저자: VishalKumar · 외국인
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개인 투자자가 기관보다 초기 성장주 발굴에서 우위를 가질 수 있으며, 리서치 없이 투자하는 것은 도박이라고 주장. 피터 린치식으로 성장률·시장규모 기준 6개 범주(저성장주, 스태먼, 고성장주, 경기순환주, 자산주, 턴어라운드)로 분류하고 포트폴리오를 주기적으로 재분류해야 한다고 설명. 특정 종목의 향후 가격 방향에 대한 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
we are going to continue our discussion on Peter Lynch investment strategy as per one up on Wall Street. So till now we have discussed how common people or local consumer have an edge over the wall street experts and the analysts when it's come to picking up stocks at an early stage of the development.
So in this video let's let's continue our discussion. So let's say you you got a lead for any stock that can be from your stock broker or maybe you saw some company in your neighborhood doing pretty good. Now discovery of the stock is not the factor to consider when you are investing in stock. Research is a crucial part and investing in a stock without research is just gambling in the stock market.
So if you lose money in the market, it's not because of the ill fate but because you didn't do proper research. So the first step when you are doing any research on any stock is to understand what is the market size of the company. So the market size of the company is going to give you a brief idea what kind of returns to expect from the company.
So for example if we consider a company let's say Apple. So it is already a $3.4 $4 trillion company and the chances of it becoming uh 10x of what is it today which is like $34 trillion company is quite slim because they are already all over the world and selling their products all over the world where are they going to expand next maybe mass but that's not possible I think in the near future so market size is one of the crucial part uh when when we are researching our stock because there are smaller companies with let's say let's say a few million dollars or a thousand crores.
So in that kind of stocks we can we can say that our investments could 10x or 20x in returns which are the multiagger stocks that we need to look at. So when we are building up a portfolio we should have not just fast growers but different kind of stocks as well. So in this video, let's classify stocks based on their growth and market size and what are the reasons to look at when you're investing in these kind of stock.
The six categories in which the company can be generalized relative to others in that industry are going to be slow growers, stalwarts, fast growers, cyclical, asset plays and turnarounds. So let's discuss about all these companies. So the first is the slow growers. So these are the companies that are growing just slightly better than the GMPP of the country.
So G&P is the gross national product. So when some specific industry slows down, hence the company in that industry and the stock slowdowns as well. So for example, if you have a look at the NMDC, so which is National Mineral Development Corporation. So we can see that from 2012 to 2023 which is on which is around 11 years the stock is just ringing at the same pace and recently it has started to go a little bit up.
So these are the companies that that do not grow as fast as the other fast growers and just little bit than the G&P of of the country. The another sign of a slow grower is that they pay dividends generously. And one of the main factors of giving dividends in general is that the company itself does not have enough ideas to to expand the business.
So if the company itself is not growing uh neither its stock is going to be next uh let's discuss about stalwords. So these are the companies that that are growing actually better than the slow growers which which is around 10 to 12%. And depending upon when you are buying these stocks you can make a sizable gain.
So the kind of returns to expect from these kind of companies are like 50% in in two to three or four years. So consider companies like HDFC Bank. So we can see that we can expect a good amount of returns if we are holding it for for some time and which is like 40 30 40 50% and these are the kind of returns to get delighted about.
But one thing that these companies offer is uh good protection during the time of recession because we can be sure about these companies that during recession they are not going anywhere. They are not going bankrupt. they're not going out of business and sooner or later they are going to catch up the price that that they should be at.
So if we look at SDFC Bank so the during COVID recession the stock tanked a bit but sooner or later that like one year it just got back up to what it was trading before the recession. So these do provide returns and these do provide protection during the time of recession. Now the next is the fast growers.
So these are the companies that you should be looking at when you're thinking of multiplying your money by let's say 2x, 3x or 10x. So these are the land of multibaggers and these are the companies that are growing in double digit earnings which is let's say 20 30% this kind of growth that you can see in the in their in the balance sheet and one thing to note is that recently there's been a AI hype and the company uh in the in the AI industry are doing pretty good.
It's not just the industry but the stocks as well and it's not necessary that the companies that are fast growers should should be in the fast growing industry. So there can be companies let's say hotel industry which is not a fast growing industry in itself but there can be some stocks that are doing pretty good.
So let's have an example for that and pretty good example would be Swiggy and in the last couple of years it been doing pretty good and stock as well. So the main point or the main factor that you should be looking at when investing is how good is the balance sheet. So the only trick is to realize when to buy this stock and when it's time to sell the stock because it is not not growing as it used to be.
And the only way that you can analyze that is by going through how the business work by understanding more about the business and the balance sheet. So are they making uh substantial growth? They are making substantial profits and the earnings are compounding and these can give you the actual returns and with small portfolio one or two of these kind of stocks can be life-changing.
Let's talk about the cyclical. So these are the stocks as the name suggest which goes into the cycles and the the profits the earnings grow grow in cycles. So there can be some years and the stock is doing pretty good and there can be some years that when the business is not going good hence their stock as well.
So so these are the stocks in which you can see cycles on a regular basis which can be predictable and non-predictable and for example uh these these stocks can be of automotive industry or chemical industry or some airline industry. So a good example would be like the Maruti stock. So the main trick when you're investing in the cyclical stocks is the timing.
Entering in a bad time in the cyclical stocks and ending up in the best bad phase of a cycle could lead to a huge loss. But when we are coming out of a recession uh so this is the time when the cyclical stock flourishes and the profits and earnings as well. So this is the best time when you can invest in cyclical and can get a sizable gain.
So yeah, detecting the signs of the cycles early on can give you a huge boost in your returns that you can expect from these kind of companies. So next is the turnarounds. So there are specifically three to four reasons uh about the turnaround stocks. So a great example for that can be Suzon energy and it was I think on the verge of bankruptcy in in in around 2020 and after that it has turned around to be a multibagger.
So basically it was trading uh trading it was just a penny stock uh one or two rupees and currently it is at 60 and a high of around 80 to 90. So this is the multibagger turnarounds uh that you can say. So the the the few reasons that a stock can become a turnaround is first it is the some kind of tragedy that has happened to to the business.
So that can be some kind of some kind of accident some kind of some kind of trade deals that have not gone through correct or some kind of government regulation that has that has led to the stock price rally down. Other is because of the bad management or some some poorly managed cyclical or some restructuring in the in the management because of which this these companies tanked down.
And third is uh when we are talking about some conglomerate which which is on a verge of bankruptcy and there are certain business uh which are subsidiaries of those conglomerate and when we spun off that perfectly managed businesses that can lead to a turnaround business and can do pretty well because rather than going down with the parent company it can it can trade on its own and do pretty well as a business and the stock as well.
And fourth is when there are companies that that are planning to diversify the business getting into other segments but ends up worsening their own business and hence the stock price goes down. So these were the few few things that could lead a business to go down on a verge of bankruptcy or or maybe their stock price go down pretty low and you as an investor has to pick up those stocks at that time to get the multibagger returns from from these turnaround companies.
So next is the asset plays. So I don't have any example for that. These are the companies that are sitting on something valuable and which was overlooked or ignored by the Wall Street experts or the analysts and these something valuable can be anything maybe pile of cash or real estate or some patents related to their products or or maybe drugs.
So this is the place where having a local edge about the industry or the company can give you a significant boost on your returns when you invest in these companies. So consider some kind of real estate company and you you see in the neighborhood that the real estate in that particular area are boosting up and and this is overlooked by the world experts when when analyzing a business.
So that is the time when when you should invest in that stock because when the wall street get to know about this they are going to invest a lot and hence the price is going up. So these are the asset plays that you should be looking at and having a local edge does benefit you a lot. Okay. So these were broadly the six categories in which you can classify a stock based on their growth and the market size.
And one thing to note is that a stock is not going to stay forever in a in a specific category. So let's say Zumato it is growing at a fast rate as of now which is let's say 20 30% yearon-year growth but at a at one point it is going to become a meteor grower which is stalwward and there can be some kind of serious issue with the business and it can go down and can become maybe a cyclical or go bankrupt and then pick up and can become a turnaround.
So here the thing is that you should be analyzing your portfolio on a regular basis and rearrange the stocks based on the current growth market size the business aspects and reanalyze the stocks and recategorize them accordingly. So so that was uh today's video and in the next video we are going to analyze more about the stocks.
So after categorizing the stocks we are going to fill up more details about the stock looking at the balance sheet and and uh their business and then we are going to make a decision if this is a good investment or not. .
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