저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 베리(Michael Burry)의 투자 전략을 소개하는 이탈리아어 영상으로, 결론은 '거시 시장 전망보다 저평가된 개별 종목의 잉여현금흐름과 기업가치를 보고 투자한다'는 것이다. [투자 철학] 베리는 시장 전체가 고평가인지 저평가인지에는 관심이 적고 자신이 매수하는 개별 종목에 집중한다. 종목이 충분히 저평가되어 있다면 다른 것은 신경 쓰지 않아도 된다는 입장이다. [종목 선정 방식] 주가보다 잉여현금흐름(FCF)에 초점을 맞추고, 기업가치(EV = 시가총액 - 현금 + 부채)와 EV/EBITDA 비율로 1차 스크리닝한다. 대형·소형·중형·초소형, 기술·비기술 구분 없이 후보에 포함한다. [포트폴리오 운용] 12~18개 종목으로 분산하며 심리적 안정과 변동성 완화를 목표로 한다. 회전율은 연 50% 수준으로 낮게 유지해 세금 영향을 작게 본다. [매수·매도 기준] 52주 저점 대비 10~15% 이내의 가격에서 매수하고, 새로운 저점을 깨면 손절한다. 기술적 분석은 보조 수단으로 쓴다. [리스크·특이 사항] 자산 보호를 최우선으로 하며 장기 견해 위주다. 특수 상황(차익거래, 순자산의 2/3 이하 거래 기업)과 워런 버핏이 선호하는 경쟁우위 기업도 드물게 고려한다. 특정 종목의 구체적 가격 목표나 방향 예측은 언급되지 않는다. [출연자 전망] 진행자는 베리의 전략을 소개하고 원문 기사(MSN Money)를 참고하도록 안내하는 데 그친다. 대상 자산에 대한 1~3개월 방향 예측 발언은 없다.
다듬은 글
Hello and welcome to this new video from Luca's paper on the stock market. Today I wanted to talk to you about Michael Burry's investment strategy. I recently came across an article written by Michael Burry, "Prohibited Masses of Demons," from the 2000s, in which he explains his investment strategy in detail and gives some examples.
Before we start, I'd like to ask you to leave a like on this video and write a comment on the channel to support its growth. Regarding his strategy, I'll first briefly explain it and then go through the details. I'll refer to the MSN Money article, where he explains it in a very detailed way.
First of all, Michael Burry shows little interest in the overall market. He doesn't care whether it's overvalued or undervalued. He focuses only on the individual stocks he buys. His only criterion is value, which is the foundation of his approach. In short, when a stock is sufficiently undervalued, you don't need to worry about anything else. Focus on cash flow rather than on the price.
In fact, if you look at the stocks he owns or is afraid to buy, they still have a fairly strong relationship between enterprise value and free cash flow, which is typically very low. Instead, you find that he prefers diversification, holding between 12 and 18 stocks, which for him guarantees a good psychological security, if you will. He also uses some technical analysis techniques, which I will post shortly, to support some key points of his analysis.
Now we'll look at the article by MSN Money, where he explains his strategy in detail. Let's start. He says: "My strategy is not very complex. I try to buy unpopular stocks when they seem like road accidents, and sell them when they have been cleaned up a bit. Managing my portfolio as a whole is as important as choosing the stocks well, and if I manage to do both things well, I know that I will be successful. My weapon of choice as a stock picker and researcher is fundamental analysis. It is of primary importance for me to understand the value of a company before spending a cent. I really have no choice in this. Since I first read the books *The Intelligent Investor* by Benjamin Graham, I have felt as if I was born to be a value investor."
"All my stock picks are based on the concept of margin of safety, introduced to the world by *Security Analysis*, which Graham wrote with David Dodd, though from now on it's my own version of their techniques. The bottom line is that I want to protect myself from losses to prevent permanent capital losses. I'm not very interested in the general level of the markets. There are no restrictions on potential investments. These can be large-cap, small-cap, mid-cap, or micro-cap stocks, both technology and non-technology. I don't care whether I can find value in them. Any company that shows value becomes a candidate for my portfolio. It would seem silly to me to put limitations on my options. However, I've discovered that in general the market likes to throw the baby out with the bathwater, so I find that outside of the favorable industries is particularly fertile ground for the best stocks in a big fight."
"The MSN Money Central website is a good tool for discovering these deals. As for determining whether a stock is at a discount, I usually focus on free cash flow and enterprise value. Free cash flow is simply the cash the company generates from its operations, which it frees up to spend as it sees fit after it has satisfied its basic needs, such as repaying debt, maintaining its assets like its plants, and possibly paying some dividends. Enterprise value, which I've discussed in more detail in another video I'll link, is simply given by market capitalization plus debt minus cash. I usually screen a large number of companies by looking at the enterprise value to EBITDA ratio, although this value differs depending on the company and its position within the economic cycle. If a company passes this screen, I study it in more detail to determine the most accurate price and value. When I do this, I take into account off-balance-sheet items and the true free cash flow. I tend to ignore the P&L and the return, since that is a risky and unstable picture. I prefer low debt and am careful to adjust the book value to a realistic number."
"I also invest on special occasions, in rare birds, such as arbitrage opportunities and companies that sell for less than two-thirds of their net current asset value, which is given by current assets minus total liabilities. I happily take positions in Warren Buffett's favorite kind of company, those with a great competitive advantage and a proven, stable return on invested capital, as long as they are available at a good price. These can also include technology companies if I can understand their business. But obviously, all these types of investments are rare birds, and when found they deserve a very long holding period."
"Good portfolio management is not just about choosing stocks but also requires answering some very important questions: what is the optimal number of stocks to buy, when to sell, how much attention to pay to diversification across different industries and between cyclical and non-cyclical ones, and whether I should care about taxes. For my investment decisions, a low turnover is a goal. Most of the answers to these questions are subjective choices, so there's no need to justify yourself if your choice differs from another's. I like to hold between 12 and 18 stocks, diversified across various depressed industries, and I tend to keep some liquidity. This number seems to give me enough room for my best ideas while reducing my volatility, although I don't feel that volatility is in any way linked to risk. But as you can see, this is a school problem, so I don't need extra stress. Even the tax issue is not of primary importance to me. I know that my portfolio generally turns over just over 50 percent per year, so the long-term tax benefits of a portfolio with a low turnover practically disappear."
"As for when to buy, I use some technical analysis tools. In my strategy, I prefer to buy companies whose price is not higher than 10 to 15 percent above the lows of the last 52 weeks, since that low has indeed proven to offer some support. As for selling, if a stock breaks below those new lows, in most cases I cut my losses. This is the practical part. I don't see fundamental analysis as infallible. Rather, I see it as a way of putting the odds on my side. Although I don't believe the market is efficient, I also don't believe it is perfectly inefficient. Insiders hold information, some analysts distribute information to a select few, and so on. Let's say that's how the price of shares can reflect the most recent information, and I, as a fundamental analyst, discover the mispricings in the end. Investing is neither a science nor an art, but it is a scientific art."
Well, that's all for Michael Burry's strategy. I'll leave the link to the article in the description. It includes some examples of stocks he bought and shows a bit of how he analyzed them. Unfortunately it's in English, so some people might find it a little tedious, but in my opinion it's worth spending some time to understand a few operations well. That's all for this video. I hope you found it interesting. If so, don't forget to leave a like and subscribe to the channel to stay updated for when my next video comes out. Bye!
Comments 0