저자: Kevin · 외국인
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UBS가 금을 경기침체 선행지표로 보고 과거(1972·1978·2008) 침체기에 금이 2~3배 올랐다는 분석을 냈다는 것을 소개. 실질금리 마이너스 전환, 은행 대출성장 둔화, 서브프라임 자동차·상업용 부동산 연체 등 균열 신호를 언급. 다만 현재 경기침체 확신은 없다고 선을 그음. 금은 온스당 2,400달러 부근에서 거절됐고 최근 수개월 15~20% 상승. 개인은 바릭골드 소량 보유, 투자 조언 아님을 강조.
다듬은 글
you don't believe what UBS had to say about gold today and it is a red flag for the economy it's pretty loud out here so let's run in really quick okay so UBS came out with a piece and suggested that gold might indeed be a leading indicator not just of those geopolitical tensions that we're seeing but also of recessionary fears and they gave prices for where gold can go in recessionary times they use three examples 1972 1978 and 2008 in each of those instances gold doubled or tripled in value now this makes sense it corresponds with a recession it also corresponds with real rates going negative which also makes sense just so you know that's a really fancy way of basically saying the FED is cutting interest rates below the level of inflation they do that because they want to stimulate the economy and minimize the fact that oh no we actually have a potential recession on our hands and that'll lead to joblessness and then the other side of the fed's Dual mandate becomes a lot more important which is the labor side at the same time though gold and gold related stocks moved substantially uh again look them up yourself one of the easiest ways to get exposure might be a gold-based ETF which might be like an I I don't have any exposure to I another one uh that a lot of folks are paying attention to which I do have exposure to is uh baric gold that's just a gold mining company they've got somewhere around 7 to800 million of free cash flow they've got a substantial set of assets relative to the debts they have they're about 50% debt relative to their actual like plant property and Equipment which makes a lot of sense that you would Finance some of your equipment uh or your land and while there's still work to do in terms of a full fundamental analysis on that company it is interesting as a potential macro hedge and that's what a lot of folks are paying attention to is gold potentially a macro Hedge for recession now here's the problem with pitch and gold and I don't want to come across pitching gold but this is UBS suggesting that if we go into a recession gold could do really well and guess what could do really poorly equities now that makes sense it would make sense that equities wouldn't do that well in a recession and gold would do really well and the question right now is do we really see signs of a recession and so on that front no we don't lagging indicators are doing very well like jobs uh but again lagging indicators one of the signs we got from the banks today was actually from a company like you may have heard of them JP Morgan and Chase and what did they tell us loan growth is finally slowing and so net interest margins or net interest income is starting to grow at a slower Pace or decline and a lot of folks thought that the growth that we were seeing at Banks would not end that's a little bit of a problem because when you get markets that assume growth isn't going to stop you get frothy valuation this is potentially what you've seen in the AI trade as well speaking of trade by the way I had a bad day yesterday uh yesterday on a day trade I was down like at one point like $35,000 we ended that day trade down uh net net with the gains and losses down about 10,200 so that sucked uh and I I did a whole explanation video in the course member live this morning in terms of mistake I made and how I could prevent that in the future the good news is I implemented part of the strategy and today we were able to day trade call options on Tesla when it hit its floor twice and pulled out a 20K gain we also pulled some other trade uh this morning which uh which also worked out pretty well depending on uh the timing of how you played it so point of this is if you want all those stocks and psychology of money Mone trade alerts make sure you're part of them not always a win but even in the losses there are big lessons and they help us set up for wins the next day so check those out you get all the trade linked down below now as far as recession do I am I all of a sudden a recession bear no I'm I'm re I'm just reading to you what UBS is warning UBS put out a big piece yesterday and other companies like macro ear and other researchers are going oh wa they're paying attention to this what's interesting is about a month ago we did a piece on the channel where we talked about Goldman Sachs saying hey now might be a time to go long volatility as a hedge to your portfolio so you buy call options on like the vix for example or a derivative of the vix that ended up working out really well over the last week or so because I mean the vix today was up like 25% so sometimes what these researchers are saying in terms of hey like I want to pay attention to this they're not without Merit consider for a moment that yes with the time potentially to set up a hedge for a recession is when nobody's expecting a recession we've gone from last year everybody thinking there was a 50% chance of recession to like now most people going ah we're probably back to normal levels like 20% chance of recession the problem though is the longer we keep rates higher for longer the longer we basically start putting pressure against the recessionary wall and then things start to break things start to break when we start seeing debt bubbles starting to explode not seeing that so much yet you're seeing pain in a subprime Autos we saw that in the FED minutes we saw that in the um JPM earnings call uh and we're seeing a lot of commercial property distress but not so much in multifam that's being considered relatively stable we're seeing rents stabilize but we are seeing people who have a lot of debt buy now pay later date debt Consumer Debt uh you know variable interest R uh rate loan debt and so we're seeing foreclosures start to rise certainly in the multif family side and also on FHA so some of the early signs of cracking are starting to show up and that might be why gold hit $2,400 an ounce today now we did get rejected at $2,400 an ounce we're back down to 2350 but based on that UBS survey a lot of folks think or maybe not survey their research a lot of folks think hm does it actually make sense to start exposing yourself to maybe you know 1 to 5% gold as a hedge I don't know it really requires a recession for that to play out if you don't get a recession you might be buying at levels where Gold's already gone up a chunk you know we're up somewhere around what $3 $400 just over the last few months on on a you know per ounce basis of gold which is somewhere around 15 20ish per.
so it's possible that if we just keep getting great economic news maybe that's a bad move and I'm not advocating for anything one way or another but what I am saying is UBS is under the impression there's a big opportunity there and again when what they say is watch for real rates going negative because it pumps gold watch for recessions because it pumps gold in 72 78 look at the chart in 2008 2 to 3x I think it was 3X 3X and 2x if I remember correctly so again not here to Shi it got a tiny bit of exposure to baric Gold it's super super nominal and I don't even know if that's the best play yet so it's not certainly not research here this is not Financial advice it's not personal advice by any means uh these are just opinions based on what I read from UBS we read that in our course member live stream uh and and and we talked about it in our public live a little bit this morning and I wanted to go a little bit more into detail on it uh and how it's somewhat relating to what we're seeing with banks concerns about debt uh and uh as sort of a hedge tool which we saw pitched with the vix as well and Goldman was right on that so what I want to know now is Will UBS be right as well let me know Trade alerts again we're up 20K today and that is financing my trip today cuz we're looking at real estate out here and I pay for the flights and I think I just paid for a lot of fuel let's go
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