저자: Investing Uncomplicated · 외국인
요약 보기
이 영상은 중간선거를 앞두고 투자자들이 느끼는 불안을 다루며, 1950년 이후 중간선거 후 12개월 동안 S&P 500이 19번 모두 상승했다는 통계를 핵심으로 제시합니다. 발표자는 중간선거 직전 12개월 평균 수익률이 약 3%로 상대적으로 낮았고, 선거 후 12개월 평균 상승률은 9~12% 수준이라고 설명합니다. 또한 중간선거가 있던 해에는 선거 전에 시장이 바닥을 찍는 경향이 있었다고 주장합니다. 의회가 분점될 때 주식시장이 더 잘 되는 경향이 있고, 월가는 정치적 교착 상태를 선호한다는 주장도 담겨 있습니다. 한편 1874년 이후 중간선거 다음 해 시장 상승 사례는 38번 중 32번(84%)이라는 통계도 언급됩니다. 영상 후반부에는 무료 투자 강의 참여를 권유하는 내용이 포함되어 있습니다. 다만 영상에서 제시된 통계의 출처와 정확성은 원문만으로 검증되지 않으며, 과거 성과가 미래를 보장하지 않는다는 점도 발표자 스스로 언급하고 있습니다.
다듬은 글
Hello everyone! I hope you are well . Listen, I'm on my way now, friends. I 'm doing something important, you know? I'm somewhere else, but I had to get in touch because we have something really important to discuss. So, did you know that we have a big day on Tuesday? Tuesday is election day, midterm elections, and there's a lot of talk about that right now .
First of all, I want to encourage each and every one of you to go out and vote, okay? Vote on Tuesday, November 3. But people are worried, they think that the choices made on Tuesday will affect the future state of the stock market. This is a completely logical thought, and I don't blame anyone for such thoughts.
But did you know that since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen for 12 months after every midterm election? That's 19 times out of 19. Did you know that? The S&P 500 has risen in the 12 months following midterm elections 19 out of 19 times. But now, ordinary investors are nervous . They are just scared. They are numb with fear, holding onto cash and panicking about what will happen to their retirement savings if the wrong party wins.
While this week's headlines have focused on the Fed's rate decision and the volatility of tech giants, the real story is unfolding in the political cycle. So today I'll break down three historical facts about midterm elections and explain why Wall Street actually loves divided government. And I want to teach you how to act correctly in the conditions of what will happen after the elections.
This is what we will talk about today, because a lot of people are nervous. Many people think: you know, if the wrong people win, something terrible will happen. How can I invest right now? I know many are preparing to protect their assets. That's the reality. That's the reality. The S&P 500 index has been up every time in the 12 months since the midterm elections.
So, don't be afraid to invest your money right now. You should make sure that you have a clear understanding of the investments that should be in your portfolio and that you invest in them consistently. I teach people how to properly build their portfolios; Every Thursday at 7:00 PM I host a free investing class.
I left a link to this lesson in the comments. If you are interested in joining. So, here's what I want to do. I want to share with you some of the realities of what is happening after the midterm elections. I want to share some statistics with you. Of course? Because I don't want you to panic, go crazy, or think the sky is falling.
I want you to know the facts. So, here's the first one. Here is number one. The market usually struggles before midterm elections. If you look at the S&P 500's returns in the run-up to the midterm elections, the market remains relatively stable. Since 1950, the average market return in the 12 months before a midterm election has been only about 3%.
So, we are now at the end of this cycle. In the long term, the market is much stronger in the 12 months following the midterm elections, growing by 9-12% on average. That's the thing. And it will help clarify some of the perceptions people have about the separation of powers in Congress and how it affects your wallet.
I've heard some of you say that you vote for one political party because it's better for the stock market. Well , here's the reality. The stock market actually performs better when Congress is divided. When power is distributed evenly. That is, when one party controls the House of Representatives and the other the Senate.
Such is the reality. The stock market thrives in such conditions. The average decline from peak to trough in midterm election years is about 15%. Every year during midterm elections, the market bottomed out before election day. This means that stock market ups and downs related to elections usually reach their lowest levels before them.
So those who are worried about Tuesday's results and don't know what will happen to the market... History...although history doesn't always determine what will happen next, okay? Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. Of course? But we study the data and consider the past. History teaches us, and if that's the case, we've already seen the worst of the stock market, and it will only get stronger going forward .
Here is another point. Who wins matters less than you think. So, the post-election rally was happening...I made some notes here. I'll read them , okay? The post-election rally took place regardless of which party won. It doesn't matter how many seats have changed or who controls Washington. So, as I mentioned a minute ago, 19 times out of 19, the S&P 500 has gone up after a midterm election.
This happened regardless of how many seats were transferred or which party was in power. Here is another point. Markets often prefer a political dead end because fewer legislative surprises allow fundamentals to determine returns. So some of you may have just heard me say that Wall Street prefers a dead end in Congress.
They prefer a situation where one party controls the House of Representatives and the other the Senate. Because when that happens, there's less political wobble in legislation, you know? And in monetary policy. The situation is becoming more predictable. And in such an environment, the performance of companies depends on fundamentals, finances, and strategies, not on legislation.
So Wall Street prefers a dead end in Congress to complete one- party power because everything becomes more predictable. Most strategists expect a divided government. If you look at the polls and the numbers, one party is now expected to control either the House or the Senate. But the stalemate still carries risks.
Budget disputes could lead to a government shutdown and a standoff over the national debt limit in 2027, which has never been a positive for the stock market. So, I know this week... this week has been really crazy, my friends. Just this week, the Fed announced that it was leaving interest rates unchanged, completely ignoring rising inflation.
That's a topic for another video. Okay, but it happened this week. We had crazy earnings reports. Google did not live up to expectations. Google shares fell by several percent. Meta spoke about the issuance of new shares. There were concerns about capital erosion. So Meta shares fell another 10 %. Anthropic has announced that it is going public in a few weeks.
All this happened simultaneously. And while all this was going on, we were preparing for the midterm elections. Listen, as I said at the beginning of the video, I want you to go out and vote. I want you to vote consciously. Agreed? I want you to vote in a way that reflects the values on which our country was founded.
Ahem. And for those who believe that voting for one party would be best for the stock market. The purpose of this video was to dispel this idea . OK? After midterm elections, in 19 of the last 19 cases, the S&P 500 index has risen. He was going up. On average, it showed a result of 9 to 12%. OK? Regardless of which party is in power.
So the idea that a certain party should control Washington is not true. Because history proves it to us. So don't just vote with your wallets or what you consider to be wallet voting. Vote for what's best for America , but be sure to go out and vote anyway. Um, I don't want you to just sit at home. So, again, a few things that I've considered for a lot of people who have just joined.
So, as the midterm elections approach, and listen, if you want a more in-depth analysis, I'll be talking about this in my free class. I host my free investing class every Thursday at 7:00. And if you're interested in looking at the data, if you want to hear more about these statistics, I'll talk about them tonight.
OK? So, the stock market tends to struggle before midterm elections. OK? The return just before the midterm elections averages about 3%. But after midterm elections, the S&P 500 index rises by an average of 9% in the 12 months following the election. Every midterm election year, the market bottomed out before the election.
So if you're worried we'll hit rock bottom once the results come in. History shows us that this did not happen. We usually hit rock bottom before elections. OK? But you want to be prepared. And here's the thing: for regular people, you shouldn't change your investments every time something new happens in politics or in the news.
You should already have a guideline of five to seven investments you should invest in . This shouldn't change much , friends. This way you are always investing. Always invest, okay? Regardless of the political climate. And if you don't know how to build such a portfolio, you should definitely make sure you're in class tonight.
So, someone asks, "How do I join Investing Uncomplicated?" Follow the link in the description of this video and you can join our class tonight. And that's a great way to start, okay? I will teach you how to invest correctly for the long term. I'll tell you about some strategies and what I look for in stocks.
Second, markets rise after the midterm elections. The S&P 500 index rises by 12.4% on average in the 12 months following midterm elections. The S&P 500 index rises by 12.4% on average in the 12 months following midterm elections. And these are statistics from US Bank. The stock market has risen in the year after a midterm election 32 times out of 38 since 1874.
Listen, 84% of the time since 1874, the year after a midterm election, the market has gone up. Now I'll tell you, I was preparing...well, not exactly preparing. I was mentally preparing myself for the fact that 2027 could be a bad year for the stock market. I was mentally preparing for this. Okay, just based on some other economic indicators.
But when I read these statistics, I thought, "Wow, maybe I shouldn't be as worried as I thought." Let me say that again, friends. Did you hear that? 32 out of 38 times since 1874, the stock market has risen in the year following a midterm election . This is 84% of cases. Of course, in 16% of cases this was not the case, and perhaps next year could become part of that statistic.
But all these people's thoughts that if Congress goes Democratic or "blue," it will be bad for the market. The data doesn't tell us that. In fact, the data suggests that the market doesn't care. The market doesn't care. So go and be sure to vote. OK. Let's see. What else do I want... I'll do one more thing.
Ahem. The most important thing in all of this, friends, is that the post-election rally took place regardless of which party won . It didn't matter how many seats changed or who controlled Washington . The stock market is a separate entity. Friends, so don't be afraid. Make sure you invest. If you want to learn more about how to shape your portfolio after the midterm elections, be sure to check out my free investing course.
It's Thursday, we do this every Thursday, not just today. Every Thursday at 7:00 PM Eastern Time. See you in the next issue.
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