저자: MichaelBurry · 외국인
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마이클 버리는 인플레이션이 정점을 찍었지만 이것이 마지막 정점은 아니며, 2023년 하반기 CPI 하락(마이너스 가능)과 미국 경기침체가 예상되고 이후 연준이 금리를 인하·통화를 발행하면서 인플레이션이 재차 급등할 것이라고 주장한다. 배경으로 2022년 연준이 기준금리를 거의 0%에서 4.5%까지 올렸고 인플레이션은 하락 추세지만, 고금리가 장기간 유지되면 대출 부담이 커져 정치적 압력으로 금리 인하가 나올 수 있다고 본다. 역사적 근거로 1970년대 사례를 든다. 1970년 인플레이션 5%에 금리를 9%로 두었다가 조기 인하해 1974년 11%로 재상승했고, 1980년 14%까지 올라 폴 볼커가 금리를 20%까지 올리며 심각한 침체를 감수해야 했다는 것이다. 찰리 멍거도 같은 맥락으로 1970년대 정치 환경에서 가능했던 볼커식 강경책이 지금은 어려워 인플레이션이 재가속할 수 있다고 봤다고 소개한다. 제롬 파월 연준 의장은 1970년대 실패를 의식해 조기 완화를 경계한다고 기자회견에서 밝혔지만, 버리는 실제 실행 여부는 별개라고 본다. 버리는 6월 주식시장 20% 폭락 후에도 저점은 아직 아니라고 보았고, 9월에는 S&P500이 2020년 코로나 저점 아래로 떨어질 수 있다고 언급해 향후 수년간 매우 비관적임을 드러냈다. 진행자는 연준이 2023년에 인플레이션을 완전히 억제할지, 인플레이션이 얼마나 끈질길지를 시청자에게 질문하며 마무리한다.
다듬은 글
Michael burry who many know is the guy in this movie is not the kind of man who was afraid to put his reputation on the line by making both economic predictions he has done it many times over the years and the scary thing is that he usually turns out to be right in 2006 and 2007 he was ridiculed by investors when he predicted the collapse of the U.S housing market but in 2008 he turned out to be 100 percent right in February 2021 he predicted a massive spike in U.S inflation at a time when according to the latest data the inflation rate was less than 2 percent let's move to today right and again in July 2021 he predicted the greatest speculative bubble of all time what do you know stocks and cryptocurrencies collapsed during 2022 in September 2022 he predicted a white collar recession and look what we have now Mass layoffs are happening all over the technology sector this this guy certainly knows how to make good predictions and he recently made another bold prediction and I'm not going to lie that this latest prediction if it turns out to be correct will have more serious Economic Consequences than anything he has said in the last few years so what is his stock market prediction for 2023 well let's find out Michael burry has continued to rage on Twitter over the last month or so and interestingly enough it seems at least now he's no longer deleting his tweets so it's much easier for us to follow him now but staying on topic on January 2 burry shared with us his thoughts on the economic situation we're all going to see over the next few years and here's what he had to say quote inflation has peaked this is not the last peak of the cycle we are likely to see a decline in CPI and probably negative in the second half of 2023 and the U.S is in a recession by any definition the FED will cut the government will stimulate printing money and we will have a spike in inflation it's not complicated I'm always amused by the confidence with which bury makes these predictions come on guys it's not that hard of course it's going to happen although I must apologize Michael I hope you're wrong because in fact bury predicts that the current downward Trend in inflation that we're seeing is just the end of the first wave of inflation and we're likely to see several more waves of inflation over the next few years because the Federal Reserve doesn't have the willpower to keep rates High yes it could potentially cause a recession but keep rates high and thereby suppress inflation once and for all and the reason this potential situation immediately sends shivers down investors spines is because it would be the same scenario that happened in the 1970s but first of all a little context about what the heck is going on over the last few years we've seen a combination of supply chain problems and money Printing and both of those things together have caused inflation to spike to its highest level in 40 years this has forced the U.S federal reserve to go to higher interest rates in order to slow the economy limit the ability of citizens and businesses to access borrowing and thereby limit spending but of course this also causes the economy to slow down and everyone finds themselves under increased Financial pressure it is essentially a choice of the lesser of two evils do you want to just let inflation run rampant and everything become increasingly unaffordable or do you want to raise interest rates and impose financial hardship on your nation for a period of time to suppress demand for goods and services which will force inflation to calm down history tells us to do just that and what we saw in 2022 is that the FED raised rates to four and a half percent from near zero percent and yet inflation is now trending downward but here's the thing people do suffer in periods of high interest rates they're not too high now but they're projected to continue Rising through 2023 and high interest rates mean that for people debts like mortgages and personal loans eat up more and more of their disposable income until they have no money left to spend on other things so the decision to keep interest rates high for a long time is certainly not a popular one inevitably therefore there is strong political pressure from the public to lower interest rates after all lower interest rates make people feel better and politicians want to make people happy besides the chairman of the Federal Reserve is appointed by the president so all the political pressure is to get rates lowered but if this is done prematurely inflation could Skyrocket and then for all the financial pain you have caused by trying to stop inflation you will be out of luck the problem will not be solved and you will be back to square one that's exactly what happened in the 1970s in 1970 inflation crept up to the five percent Mark and the effective federal funds rate was then 9 percent so what do you know inflation dropped to three percent and the FED lowered interest rates but in 1974 inflation crept back up to 11 and then rates were raised again this time to 13 eventually inflation fell again to six percent in 1976 and the fonc relaxed again saying that inflation was going away and cut interest rates again to five percent but too soon inflation soared to 14 in 1980 and it took the intervention of Paul volcker who raised interest rates to 20 percent and unfortunately sent the U.S into a severe recession for inflation to finally be defeated this is exactly what Michael burry predicts for the U.S over the next few years he doesn't believe we've learned our lesson tilting history in his direction again inflation will calm down rates will remain elevated the U.S will fall into recession people will suffer the policy will put pressure on the FED to lower in interest rates and stimulate the economy which will cause the next wave of inflation you might think that bury is a little out of touch with such a bold prediction but interestingly enough he's not the only famous super investor who has expressed this opinion another very famous person you probably know who also believes that the fed's willpower won't be strong enough to beat inflation is Charlie Munger who invoker after the 70s took the primary to 20 percent and the government was paying 15 percent on its government bonds that was a horrible recession lasted a long time caught with a lot of agony and I certainly hope we're not going there again I think the conditions that allowed volcker to do that without an interference from the politicians were very unusual 2020 hindsight it was a good thing that he did it I would not predict that our modern politicians will be as willing to permit a new Volker to get that tough with the economy and bring on that kind of a recession so I think the new troubles are likely to be different from the old troubles you may wish you had you had a vocal style recession instead of what you're going to get the troubles that come to us could be worse than what Volker was dealing with it is very interesting that Charlie Munger and Michael burry basically hold this line of thinking in their view the political environment that allowed volcker to be tough and stop inflation in the 1970s may not exist today and so we may see a period where inflation goes into overdrive because the FED will get caught in a cycle of trying to lower interest rates and then being forced to raise them again although frankly Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve have repeatedly indicated in several press conferences that they are committed to making sure that doesn't happen so Jerome Powell acknowledged the inflationary cycles of the 1970s and said that the Fed was committed to ensuring that such a situation would not arise this time I'll show you an excerpt from the latest fomc press conference and listen to him mention the fed's failures in the 1970s at the end of the clip for me this is the most important quote historical experience warns against a premature loosening of policy we will stay the course until the job is done so make no mistake the Federal Reserve is well aware of everything that happened in the 1970s and says they intend not to make the same mistakes again but while the Federal Reserve is saying all this Michael burry's opinion still stands because the FED may be saying all this now but whether they will actually follow it is another question entirely and that's what both Charlie Munger and Michael burry are saying of course the FED wants to get inflation back to the two to three percent level that would be great but if they have to keep raising and raising interest rates and it causes a nasty recession it means that many Americans will lose their jobs and won't be able to afford their mortgages will there be enough political willpower to continue and properly control inflation or will the political pressure be too great to keep people happy and loosen monetary policy namely to cut rates and print money as bury said we are likely to see CPI decline possibly negative in the second half of 2023 and the U.S will find itself in a recession by any definition the FED will cut interest rates the government will stimulate money Printing and there will be another big spike in inflation that's Michael burry's latest prediction and it certainly matches his previous tweets that's for sure in late June after the stock market collapsed 20 percent bury noted that he thought we were only halfway there in response on September 7 he said Mel we haven't bottomed out yet and earlier he said he expected the S and P 500 to fall below the 2020 covid loss so there is no doubt that he is very bearish on the next few years and it seems that his distrust of the Federal Reserve is the main reason for that but with that said guys please let me know your thoughts and opinions in the comments section below do you think the FED will have the courage to suppress inflation once and for all in 2023 how sticky will inflation be that's the question anyway guys please leave a like on this video if you liked it subscribe if you want to see more videos like this and see you in future videos
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