저자: BillAckman · 외국인
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결론: 빌 애크먼이 2020년 3월 코로나 폭락기 회사채 지수 상승과 신용보험에 베팅해 2,700만 달러를 약 26억 달러로 키웠다는 사례 소개. 영상은 애크먼의 CNBC 인터뷰 발언을 소개한다. 그는 전 세계 봉쇄가 30일 정도 필요하다고 보면서도, 장기간 매출이 없으면 호텔·여행 등 산업의 많은 기업이 파산할 수 있다고 경고했다. 애크먼은 당시 매우 약세적 시각을 가졌으나, 힐튼·스타벅스 등 일부 주식을 공격적으로 매수하며 입장을 바꿨다고 밝혔다. 하락 중 저가 매수를 이어가고 있으며 미국 경제에 베팅한다는 입장이다. 거래 구조: 회사채 지수 상승과 회사채 신용보험(CDS 성격)에 베팅했다. 금융위기 때 리먼 같은 사태가 재현되지 않고 정부가 개입할 것이라 보고, 위험 대비 보상이 크다고 판단했다. 성과: 3월 한 달 헤지펀드 수익률 약 7.9%, S&P500은 약 17% 하락. 이 한 포지션으로 투자금이 약 100배로 불어났다고 설명된다. 영상 제작자는 현재 가격이 3월 13일 저점 또는 그 아래를 재테스트할 가능성이 높다고 보며, 역사적으로 큰 반등 후 70%의 경우 이전 저점 재테스트가 나왔다고 주장한다. 출연자 전망: 애크먼은 미국에 베팅하며 주식 비중을 늘리고 있다고 밝혔고, 영상 제작자는 하락 재테스트 가능성을 언급한다. 영상 자체는 교육·의견 성격으로 특정 자산에 대한 명시적 매수 권고는 없다.
다듬은 글
hello fellas and how are you doing on your isolation vacation now I'm telling you how my friend here bill Eggman is doing right now he's doing pretty well 2.6 billion dollars well and I'm telling you in this block how exactly he made this money and also let's have a look what he just said in an interview on CNBC every hotel is gonna be shut down in the country everyone hang hang on just one second you say Hilton is going to zero I mean again I'm a major shareholder what I'm saying is if we allow this to continue the way we allow it to continue okay every hotel company in the world okay it's done okay because no business can survive a period of 18 months without revenue okay and that's it it's sick with me and that's what happens okay when if you operate the way we're operating now okay now let me give you so that's a very very bearish thought okay and I've been super bearish but I got bullish okay and the reason why I got bullish and I've been aggressively buying stocks including Hilton today okay and I've been buying all the way down Hilton restaurant brands Starbucks you know walk your way through our purple the only stocks and not buy our companies were on the board and I'm restricted but the reason why is the only answer for the world is to shut the world for 30 days so the guy who just told us that we should shut down everything for one month the whole world basically is making two point six billion dollars in just one month with a capital investment of 27 million dollars now this is a 100 fold and how he did it and who he is all about it here in this block so bill ackman the guy with the gray hair and very youngest face is a head fund manager in 2003 he founded Pershing Square Capital which is a hedge fund and he actually you know have about eight billion dollars under management and currently he is all over the news about his critical CNBC interview however he actually went really Fame when he was betting on zero this is a documentary this is how the tide looks on Netflix you should really look into it because it's quite interesting how he made this short and Carl Icahn another billion or make a long call on a company and they in PRS and marketing and interviews on TV made a battle over this company very very interesting make sure to watch this so you know who's Blackmon in other words he's a billionaire that is really known for his active trading and shorting companies and he you know went on CNBC on an very serious interview and what he told on this interview and why it got so many views online let's have a look so recently when he went on CNBC he went live on air via telephone conference and it was so bad that CNPC thought to bring him out of this interview and canceled the interview because they thought he drags down the whole market it was anyway a very bad market day but he went on air and talked about a very series of things so first of all I think partially he is definitely right the only solution is wide very wide and or even global shut down for thirty days to really decrease the spread but the other side he is also saying in something like this could survive companies because if this will drag for a couple of months you know everybody is shutting down after each other this is obviously not a very coordinated move and can inflect the supply chain and also the demand and he said that hotel industry travel industry everyone will go out of business if they don't have revenue for a couple of months obviously nobody have this you know emergency fund we can just see it in the airline industry or other industries that you know they are going bankrupt even though they had lots of money and lots of profit that they used for stock buybacks and you know in the end of the day you cannot be very aggressive to them or very mad on them because on the end of the day this is something that you a company usually do if they have you know generating cash to buy back stocks is something also what Warren Buffett is recommending also to Apple you know when Steve Jobs called him up and say hey what about with all the cash that Apple has what we should do and Warren Buffett say hey buy back your stocks so this is a very common thing in the investment industry and therefore you cannot be mad about this because you know who knew that a global health situation like this will impact so many industries and us as a humanity so therefore you know this was the interview and what got hundreds of thousands of views when CNBC posted it online I will put the link in the description if you are interested in this 15 minute long interview of Bill Ackman on CNBC but let's now get to the meat to know how he made from 27 million 2.6 billion dollars okay let's just figure a bit about the numbers so he took 27 million dollars and turned them into two point six billion dollars let's just have a look here so 27 million dollars and two point six billion dollars two point six billion dollars is about two thousand six hundred million dollars so you can see that he actually hundred times the money within one months and how he did it is quite interesting and before we going into the mechanics of the trade it was one trade was one position and he actually turned this gain to his overall hedge fund that made seven point nine percent gain for the overall March months while the S&P lost seventeen percent so he gained almost eight percent and the S&P 500 lost seventeen percent at the same time so this is actually this is why people turn to a hedge funds and this is the word hedge because hedge funds maybe sometimes don't make so much money when the market goes up because they are hedging they are shorting some companies but you know the beauty about hedge funds is really that when it goes south and it happened every couple of years then hedge funds or good hedge funds really saves money to the very rich people so what he actually purchased was or how he bettered on increase of the corporate bond index s and also he bettered on credit insurance on those corporate bonds because what happened in such a great sell-off is that corporate bonds so the bonds that corporations can issue to gain money for merging acquisitions to investments operations and so on if they need money they can issue this bonds and this long term depth which investors can buy and those went so much down because many people thought that actually companies corporations will go out of business of this crisis and obviously this is a very high fear that was created over there and he said like wait a minute I think the US government will not make the same mistake like they did in 2008 where they fat belly did nothing where we lost Lehman Brothers and the government couldn't figure out to save this Bank which you know collapse actually ended you know into a deeper dive for the whole market and you know he was betting on that and he said the rate on that was so low like almost every low and therefore it's always about the risk and reward and he saw that the risk potential is actually not that big so he had very low risk even in this deal and gained so much money because within one month he gained so much money hundred times the money that he used for this deal I'm sure he is very happy but he's maybe also not that happy that he just put in 27 million dollars when he has over 8 billion in management so I think when he have put 1 billion dollars then he would have now hundred billion dollars however you know winner winner chicken dinner so that's why I think it was a brilliant move I think this is showing his ability for leading this fund and also after that he actually and he said this also in his interview that he's slowly buying into stocks and he's reducing his short positions very very much and he invests into companies like Hilton for example or he invests in Starbucks and he is betting on America and I think this is you know a very very nice word for the end if you're betting on America it's a very good probability after all this ends that you will get out of this much more wealthier obviously if you got hit by the sell-off now you could gain a little bit more and maybe we will test the new laws this is what I'm personally thinking and also I saw a couple of experts that are sharing this opinion of me however I think that we have at least we'll have one more opportunity with the same laws we had on the 13th of March or even lower this is actually according to history 70% of the case that can happen now after such a run or really after this bed kept bounds usually this goes in 70% of the cases further down and testing the previous laws or even lower but you know this is just looking into the history what happened before and therefore you know let me know what you want to know in the comments about this deal I think it's just brilliant and sees how many opportunities you have on the stock market and the investment world if you're staying on the right side
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