원문 보기
hey this note from the federal reserve that you're about to see could be bullish for us i'm really excited for it especially leading into tomorrow where if you haven't yet watched my video watch the video that's titled watch before may 11th all about cpi tomorrow but i really want to focus on what the fed just said neil kashkari president of the minneapolis fed let's get right into what he said and then i'm going to give you a conclusion at the end which let me just say i was not expecting this all right let's get into it quick note remember six days until we have the largest price create increase ever specifically you want to take a look at that real estate investing one right now you get 12 years of not only my experience but you also get 35 years of my my in-laws lauren's parents experience because the connie for example makes appearances multiple appearances in our group you get all of the property management rental property experience from myself lauren connie bill you name it our entire family really incredible content and a lot of folks have been checking out on both the zero to millionaire real estate investing group and that do-it-yourself property management group as a bundle so check that out before the prices go up and you get a better deal if you bundle them together link down below all right folks let's get into it phasing rates and in whether it's through a series of 50 basis points or maybe 75 does at some point come back on the table if you're trying to increase supply through investment you're cutting off your nose despite the fit your face you you want to you know you want capital deployed to ease all the supply constraints and it's going to be more expensive to do that every time you raise race it's it's almost a catch-22 and a very difficult and blunt tool that the fed has to just try to destroy demand it's a real problem i don't know you sure you want to keep doing this a really good question there by the way because the question is like dude like lower rates would help us invest in the factories and in the supply chains to make them better obviously my expectation here is the federal reserve's argument is like hey you got high enough valuations to finance and we just want to get back to neutral we don't need to stimulate more to finance your expansion so while i like the setup it kind of misses the fact that companies got plenty of money but let's listen to the response from neil kashkari he is the president of the minneapolis fed well we have our job to do you know we have to bring inflation back down and i'm confident we will do that but remember the cost of capital for most and for most large firms is still very very low right they can still go fund themselves at very attractive rates so i think we're a long way away from the cost of capital being the barrier for example to firms investing in the energy sector i do think it's more lack of confidence on where energy prices are going to be over the medium term to see what kind of return they get on their investment and also the regulatory environment that you spoke about hey neil um the fed has a dual mandate and that's to focus on inflation but also focus on unemployment the jobs market um in the past we've talked about how the fed probably has even more mandates than that worrying about a series of other things from the economy overall to to what might happen with the stock market is it fair to assume because at this point you sound like you are pretty laser focused on the inflation piece of it understandably so inflation is destroying things right now is it fair to assume that you're not paying that much attention as a as a body to what happens to the stock market at this point it's it's going to be focused on inflation and what happens to the market happens he's nodding absolutely i mean we i mean i'll be honest with you i never focus on the stock market as a goal uh we pay attention to asset prices as it comes back around into psychology and spending behavior but ultimately it is our dual mandate that drives us you know for five years up until the pandemic i was probably the most dovish member of the federal open market committee and i was i took that view because we were undershooting on inflation and i still saw there was slack in the labor market so if you're under shooting on both sides of your mandate that means the monetary policy is too tight now we have a very strong labor market and we want to keep it strong but inflation is much much too high and we have to bring inflation back down and ideally if we have monetary policy dialed in right those two things will be in tension we'll be at two percent inflation and we'll be at a very healthy labor market and we'll have confidence that we've got it right but right now it's just imbalanced and we need to bring it back into balance you just said you don't focus so much on the stock market unto itself but you do focus on the psychological impact of of the price of assets well effectively what i imagine you're saying is the wealth effect or the lack of wealth effect given where you've seen assets move over the last month how do you think that that psychology has changed has do you think that and also given some of the other numbers you were just talking about in terms of how much household wealth families have how much more does that have to come down to change the psychology well it's a good question you know when i think about this this um regime that we might be in a higher pressure equilibrium the wealth effect is part of that so stock prices were very high relative to pre-pandemic home prices very high relative to pre-pandemic and then even the lower income households that don't own stocks or don't own a home many of them have much stronger healthy balance sheets than they had before the pandemic my theory is that all of that is leading people to feel more confident and to spend more and maybe that's what's pushing us into this higher consumption higher spending higher inflation regime so yes the stock market has come down home prices are still very high the the latest data is that still been quite robust even though mortgage rates have climbed quite a bit just over the course of this year and again household balance sheets continue to be very strong and so you know we just need to keep paying attention to the data some of the most recent inflation data on some measures is a little softer than we had thought might come in so maybe there's some evidence that things are starting to soften just a hair but we just need to keep paying attention to the data and seeing where it comes out before we can draw any conclusions did you catch what he just said and in my opinion it's bullish inflation is actually already coming in lower than what the federal reserve was expecting it to remember the federal reserve missed the boat in terms of the fact that inflation ran way too hot way too fast but their expectations were that it would slowly cool eventually and now they're actually already saying that internally amongst each other they're seeing more of a decline we already know that the stock market needs to go down for the federal reserve to feel that individual's wealth is going down so they spend less money to drive inflation down now that's not the goal right we know the goal isn't to bring stocks down it's just that when you bring the stock market down and you bring the real estate market down people spend less money and then inflation goes away right and now obviously he gave us a big hint here that hey you know stocks have kind of already gone down but real estate even though rates have gone up still hasn't gone down in other words hey we might still have to kind of tighten the screws on real estate a little bit so they're watching and waiting for real estate prices to come down imagine being this group of people like let's go crash stocks okay let's now go crash real estate like it's kind of wild and powerful right but think about this way loretta mester this morning said the following quote volatility is painful but necessary to get inflation down i wrote this on twitter that's why you should follow me on twitter at really kevin i wrote translated yo we need stocks to drop so people feel poorer and then inflation will come down as people spend less don't worry though we sold our stocks beforehand to avoid a conflict of interest sure by the way they stopped owning individual stocks uh and sort of being able to make these portfolio decisions kind of at the peak of the market in like november and then they went into this crazy tightening cycle so it's like oh gosh just copy the fed when the fed sells you sell but they can't do that anymore supposedly anywho uh this this lower inflation expectation really big deal imagine if tomorrow and maybe they already know this right maybe they have their own estimates or they get a leaked early copy or whatever imagine if they already know the cpi is going to come in low tomorrow in my opinion bullish very very bullish if we get cpi that confirms the thesis that inflation may be peaked in march and actually comes in even lower than expected it can be very very very good especially for risk assets which are all kind of still selling off anyway good luck out there
댓글 0