저자: Moriguchi · 외국인
요약 보기
5/12 미국장은 다우만 상승, 나머지 하락. CPI 전년비 3.8%로 예상 상회, 유가 100달러 상회로 인플레 우려. 한국 정부의 AI 호황 이익 공공 분배 제안이 소재 3% 하락 트리거. 소프트뱅크그룹(14~15일 실적 예정)·후지쿠라(실적 예정) 수급은 이전보다 가벼워졌으나 PER 84배로 실적 전망이 좋지 않으면 어렵다는 견해. 니케이 기술적으로는 상승 추세 유지 관점.
다듬은 글
's schedule for Wednesday, May 13th, is as follows. I'd like to talk about how Socks' stock price is expected to drop 3% today due to those earnings results . The reaction force is one that moves significantly both upwards and downwards, and the earnings report is also considered important for Japanese stocks.
SoftBank Group's Fujikura, for example, brings up these kinds of points. Yesterday, there were quite a few calculations and announcements, and I'd like to review that information. Please stay with us until the end today. Therefore, this channel will always update with focus on reasonable timeframes .
I will continue to explain things in a way that is easy to understand even when listening, using the simplest language possible . Please subscribe to our daily chart analysis channel, which is updated every morning . Let's get right into reviewing what happened yesterday. First, regarding Japanese stocks yesterday, they were up 324 yen .
The closing price was 62,742 yen . The price fluctuated quite a bit during the day, from a high of 63,218 yen to a low of 62,158 yen. And, well, there were times when it suddenly dropped sharply during the day, so I think it can be said that it was unstable. However, futures fell another 400 yen today, and gross prices, which had been quite strong, fell by 2.85%, so I felt that the trend or rather, the market was becoming a little volatile .
Well, I think that's partly because various earnings announcements have been coming out, but Fujikura's stock price has risen considerably, and although the earnings announcement hasn't been made yet, Furukawa Electric Industries hit the upper limit , so I feel like that kind of expectation is being carried over .
So, if it's made of iron and metal, then it's definitely strong. I think that other financial sectors, too, tend to experience larger fluctuations when it comes to financial reporting . Let's check out some US stocks. As of 4:33 AM, only the Dow Jones Industrial Average is in positive territory; everything else is in negative territory.
The decline in socks prices is quite noticeable. Publicly traded shares also showed more negative returns than positive ones . Looking at the damage map by utility, it's about half and half, but N-stacks are definitely in more sectors that are declining. On the other hand, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, particularly in the healthcare sector, is predominantly green.
And today, what I feel most strongly is that the reaction force has collapsed, or something like that . If that's the case, Nikkei futures will also be a bit weaker, down around 400 yen. Let's fast forward a bit later and take another look . Kawase Drain is 157 yen, now 53 yen. Long-term interest rates rose to 18.02, and crude oil was at 4.461.
This is a bit problematic, isn't it? As a result, gold futures fell. And cryptocurrencies are also a bit unstable. Major currencies are currently declining . Let's take a look . Socks fell by more than 3%. I'd like to talk about the upcoming earnings announcements from several important Japanese stocks .
First, as usual, let's look at s . The Dow opening halfway down was likely due to a combination of negative factors, including uncertainty in the Iranian situation and accelerating inflation. Well, regarding the situation in Iran, it's moving south, so I don't think much has changed in the current situation, but the fact that crude oil prices have risen a bit is something to be concerned about .
In addition, the CPI (Cost Percentage) was announced . The year-on-year increase in monthly expenses was 3.8%, which is quite a significant rise and exceeded our expectations. Given that the core economy was also strong , some concerns about inflation may have been raised. But, wait, it's 9:30 PM, right?
Looking at the time of the announcement, it's gone up a little bit here. So, well, I don't think it's a factor causing the price to fall . I'd like to take a look at the CPI article . Prices accelerated further in April, driven by increases in gasoline and food prices. There are n't many positive statements, and the fact that inflation is rising is certainly a cause for concern, but I think the reason why it's expected to fall, or even rise, isn't entirely clear .
So, when yields rise , inflation progresses, which makes it harder to cut interest rates . This could potentially push inflation even further . And if inflation continues to be pushed up, consumers will be left wondering what to do, and the economy will tend to stagnate . And when that happens, I think it becomes quite difficult .
I was concerned that if a so-called economic shift and inflation progressed simultaneously, resulting in stagflation, stock prices might become somewhat sluggish . Let's look at the top gainers and top losers indices . Wheat is ranked first, followed by crude oil in second place. The rising price of crude oil is quite concerning, isn't it?
Looking at the chart, it looks like this, and I have a strong impression that psychologically, it's tough when it goes above $100 . On the other hand, when it comes to the decline, socks definitely stand out, don't they? If you look at the trading volume rankings, you'll see that the stocks that had been rising rapidly until now have fallen relatively sharply today .
Well, it had gotten a bit too heated, so this kind of correction was to be expected, but naturally, the impression is that the drop was also larger because it had gone too far. Well, looking at the closing price of the socks, it seems like it continued to decline and remained in a bottoming-out pattern for quite some time, does n't it?
The conversion line is being maintained , and the R70 level has not been broken. So , is this one of the triggers for the reaction mechanism collapsing in this way? The South Korean government proposed that the profits from the AI boom be distributed to the public. Well, it seems that Samsung Electronics and others were down quite a bit, and it appears that this had some impact even in Japan time, but there was also a considerable impact in the US time .
I suppose people are more likely to react to news like this when there's a sense of excitement surrounding something . However, looking at the S&P 500 as a whole, the decline was limited to 0.12%, forming a key line and extending a lower shadow, which I think indicates that a breakout has occurred .
Well, that's one of the reasons why, even though the stock market fell by 3%, the Nikkei futures did n't experience such a huge decline . The highly anticipated meeting between Secretary of the Treasury, Betsusen, and Prime Minister Koichi didn't seem to involve any harsh demands from the American side, as evidenced by the fact that when asked if they had made any requests to the Prime Minister regarding monetary policy, Betsusen simply answered "brain ." Check out the "Goodbye Big Money" ranking .
Well, all of the top 5 stocks are up , but Jake's Metals did indeed experience a significant drop yesterday, just as I had feared . However, as expected, the wire and cable-related sector remains strong, and Furukawa Electric Industries' stock price, including its 10-for-1 stock split, hit the upper limit.
Well, influenced by that, Fujikura, whose announcement is scheduled for the 14th, also rose sharply, but yesterday the Socks Index fell by 3%. SanDisk's stock price has also fallen significantly. For example, looking at memory data, we can see that it has dropped by nearly 10% in this PTS market . The question is how it will move during trading hours, and if it breaks below the 5-day moving average, the trend might change a bit .
There was a significant turnout rate for this one too, so let's keep a close eye on it. The earnings announcement is on the 15th, so there are about 2 to 3 days left . So, the company scheduled to make the announcement today is SoftBank Group. This appears to be an earnings announcement made after the market closes.
I think there's a good chance of the market heating up, so I'll keep an eye on the supply situation . And then there's Fujikura. This is also on the 14th, but I think it will probably be around 2 o'clock, so I think it will be a regular earnings announcement. Today, I'd like to just quickly take a look at the supply and demand for these two stocks and then wrap things up .
Yes, let's start with SoftBank Group. Matsui Hatsumi: Using the app, you can measure your hourly wage and trading activity for the day , which is very convenient, so please check the URL in the description box if you're interested. Oh, it went up 4.24% yesterday, and both credit manipulation and short selling decreased.
The number of shares available for credit restructuring has decreased by 1.9 million to 25.19 million . The number of credit manipulations shown now as of May 1st is considerably less, so in that respect, I think it can be said that the burden on recipients has become a little lighter as of yesterday .
However, looking at the credit ratio, it's still above 5 times, so I do n't think the demand for receiving funds is extremely heavy. But we'll have to wait and see how things go after the financial results are released . Also, it's getting quite close to the 5-day moving average, so I think we need to be a little careful with that.
Next up is Fujikura. yes. Fujikura has been displayed. Yesterday, the stock price rose by 11.59%, influenced by Furka Electric Industries, but usage has decreased. It's not a huge change, at 490,000 shares, but with 12.31 million shares, the supply and demand situation is expected to be lighter than on May 1st.
While short selling decreased yesterday, it has increased since May 1st, so the margin trading ratio is looking lighter. And so, the financial settlement is being approached with a light balance of payments. Well, I think there's a considerable amount of capital on the stock, including the actual shares , and the PR is 84 times, so unless the earnings outlook is very good, I think it will be tough.
Also, Furukawa Electric Industries has a stock price of 50,000 yen, and the 10-for-1 split was quite impactful news, but as for Fujikura, it's currently at 7,624 yen, so I think whether there's a split or not will be a factor, but I don't think the split will have the same impact as it did for Furukawa Electric Industries .
Well, I'll keep those points in mind as I follow the earnings announcements tomorrow. So, here's a summary of today's video. US stocks were awaited, with only the Dow Jones showing positive growth, the CPI rising, crude oil exceeding $100, and the situation in Iran improving . Well, if inflation continues to progress like this, and that starts to affect the economy, it could lead to concerns about stagnation, so I'm quite worried.
The trigger for today's 3% drop in Socks stock price was news that the South Korean government will distribute the profits from the AI boom to the public . I don't know how much influence this will have, but I think news like this is likely to trigger a reaction when things are already heated. There were no particular surprises regarding the Japan-US stairs .
And so, there will be more noteworthy earnings reports coming up. Well, Ibide and Furkar Electric saw a fairly solid rise, but JX Metals fell. As a result, it's still a matter of waiting . Memory Shear's PTS (Pre-Trading Session) has fallen relatively sharply due to the impact of SanDisk and the subsequent decline in stock prices .
The earnings announcement is scheduled for the 15th. I think SoftBank Group will close today. Fujikura will be the one to fish tomorrow . The changes in supply and demand are n't that big, and they're not extremely heavy, but I think they will still be a trigger for significant changes, so let's keep a close eye on the calculations that are released .
Now, let's check each index using the daily Ichimoku Kinko Hoshi RSI . Now, let's check the discount price . As expected, only the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended up in positive territory, but, as can be said for the index as a whole, it has recovered solidly over the past five weeks, so I think it's starting to look like it's bottomed out.
Following that trend, the Nikkei Hardware index is down 257 yen . I'm relieved that the decline wasn't that significant . Let's start by looking at the Nikkei Stock Average. Yesterday I was up 324 yen. Well, I suppose you could say it was strong , but since it failed to break new highs, both during trading hours and at the close, it ended up being a bit of a disappointing result .
I think that breaking above the recent high as quickly as possible will solidify the upward trend. However, futures are down again today, but it's not a huge drop, so I don't think there's any chance of a reversal, and I don't think there's any need to change my stance. But I don't like it if it takes too long, so I have a feeling that I want it to break through sooner rather than later.
The TOPIX has formed a key line and surpassed its recent high, and judging from the trend around here, it appears to be in an upward trend, so I think the reaction force has calmed down a bit and there is a slight tendency for a rebound here as well. Futures are down today, but let's keep a close eye on how the TOPIX index moves.
This is the Growth 250 Index. I have a strong feeling that the price has fallen because the momentum it had been building up up to this point was just too strong. There's no indication of a selling opportunity, so let's take another look at today's market movements . This is the New York Dow Jones Industrial Average.
It's up 0.11%, but that's not much more than the previous winning streak. It's not broken or anything, so I don't think there's any need to change our perspective at all . Huh, Third Pigg is down 0.16% . I believe the highest price has been maintained in the form of a good rebound and subsequent extension in the 5th session, so you don't need to change your basic view .
Regarding the stack, I think it maintained a bottom shape with a long downward slope and a clear line , but the fact that it ended up looking like the tenth battle leaves me with some concerns as a standalone candlestick . That's the Russell 2000, right? This one looks like it might be a bearish candlestick with a top at the opening, but the fact that it's extending its lower shadow without breaking through the top suggests it might be a good pattern.
Lastly, socks. socks. yes. Well, this one's also stretched out at the bottom, but does it look a bit like the Crusader War? Well , those are some of the concerns, and it seems likely that the selling pressure and the break below the conversion line will coincide, so if the price continues to fall, I think it would be wise to be a little more cautious .
yes. So, there are quite a few important earnings announcements coming out for Japanese stocks today . The Kiokuichi event is on the 15th, SoftBank Group's is today, and Fujikura's is tomorrow . Well, along with that, a lot of other stocks will really come into play, so I want to make sure that the impact of those stocks is properly reflected in the movement of their stock prices , and as the situation in Iran is still moving southward , I will continue to monitor the movement of crude oil prices as well .
Please join us again tomorrow. Please allow me to wait for you today . This magazine analyzes individual stocks , but every Friday I honestly talk about what I want to do in investing and my trading of stocks that I've decided to sell. If you're interested, the URL for the notes is in the description box, so please check it out.
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