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버핏은 비생산적 자산인 비트코인을 비판적으로 보며 '쥐약 제곱'이라 평가했고, 금에 대해서도 장기 복리 수익이 낮다며 부정적이다. 버핏 관점: 우표 투자 실패 경험을 들어 현금흐름을 창출하지 않는 자산을 경계하며, 비트코인은 현금흐름이 없고 가격이 수요에만 의존하며, 역사가 짧아 자신의 능력 범위(circle of confidence) 밖이라고 본다. 닷컴 버블과 유사한 투기적 열기를 경고한다. 달리오 관점(Bridgewater 분석): 비트코인은 금과 유사한 자산으로 볼 수 있으며, 통화 발행 확대 환경에서 인플레이션 방어 수요가 커질 수 있다고 본다. 다만 역사가 10년 남짓이라 분산효과가 입증되지 않았고, 변동성·유동성·해킹·규제(특히 인도 규제 우려) 리스크가 크다. 달리오는 비트코인을 옵션에 가까운 자산으로 규정하며, 매수자는 80% 하락 가능성을 감수해야 한다고 조언한다. 금 비중 약 7%를 보유한 점도 언급된다. 진행자는 버핏의 현금흐름 중심 원칙을 지지하면서도, 달리오와 Paul Tudor Jones가 소량 비중을 보유하는 등 대형 투자자들 사이에서도 비트코인에 대한 의견이 엇갈린다고 정리한다. 전체적으로 이 영상은 특정 가격 방향에 대한 명확한 예측보다는 두 투자자의 견해와 리스크 요인을 비교·소개하는 성격이다.
다듬은 글
may maintain positions in the Securities discussed on this podcast hi everybody thanks for joining in this week's episode we're going to explore Warren Buffett and Ray dalio's thoughts on bitcoin if you look into the headlines you'll see that Warren Buffett is not a fan of Bitcoin he's quite against it actually and he went as far as calling it rat poison squared Ray dalio looks to be more open-minded about it but before I get into that I want to start with a story so Warren Buffett is 29 years old and he decides on taking a long drive from Nebraska to Wisconsin to hear Ben Graham speak at a college Ben Graham is Warren Buffett's investment hero Warren Buffett's friend Tom joins him on this trip during their Drive Tom tells Warren about these four Cent Blue Eagle stamps that are going to be taken out of circulation soon they chit chat during the drive and they decide that when the stamps go out of circulation that would probably make them a really valuable collector's item one day Warren and Tom get so fired up about this idea that on their way home from the conference they stop at all the post offices on the way back and buy up all the stamps that they can they effectively Corner the stamp Market on those Blue Eagle stamps in total they buy over 400 000 stamps for around sixteen thousand bucks now at this time Warren's net worth is about a million dollars so he invests around a percent of his net worth into this speculation in today's dollars that's around 150 000 by the way so at this point Warren puts all the stamps in storage and waits until the demand for them Rises so that he can make a killing and laugh all the way to the bank well the years go on and Warren realizes that the stamps are not becoming a rare collector's item no one really cares about the stamps by the way Warren gives the stamps time to go up in price he patiently Waits 23 years to give them all the opportunity in the world to increase in value but that never happens so at the end of all of that he ends up selling the stamps at a 10 discount to face value so not only did he lose the 10 percent but if he had invested that original sixteen thousand dollars into stocks he would have made a killing holding them as an investment for over 20 years so there's a big opportunity cost that Warren took with the stamps as well I think that loss had an effect on Warren Buffett that made him adjust his investment style going forward I read Warren's biography and I really got the sense that he's the type of guy to learn from his mistakes and to never make the same mistake twice to me it looks like after the stamp or deal Warren was focused on only investing in productive assets productive assets are assets that generate cash while you own them so productive asset is pretty much any cash generating business for example if you buy a stock that pays dividends that's cash generating if you buy the stock you'll get paid the dividends even if the stock price decreases so there's less risk investing in productive assets because you're getting some sort of return for owning the stock in the stamp example the stamps just sat there and did nothing so Warren couldn't get any money for them until he sold them at a loss the reason that I started with the story is that the stamps are a non-productive asset Bitcoin is another non-productive asset and Warren Buffett doesn't like Bitcoin or really see a point to it at all the theory behind Bitcoin and how it works is really complicated so I won't get into all of that but Bitcoin is essentially a digital asset that has a limited Supply so there's essentially a fixed number of Bitcoin that can exist also Bitcoin can be easily transferred from one person to another so it has a lot of similarities to gold Warren Buffett's philosophy is to invest in productive assets that generate cash flows Bitcoin doesn't produce cash flows it's just a store of value with a relatively short track record so its price only depends on the demand for Bitcoin that's why Warren considers it a non-productive asset I should also mention that Warren doesn't like gold as an investment either because historically gold compounded very poorly compared to owning stocks buying gold 2000 years ago and compounding it would yield less than half of a percent of compound interest per year which is peanuts it's interesting to note that Berkshire Hathaway did buy some shares in a gold mining company in 2020 but it looks like they've sold off that position since and it was a really small position less than half of a percent of the total assets of Berkshire and Berkshire Hathaway of course is Warren Buffett's company owning a gold mining company is different than just owning gold as an asset class maybe Warren Buffett thought that the company was undervalued based on their cash flows who knows it's really hard to tell when Warren invests in a company he's saying that it's true value or its intrinsic value is higher than the current market price so he's buying the company at a discount even if the company stays undervalued for a long time he's able to collect dividends or take cash out of the company to reinvest this gives him an opportunity to recover some of his initial investment and that makes investing safer for Warren gold or Bitcoin are non-productive assets so there's no cash flows that they generate that's Warren Buffett's concern with them his second concern is that Bitcoin is outside of his circle of confidence for Warren Buffett the hype behind cryptocurrencies probably feels similar to the.com era during the.com boom he didn't buy any tech stocks and after a few years of crazy price increases there was a big crash most of the price gains in the.com Era stocks were driven by speculation and demand for the stocks a lot of the stocks that people invested in didn't have earnings or positive cash flows people invested because they had this fear of missing out and they saw their neighbor making 30 return in a month so they just joined right in as a comparison the overall NASDAQ index went up 400 percent from 1995 to March 2000 and then it fell 78 from its peak a year and a half later it took until November 2014 for the index to recover by comparison the maximum price decrease for Bitcoin was around 83 percent but the recovery time was much shorter for Bitcoin from that low point there's over 5 000 different cryptocurrencies out there and I'm sure some of them are going to be around in 20 years but it's hard to pick the winners from the ones that won't make it so that's one side of the argument from one of the greatest investors of all time if you've been listening to this podcast you know that I'm a huge Warren Buffett fan and that I've learned a lot about investing from him another great investor is Ray dalio he's the founder of Bridgewater and Associates investment firm Bridgewater is a huge company and they mostly deal with institutional investors these are Big foundations or endowments with billions of dollars to invest a few months ago Bridgewater released their thoughts on bitcoin I'll summarize their findings and then give you my take on their analysis it's easier to understand Bitcoin Dynamics if you use an analogy and Bitcoin can be compared to gold I'll start off by saying that Ray dalio held about seven percent of gold in the Bridgewater portfolio in their last disclosed 13 F statement having that type of weight in the Bridgewater portfolio suggests that there's a use for a gold-like asset even though it's a non-productive asset so already you can see that Ray dalio has a different sort of perspective on gold than Warren Buffett there's 13 trillion dollars of gold in the world and Bitcoin is around the one trillion dollar mark so it looks like Bitcoin has a lot more room to grow if its adoption continues the good thing about gold is that its price doesn't usually behave like the price of stocks so if you have some gold in your portfolio and stock prices decrease the gold should hold its value that's one of the reasons that people have gold in their portfolios now gold has thousands of years of history as an asset and it has proven to have diversification benefits while Bitcoin only has just over 10 years of history and it hasn't proven those diversification benefits just yet it looks like Bitcoin behaves similarly to equities or stocks but no one really knows what that's going to look like in the future Ray says that there aren't that many alternative gold-like assets and now that there's a rising need for them because of all the debt and money creation that is underway especially due to covid gold is useful in an environment where countries are printing tons of currency because the supply of gold is limited which means that it can protect against inflation a really simple example is if you have 10 gold bars in the whole world and you only have ten dollars in the world so each gold bar will roughly cost a dollar let's say if all of a sudden governments print more money and you increase the number of dollars in the circulation to twenty dollars but you still only have 10 gold bars then the price of each gold bar will naturally drift towards two dollars so you can protect yourself from inflation by holding gold there's not that many of these gold-like wealth assets that can be held in privacy which means that there is the possibility that Bitcoin and its competitors can fill that growing need so Rey goes on to say that he thinks Bitcoin may have already succeeded in crossing the line from being a highly speculative idea that would fizzle out to probably being around and probably having some value in the future now there's obvious risks with Bitcoin here's a list of a few that Bridgewater talks about in their research Bitcoin has only been around for 10 years or so so that's a big weakness because you have a very small sample size of data to look at so you don't know how Bitcoin is going to behave in different sorts of environments the Counterpoint is that it has survived the first Bitcoin crash in 2018 and the bull market rally over the past year has reached three tax the value of 2018 so Bitcoin survived and thrived volatility is also very high for Bitcoin so there's big price swings compared to stocks that means investors can catch bad timing with their Bitcoin purchase and see it drop by a lot the next day another risk is that although liquidity has improved it's still not great it's still pretty constrained in terms of size of Trades that you can do and by the way liquidity is just a fancy way of saying how easy it is to buy and sell Bitcoins without your trades affecting the market price of Bitcoin if an Institutional Investor has a hundred billion dollar portfolio and they want to invest one percent into Bitcoin it will be really difficult for them to buy that Bitcoin without affecting the market price significantly so that can limit Bitcoin investment by the really big investors I think that's changing constantly because I read that there's a bunch of infrastructure investment happening on Wall Street to be able to process cryptocurrency trades and so on but that infrastructure Improvement can take a number of years the interesting thing is that liquidity of Bitcoin is low even when you compare Bitcoin to the iron ore Market and that's a really small Global Market so it looks like there's a lot of room for the Bitcoin price to grow if it continues to be adopted in the market another risk is the possibility of being hacked there's ways to reduce this risk but it's still a possibility to consider also competitors can come along and if they're better than Bitcoin they can take market share Bitcoin does have a first mover advantage since it has a relatively longer history much larger size and a wider awareness and acceptance that give it somewhat of a moat it might not be a very powerful mode but it's there now there's also limited regulation now and there's new regulation coming out all the time historically governments want control over their money and they protect their ability to have the only money and credit within their borders so the more successful Bitcoin becomes the more pressure they can be from government and government can do two things one prevent people from using it or two invade Bitcoin privacy the government might have a really hard time doing this but all it would take is for them to have enough of an effect that the demand for Bitcoin would drop and if that happens the price would drop as well since Supply is more or less fixed India is rumored to introduce a bill that would ban cryptocurrency ownership that would be a big Catalyst for a sell-off in the market so that's something on the horizon that can have a big effect by the way greater regulation is not necessarily A Bad Thing short term it can lead to some sell-offs from people who have been using Bitcoin for illegal purposes but long term it can help Bitcoin get more accepted once more institutional investors join in since the supply is essentially fixed the big question is then how do you estimate demand Ray dalio did some analysis and noted that Bitcoin resembles more of an option at this point which means that Bitcoin is not guaranteed to succeed and its future has a really wide variety of possible outcomes Rey pretty much said that if someone were to buy Bitcoin he said their expectation should be that there's a good likelihood that it loses 80 percent of its value that's the mindset that a Bitcoin buyer should have if they want to buy Bitcoin now compared to some of the traditional storeholds of wealth such as gold art and real estate Bitcoin is much more easily exchangeable especially for individual holders and that's a huge benefit that Bitcoin has one more thing that I'll mention is that Paul Tudor Jones who's a huge name in investing has mentioned that he has a low single digit allocation to bitcoin so there's big name investors on either side of the Bitcoin argument from Warren Buffett who's against the ray dalio who is kind of on the fence to Paul Tudor Jones who actually holds some these are all super smart investors so it's amazing to see that they have such a difference in opinion well that wraps it up for this week's episode
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