저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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짐 로저스는 과도한 부채와 대규모 통화 발행으로 다음 위기가 역대 최악이 될 수 있고, 인플레이션이 재발할 것이라고 주장한다. 인플레이션 대응으로 원자재(은, 설탕, 쌀 등)와 에너지 보유를 권하며, 원자재가 은·설탕 고점 대비 약 70% 하락해 저평가 상태라고 본다. 석유 확인매장량 감소와 전기차 확대에 따른 구리·리튬·납 수요 증가를 근거로 든다. 채권은 전 세계적으로 버블 상태이고, 부동산도 한국·뉴질랜드·인도 일부에서 저금리로 버블이 형성됐다고 진단한다. 일부 주식도 버블이라고 언급한다. 신흥국으로는 우즈베키스탄을 최근 매수 중인 시장으로 소개하며 저평가, 풍부한 자원, 관광 잠재력을 이유로 든다. 미중 갈등에 대해서는 정치인들이 외국을 탓하며 악화될 우려가 있다고 경고하고, 중국은 21세기에 가장 성공적인 국가가 될 것이라고 본다. 암호화폐는 다수가 0으로 사라졌고, 정부가 통제하는 디지털 화폐가 주류가 될 것이라며 회의적으로 본다. 직접 보유하지는 않았다고 말한다. 투자 원칙으로 잘 아는 분야에만 투자하고 핫팁을 따르지 말라고 강조한다. 집중투자를 권하며 헨리 포드와 빌 게이츠를 예로 든다. 미국 빅테크(애플, 아마존 등 FANG 계열)가 다음 과잉의 대상이 될 수 있고 공매도 기회를 엿보고 있다고 밝힌다. 신규 투자자 유입은 강세장 말기 신호이며 결국 많은 사람이 손실을 볼 것이라고 경고한다. 블록체인·핀테크 등 기술 변화에 기회가 있다고 보며, 아시아(특히 중국)가 서구보다 계속 성장할 것이라고 전망한다. 미국은 역사상 최대 채무국이고 일본은 2010년 이후 인구가 감소해 서구 선진국보다 아시아가 유망하다고 본다.
다듬은 글
as you remember in 2008 2009 with the world had a bad problem because of too much debt since 2009 the debt oh the dead everywhere has skyrocketed him so the next problem has to be the worst in my lifetime because the debt is far far far the worst in any of our lifetimes so when we have a problem it has to be very bad next time I think that's just simple analysis of what's going on in the world and how markets work you've had the U.S printing huge amounts of money the Japanese the head of the bank of Japan said he would print his word unlimited amounts of money and they've all been printing huge amounts of money and that has always led to inflation it's leading to inflation again American Central Bank says no don't worry we're not going to have inflation and then they said it was transit to us temporary these guys don't have a clue what they're doing I think history is very clear that printing a lot of money always leads to inflation we have of that inflation it's going to get worse they may make some efforts to calm it down and they will but as long as they print money and as the economies get bad again they're going to print more money you need to find ways to protect yourself whether it's silver or sugar or rice whatever it is you need to be aware of how inflation can hurt and it is going to go on it takes a long time to break it you know in the 70s interest rates in America on treasury bills treasury bills went to over 20 percent because things were so bad that the central bank had to do really strong crazy things to break inflation they did but it took a lot of very serious efforts and it will again the investors always should only invest in what they know do not listen to other people do not listen to Hot Tips if you want to be successful stay with what you know everybody knows a lot about cars or fashion or something if you say with what you know then you know what to do when things go wrong and you know how to react if you start listening to Hot Tips you're gonna suffer badly I will tell you what I'm doing but you should not do what I do unless you know a lot about them bonds are certainly in a bubble all over the world they've never been this expensive property in many places Korea New Zealand parts of India property's been in a bubble because of low interest rates some stocks have been forming bubbles you know 10 cent Samsung stocks never go down the only asset class I know that's cheap is Commodities I mean silver silver is down 70 percent from its all-time high Sugar's down 70 percent these are not bubble prices these are the assets that are still very low and when you have inflation if you own the things that go up in price you make money and when there's inflation real assets Commodities usually go up well I own energy I plan to buy more the world known Reserves of oil continue to decline all over the world fracking came along and helped stop that decline but the fracking bubble has burst now we still have fracking but it's not a bubble anymore so known reserves continue to decline we may have electric cars in the future but if we do electric cars used many times more copper and lead and lithium than no petrol cars so either way there's going to be more demand for Commodities whether it's petrol cars or electric cars so they're still increased demand and nobody's been opening lead mines for a long time so there will be more opportunities in Commodities and in energy I understand some Emerging Markets have a lot of energy some have no energy and some must buy energy if you are an emerging market that has energy you're going to do well if you're an emerging market that buys energy you're going to suffer depends on what assets you have uh as I look around well Uzbekistan is a market where I've started buying an Emerging Market recently most of the emerging markets were up a lot now they've come down and I'm looking at as I said Uzbekistan as an Emerging Market where I've started buying shares and I'm looking I'm always looking for new markets well Uzbekistan is a former Soviet Republic you know they were ruined by the Communists and the guy who was running Uzbekistan was one of the worst but now there's a new crowd of people and they're trying to open the economy and run it the way you would run it or the way I would run them it's very cheap lots of Natural Resources lots of tourists resource oh my gosh great tourists potentially a great tourist country and many things there and maybe they're going to be managed properly now and maybe it's I know it's very cheap and if it's managed properly now maybe I'll make some money well I certainly don't like what the US is doing in China the U.S seems to hit hit when a country has problems they always blame foreigners and China is easy to blame it's big and different and Mr Trump and now Mr Biden both like to blame China for our problems and there's more of that is not good for the world it's not good for America it's not good for China but the way politicians work all over the world for hundreds of years and I'm afraid it's going to get worse because when the world economy gets worse more blame is going to go around China has been somewhat restrained but China's heading back now they have to so no it's not a good situation I mean it could lead to a shooting War that's not a prediction I'm just saying though when people start hitting each other sometimes it turns into more than just a trade Ward might turn into a shooting War China is going to be a very successful country in the 21st century doesn't mean it won't have problems America became the most successful country in the 20th century but along the way we had many depressions massacres in the streets Civil War had many problems but we still became a very successful Nation China will have many problems but in my view I don't see anybody else who can be as successful as China in the 21st century well if one thing that makes it more competitive it makes it easier to sell to the U.S it also means that you're the things you buy such as raw materials will be up in price as of serious effect on many countries but it can help countries be more competitive at least in the short term that will help people sell to the U.S and sell to other countries too since many nations yield in U.S dollars first of all I don't like to believe and believe I don't like to make investments based on beliefs I try to make my investments based on hard research and fact-finding and find out what is really going on not what I believe or not what I want many people are trading cryptos and making money part of the problem of course is that many have already disappeared many many cryptos have gone to zero already there's still many around in my view now the crypto Bulls the crypto optimists say that this is going to be the new money now every nearly every country in the world is working on putting money on the computer in China you cannot you cannot buy a taxi take a taxi with money you have to have your computer money you cannot buy an ice cream in China with money you have to put it here but when America says okay this is now money I don't think that the American government is going to say but you want to use that you can use that money too if you want to that's not the way politicians and bureaucrats think they want control they want power so I would suspect that crypto money will not be legal in most countries we will have crypto money but it will be government crypto money so I've never bought a solo I want to emphasize that people should invest only in what they know not what other people tell them not Hot Tips only stay with what you know if I told you you can only have 20 investments in your life it'd be very careful and you'd probably be a very successful investor over the long term over the years some people say well that's boring be boring if you want to be a successful investor don't worry about being boring stay with what you know everybody watching this knows a lot about something find your opportunities there and invest there and you will be a very successful investor as far as asset allocation I think you use the term I don't think about if you want to be successful you should put all of your eggs in one basket But be sure you have the right basket and be very you watch that basket very very carefully if you want to get rich that's how you get rich remember Henry Ford Henry Ford didn't diversify he put all his eggs into one basket and got very rich Bill Gates you put all of his eggs in one basket and got extremely rich but you better be sure you have the right basket but if you want to get rich you focus you concentrate and you do a lot of research and a lot of homework probably the next big short will be the when you expand the fangs that used to be called fangs things like uh apples and Amazon's a big technology companies in the US that's probably where the next excesses will be I'm looking to see where the accessories will be in this rally if there's a big rally and I hope I'm smart enough to sell them short the end of many bull markets a lot of new people come in they call their friends and they say oh I've discovered this new thing called the stock market and it's fun and you can make money and it's easy it's easy to make money and new and spax spacks have been around for 300 years but specs come along every time there's an end of a long bull market so spax are here again I've seen this movie before I Know How It Ends it's going to end with a lot of people losing a lot of money I hope I don't lose a lot of money but a lot of people who are new and inexperienced and think it's easy and when it collapses and when a lot of people lose a lot of money they're going to blame they're going to blame the market they're going to blame the computer they're going to blame this TV they're going to believe you they're going to blame me they're going to blame everybody they can as I say I've seen this movie before is not the first time it's happened many many times and I've read about it many more times they're always going to be new technologies developed they're going to be new ways to do things computer is changing everything we know it has been changed everything I've known for many years now and that's going to continue if you can find the right people who are making developing those dramatic changes you'll make a lot of money you know I mean blockchain is going to change everything we know it is changing everything we know if you can find the right blockchain company blockchain people you'll make a lot of money it's changing everything I mean just in my lifetime I've seen many fintech changes huge changes gigantic changes uh just in my lifetime and that's going to continue I hope you know my grandparents told me about the telephone you know everybody was afraid of the telephone when it and when it would ring they didn't know what to do they were afraid to answer it they didn't know about the telephone but there was new and unknown we've always had new technology I hope we continue to have I hope it makes many changes I hope we all get it right but Asia certainly has continued to grow dramatically much more than the West in the in this Century the Western countries have gotten higher and higher debt all of them and Japan if you call I mean that's sort of a Western Country all of these countries have built up gigantic Gap the Asian countries have continued to prosper and grow faster my view I don't see anything that's going to change that yes there will be problems along the way there always are but I don't see how I mean the U.S is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world you know there are problems there Japan has got staggering deaths Japan's had a declining population since 2010 and many problems in the so-called Western are developed worlds Asia still seems to be the place to be as far as I look out the window maybe some African countries but African countries have not built up the the capital and the expertise that Asia has so seems to me it's still Asia
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