Cyclical stocks are priced for a mild recession right now, says says Wharton's Jeremy Siegel

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결론: 경기 완만한 침체 가능성이 있고, 하반기 시장 상승 촉매는 제한적이라는 신중한 시각. 시장 현황: 연초 이후 S&P500은 약 13~14% 상승했으나 주로 성장주(секуляр 그로스 주식)가 이끌었다. 러셀2000 등 가치지수는 약 4% 상승에 그쳤다. 경기 인식: 경기민감주(cyclical)는 완만한 경기침체를 이미 반영한 가격이며, 실제로 그런 상황이 와도 놀랍지 않다고 봤다. 신용카드 발행사, 내구재 관련주, 자동차주는 2년 기준으로 여전히 크게 하락한 상태다. 인플레이션·금리: 현재 지표 기준 인플레이션은 6~8개월간 사실상 둔화됐고, 공식 지표에 잔여분이 반영되는 중이라고 봤다. 연준이 금리를 올릴 필요는 크지 않으며 연내 추가 인상 두 차례는 가능성이 낮다고 전망했다. 실질금리는 인플레 둔화로 오히려 긴축적이 된다고 지적했다. 금리 인하 가능성: 완만한 침체가 오면 금리 인상은 없을 것이고, 연내 인하 가능성도 배제하지 않는다는 취지로 말했다. 경기 지표: 최근 3개월 실업수당 청구건수가 높은 수준이며, 통화량(M2)은 12~13주 연속 감소 중이다. 실적 둔화 우려도 언급했다. 주택·소비: 지난 3년간 전국 주택가격은 약 50% 상승, 모기지 금리는 거의 3배가 되어 주택 보유 비용이 크게 올랐다. 실질소득은 정체돼 소비 여력이 줄고 있다고 봤다. 학자금 대출 상환 재개도 소비 부담 요인으로 꼽았다. 하반기 전망: 큰 재난을 예상하지는 않지만, 상승 촉매가 많지 않아 하반기에 변동성과 순환매가 클 수 있다고 봤다. 이전 연초 전망(S&P 10~15% 상승)은 상반기보다 하반기 상승을 기대했던 것이었다. 출연자 Tom Lee 언급: 앞선 출연에서 Tom Lee와 인플레이션 관련 의견을 주고받은 것으로 언급됨.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. a business professor Siegel good to see you this morning um so I I guess you're suggesting look we're sitting on uh 13 gain in the s p on a year-to-day basis as everybody has remarked it has been largely driven uh by a lot of the secular growth stocks that have gotten uh pretty excitable here but you actually think the market is registering the likelihood of downside risk to the economy yes I I do my you know I sat uh on CNBC on January 2nd and in the morning before the market opened and I was asked what do you think the Market's going to do s p this year and I said 10 to 15 I thought it was going to be the second half more than the first and yes total return has been 14.2 uh today interestingly enough you take the Russell 2000 uh or you take almost any value index and it's been four percent uh you know as it was as we said I I think basically the cyclical stocks are priced for a mild recession right now and um and again I wouldn't be surprised if that happened um and I think as a result we could get a lot of churn in the second half of this year you know Silly me thinking oh it's going to be the second half and of course Market looks ahead it turned out to be the 15 and the first half um but I you know it's hard to see a lot of upside catalysts for the market uh in the second half of this year um and uh you know we were talking you know you had Tom Lee on the show you know I've been saying that inflation basically with current indices has been dead really for six eight months and they're just getting the residuals through on their uh official indexes uh uh you know that that Powell is so concerned about and I I really think they're I think it's very likely we're not going to get those two increases by the end of the year yeah as many as even Powell has recognized you know keeping rates right here or maybe nudging them a little bit higher if inflation in fact is declining quickly you know the math says you're actually becoming more restrictive on monetary policy in real terms right so um I I guess the question is do you think that a a mild recession is something uh that would disturb the markets given the fact that we've kind of been living with this risk for a year in half at least and as you say if I look at the credit card issuers you know anything that's durable goods related even the auto stocks the traditional Auto stocks on a two-year basis they're down a lot still right well I I think you know the bright side of a mild recession is that not only will we not get rate increases but I think there's still and I've been saying this even though everyone thinks oh there's no possibility that we would get rate decreases by the end of the year so yeah they're not going to like oh yeah there's going to be some softness in some of those earnings they're going to like I think the interest rate consequences uh of this uh you know a couple things we all know jobless claims have not been looking good these last three months elevated um I'm very they're going to be two more before we get the June report um we're going to see the money supply report again tomorrow it's going to be I think the 12th or 13th consecutive decline in liquidity uh and earnings you know my my feeling is you know one thing I was thinking of that Blockbuster home builders um housing starts data that we get uh and everyone said oh yeah the economy's so fine but I think think about this um over the last three years home prices have gone up Nationwide 50 mortgage rates have almost tripled so that means if you're financing with an 80 mortgage the cost of home ownership has tripled over the period and what has happened to real incomes over the last three years stagnant so what I see is it's the biggest single component of consumer pricing that if you're moving and don't have all that cash in your home if you're a new home builder you're not going to have all this cash for consumption for trips for cars for everything else which is keeping the economy going so I I I'm you know again I'm looking at that we're looking at the student loan payment restarting we're looking at elevated jobless payments and I'm not talking about disaster but I you know when people are saying well what is on that upside um I just don't see as many factors