, if you liked the video, a like would be greatly appreciated.

23. Of course, if you had subscribed, you would have already seen yesterday's video we made with José, where we talked at length about these topics, which I think you found interesting. This video will interest you; I'll put the link to the next one in the description. Anyway, a big hug, have a great weekend, and see you very soon.