Legendary investor Bill Miller says Amazon's e-commerce business is selling for free

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결론: 아마존은 저평가 상태이며 AWS와 광고 사업만으로 현재 시총을 거의 설명하고 전자상거래(소매)는 사실상 공짜로 얻는 셈이라는 주장. [Bill Miller 주장 - 가치 평가] 미국 대형 기술주(애플, 아마존, 알파벳, 메타)는 비싸지 않고 전반적으로 좋은 가치를 제공한다는 견해. 아마존 1997년 IPO 매수가 본인 최고의 투자 결정이었고, 주식 매도가 최악의 결정이었다고 강조, 아마존 주식을 장기간 집중 보유 중이며 프로젝트 원 포트폴리오에서 가장 큰 비중 중 하나. [성과 부진 원인] 최근 12개월 시장 대비 상당히 저조. 대규모 설비투자(capex) 사이클 진행 중이고, 시장은 이 투자가 자본비용을 넘는 수익을 낼지 확신하지 못하는 상태. [AWS 가치 평가] AWS를 경쟁사(마이크로소프트, 세일즈포스 등 SaaS) 가중 배수로 평가하면 AWS 단독으로 약 1.5조 달러, 아마존 현재 시총에 거의 필적. [광고 사업] 광고 사업은 메타·알파벳 평균 P/S로 평가하면 시총의 약 95~100%에 해당. 즉 전 세계 소매 사업을 사실상 무료로 얻는 구조라는 주장. [물류 및 자산 규모] 올해 아마존이 미국 내 배송 물량에서 UPS를 추월할 전망. 올해 창고 공간 1억2,200만 평방피트 증설 예정(월마트 약 1억3,600만 평방피트, 50년 역사 대비 아마존 1996년 상장). [향후 전망] 설비투자 사이클이 마무리되면 잉여현금흐름(FCF)이 향후 수년간 크게 증가할 것으로 기대, 현재 가치 매력적이라는 결론. 물류 사업은 UPS·페덱스에 근접, 향후 추월 가능성도 언급. [리스크·조건] 단기 주가는 설비투자 우려에 따라 부진할 수 있음. 자본비용 초과 수익 달성 여부가 핵심 조건.

다듬은 글

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01. hey investors so i was watching this interview with the legendary bill miller and he was talking about uh some of the fang stocks and in particular he spoke about amazon so i want to share this clip uh where he talks about amazon the the big names in the market you know apple and amazon and alphabet meta facebook i don't think any of those stocks are particularly expensive so i think i think they'll they all offer good value we all we i think almost every one of them and um and have done and have for a long time what's kind of the upside potential um and let's start with amazon uh which you've owned for a really long time when people ask me the best investment decision i've ever made i say buying amazon on the ipo and what was the worst ever selling a share of amazon amazon is uh so i just wanted to re-emphasize that point selling amazon shares have been a bad mistake in the past that's why i hold my amazon shares very closely and that's one reason why it's one of the biggest positions in project one million it's underperformed the market uh fairly significantly in the in the past 12 months and that's because they're going through a very large capital spending cycle and the market then isn't sure if they're going to earn above the cost of capital even though they always have done that in the past but what's interesting about amazon particularly so so you know something like alphabets had a great year and amazon not so great but what's interesting about amazon to me is that if you mark the aws business the amazon web services business to a blend blended multiple of its major competitors in that area such as uh or software as a service such as microsoft microsoft or salesforce.com then what you'll find is that aws alone is worth almost amazon's current market cap we think aws standalone business is worth about 1.5 trillion dollars so bill miller said that aws itself is worth about 1.5 trillion dollars which is almost the majority of amazon's current market cap and the advertising business which is growing much faster in the advertising business at meta and at uh an alphabet if you give them the average price to sales that those companies trade at then that gets you about 95 percent of the way almost 100 percent of the way to amazon's current market values you get the entire global retail business for free so in addition to aws of course they have a very strong advertising business and according to bill miller that too also makes up a large chunk of amazon's valuation and he feels that you're getting the retail business or the e-commerce business for almost free and the other thing about amazon is that amazon this year will bypass ups as to deliver more packages in the us than worldwide than ups does and uh and ups has been around 100 years and amazon will build more warehouse space this year uh 122 million square feet to put that in perspective walmart has with my memories correct 136 million square feet and walmart's been around 50 years and amazon came public in 1996.

02. so we we think that amazon actually is a very good value here because the free cash flow should explode over the next few years as this capital spending cycle wears down you mentioned buying amazon so that's another interesting point mentioned by bill miller that amazon has this very big logistics business as well almost as big as ups and fedex and eventually will probably surpass them so that's another a very important revenue growth for amazon amazon as bill mentioned has not had the best years so far but it does look undervalued to me what do you think about amazon let me know in the comments