Nvidia's earnings preview, options, and stock outlook

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엔비디아 실적(2/26) 앞두고 수요·중국 수출규제·관세·블랙웰 가이던스·딥시크 4가지 변수 점검. 옵션은 약 7% 변동 내재, 과거보다 실적 반응은 약화됐다는 진단. 딥시크 이슈는 이미 저점 테스트(매수세 유입)로 과도하게 반영됐다는 시각과, AI 생태계 확대에 긍정적이라는 시각 공존. 관세 불확실성으로 변동성 확대 예상. 엔비디아 올해 +3.3%, 최고가(1/6) 미회복.

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01. Nvidia reports fourth quarter earnings after the closing belt on Wednesday February 26th Catalyst co-host Madison Mills joins us now for a look at the four things that she's watching hey Maddie hey Brad that's right we're watching supply and demand Dynamics any Coler on policy impact from export controls to tariffs and forward guidance which could include comments on the blackw chip and deep seat competition so let's break these down starting it off with supply versus demand we've seen Microsoft Google and Amazon missing on Revenue expectations in part due to lack of Supply they didn't have the capacity to meet strong customer demand will the same be true for NVIDIA the street is looking for nearly $40 billion in Revenue that number would be hard for NVIDIA to hit if they can't meet customer demand for the quarter next up we are looking at Dynamics with China and Export controls the Biden administration had already restricted nvidia's AI chips from being sold to China the Trump Administration has signaled an interest in furthering those export controls in order to boost domestic chips production especially after deep seek said that they had used nvidia's trips to train their cheaper AI model another policy to watch here tariffs on chips president Trump had teased out a potential 25% tariffs on chips this week that could be a problem for NVIDIA because the company obviously dominates in AI but there are lower cost Alternatives so if tariffs increase the cost of Nvidia chips they have a choice customers would they pay up or would Nvidia eat those costs and if they do that could put pressure on their profit margins lastly we're looking at forward guidance and the success of Blackwell investors want to know when nvidia's nextg Blackwell chips will take over as the dominant driver of Revenue in their Data Center business because that could drive guidance higher due to the high cost of Blackwell chips and that guidance could also include commentary on that deeps competition that deep seek Market drop that happened just before the other big Tech earnings Nvidia has had a lot more time to prepare a thesis around that than the other big Tech names so will we get that thesis around deep seek that'll be a big question and we will see answers to hopefully all of these on February 26th joining us now we want to bring in David bull he's the Bay Crest managing director Equity derivatives David it's great to talk to you again so talk to me just about the size of this reaction what should we be expecting well like you said options are expecting about a 7% move that which is a little bit less than what we've uh options have expected in previous earnings reports over the last two years and exactly I'm wondering aloud if this singular report which used to be a massive Focus for the market just matters a little bit less than it used to now I'm looking back at the last three times Nvidia reported earnings QQQ the NASDAQ ETF was about flat that day if you go back to the end of 2023 early 2024 um Q's were up or down 2% three out of the four times that Nvidia reported those times lately it just hasn't been driving the overall Market action as much as it used to and then specifically for NVIDIA this 7% implied move is a lot that's like $240 billion do of market cap that are expected to be created or destroyed but Nvidia is such a overall volatile stock that that's only about double or two and a half times as much as it's supposed to move on a normal trading day so it it's a big event but I'm starting to think that it might not be a one- day surge like it used to if you go back one and a half two years but it might really set the stage for what the next month is going to look at so I'm looking at this as a one month event essentially not really just the one day jump move this time around and so with that in mind what what do you think is the core driver of that move here is is it demand is It ultimately saying you know what deep seek is not an issue and we're still a beneficiary even if deep deep seek or other uh language learning models out there are successful what is it from your your analysis to me the setup it it it it coincides with what I just said maybe it's less more of a muted reaction because we already tested the low on this deep seek news we we had the dress rehearsal about a month ago or 3 weeks ago where we saw what happens if the stock goes down 177% well we saw that dip buyers stepped in in size there were some put buyers they came in to hedge those positions but anybody that was feeling a little bit wishy-washy about potential gains they're sitting on in the Nvidia stock they had the chance to hit bids on that day that moved lower and then new buyers stepped in so the the setup I'm seeing from clients is that it's certainly less over owned than it was over the last two years the numbers are likely to be pretty strong but how good could it be with you know the rest of their major customers already reporting big capex numbers I think the sense is what can they say that's going to really Drive Nvidia up another 20% in one day but if anything this could be an overhang uh removed and the stock could then grind higher over the next over the next you know couple weeks or a month joining us now we want to bring in Francisco beo he's f investment senior portfolio manager Francisco it's great to have you ahead of these highly anticipated results that we'll be getting from Nvidia next week I'm curious what's the number one thing you'll be watching for well thanks for having me how be paying lots of attention to the demand for the new blackw Chips that's one thing and I'm also interested in and you know and see if they're willing to discuss how foreign governments of the US government is going to increase they're spending an AI if they having any hints where that that's going do you anticipate that com Terry being clouded by the Deep seek of it all I've wondered because deep seek happened so close to some of the other big Tech earnings if Nvidia might have had a little bit more time to cook on a thesis in response to deep seek well it's not so much about deep siik I believe in my opinion a deep siik is a basically a a good thing for the AI industry it's a way of making it widely available to many other uh potential users and if anything it just widens the ecosystem and accelerates the early adoption of AI so it's a good thing and I think it what people fail to understand is that this is actually a good thing for NVIDIA as well because the models are not done when you train them you really got to refine them afterwards there's post training that happens afterwards and you still need the big chips Francisco what do you think the volatility is going to potentially look like H it's going to be uh pretty wicked this year and the reason for that is H that is not only uh you know the normal Market volatility you got to add about the uner uncertainty brought in by maybe tariff policies and those things you know and some some of that can be pretty disruptive so we'll see where that goes and at the very least I'm expecting some volatility to come out of it I mean it can be disruptive but we don't have a lot of clarity on those tariffs like right now the only tariffs that are actually in place is the 10% one on China and the 25% on steel and aluminum obviously the deadlines are upcoming for the others including sector specific ones like chips but how much can the Market really react to that Known Unknown at this point well uh it's not so much whether they get implemented or not it's just a threat having them you know that forces the uh people on the other side or the countries on the other side to think about diversification regardless of whether they get implemented or not so the impact is there and the uncertainty that it creates is there already you know uh it doesn't have to wait until they're implemented nvidia's fourth quarter earnings are on Deck but the results may not be as important to as they've been in the past Yahoo finances Julie Heyman is here now with a closer look at what they mean for the broader Market hey Julie hey Brad thank you well part of this is just because of the action that we have seen this year thus far where the contribution of The Magnificent 7 including Nvidia has really Fallen relative to the rest of the market that's in part because of underperformance of those names and in part because of the broadening of the types of stocks that are doing better this long awaited broadening that a lot of investors have been calling for for a while so Finance crunch the numbers this is as of Wednesday's close so we might have seen some tweaking since then in terms of the biggest contributors to the rally this year in terms of the market cap gains now last year it was Nvidia unquestionably and all of the others were members of The Magnificent 7 Apple Amazon meta alphabet in terms of their size and the magnitude of the gains they contributed the most to the S&P 500's gains in fact for the Magnificent 7 to all together collectively contribut did more than 50% of the gains for the S&P 500 last year this year it's a very different story yes meta is still number one at around 133% invid at number two we'll get to its percentage in a moment but then you got Walmart at number three you got JP Morgan Chase at number four Eli Lily is on the top 10 as well so it is a more diverse Beyond big Tech list of stocks that's doing well for NVIDIA specifically last year it accounted for 20% just Nvidia alone of the gains in the S&P 500 this year it's a little more than 5% so it's not that Nvidia is not important it's just on a relative basis it's less important just another way to slice and dice this to look at the broadening Trend that we have seen is to look at the S&P 500 year-to date which is market cap weighted that is companies like Nvidia and apple have a bigger waiting a bigger influence and then if you equal weight it and look at the year to date it's pretty much neck and neck there was a big gap between these two last year so just again gives you an idea a of the closing of that Gap that we've seen so that's part of it and then part of it is also just that Nvidia is not wowing us quite to the same extent than it was when it first be began wowing us uh as it was first catching fire with the demand for uh generative AI chips right so if you look at the company's Revenue trajectory really started taking off in 2023 and this reports then and we were seeing triple digit gains the uh Revenue gains by the way peaking right around 260% here and that was um if you look at the the quarter when that happened that would have been its fourth quarter um of 2024 fiscal fourth quarter of 2024 it's on a bit of a different calendar now the estimate when it's coming out with its numbers next week is for Revenue of$ 38.2 six billion that's still a 73% gain it's all relative right it's still a 73% gain which is a big gain it's just not not sort of the heady huge triple digit gains that we had seen from Nvidia in the past and you know we did see Nvidia fall a couple of quarters ago when it reported last quarter the stock was a little changed so we'll see what kind of Halo and ripple effect it has this time around again it's not that Nvidia isn't important it's just that it it has become less important as we get this broadening and then finally just want to take a look at the stock action in Nvidia if we can get it to come up uh the stock action Nvidia that we have seen year to date here so here's Nvidia the stock is up about 3.3% year to date here here's today's action you know so it is higher year to date but its record high was back on January 6 and it has not reattain it since that date so again just something to put things in perspective as we await those earnings after the close next Wednesday Brad I've got my kitchen timer set it's on the max numbers that I can put it on for that countdown thanks so much Julie