저자: 미상 · 외국인
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중국의 달러 탈피(디달러화) 가속을 다룬 영상. 중국의 미 국채 보유액이 2013년 1.3조달러 이상에서 2024년 8000억달러 미만으로 감소했다고 주장. 위안화 결제, CIPS, 디지털 위안, 금 비중 확대가 근거로 제시됨. 레이 달리오의 '제국 쇠퇴' 경고를 인용하며 미국 부채·인플레·정치 양극화를 위험 요인으로 꼽음. 달러가 즉시 붕괴하지는 않으나 장기적으로 기축통화 독점 지위가 약화될 것이라는 취지.
다듬은 글
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Join us as we break down complex financial concepts, explore market opportunities, and help you climb the ladder to financial success. Subscribe now and take control of your money. In a move that has sent shock waves through global financial markets, China appears to be accelerating its efforts to reduce reliance on the US dollar.
A development that legendary investor Ray Dalio has long warned about. This ddollarization strategy is not a sudden decision, but a calculated long-term maneuver by the world's second largest economy. For years, China has been gradually reducing its dollar reserves, conducting more trade in local currencies, and expanding its influence in international finance.
However, recent data in geopolitical actions suggest a tipping point has been reached. The implications of this shift are profound, not just for the United States, but for the entire global economy. At the center of this economic and geopolitical drama is the rise of a multipolar world, one in which the US dollar no longer enjoys unrivaled dominance.
Dalio, founder of Bridgewwater Associates and author of principles for dealing with the changing world order, has repeatedly emphasized that every empire and reserve currency in history has had a life cycle. According to Dalio, the US is entering the latter phase of its cycle, marked by increasing debt, internal conflict, and declining global trust.
China's latest actions serve as a loud signal that the era of dollar supremacy might be drawing to a close. China's reduction in dollar holdings is not mere speculation. It's backed by real numbers. Over the last decade, China has steadily decreased its share of US Treasury securities with holdings dropping from over 1.3 trillion in 2013 to below $800 billion by 2024.
The People's Bank of China, PBOC, has been diversifying into other currencies such as the Euro, Japanese yen, and even gold, which now constitutes a growing percentage of its foreign reserves. This is more than a monetary shift. It is a clear geopolitical statement. China no longer wants to be beholdened to US economic policies or risk the consequences of potential sanctions as witnessed in Russia's case after its invasion of Ukraine.
This move is part of China's broader ddollarization campaign that includes promoting the use of its own currency, the yuan, on the world stage through trade agreements with countries like Russia, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. China is encouraging settlements in UN instead of the dollar. The belt and road initiative, China's massive infrastructure project spanning across Asia, Africa, and Europe is also a major vehicle for this shift.
More contracts and financing are being done in UAN, giving foreign countries an incentive to hold and use the Chinese currency. The recent launch of the crossber interbank payment system CIP is another strategic alternative to the US dominated swift network enabling smoother international UN transactions.
Ray Dalio has consistently drawn parallels between current events and historical shifts in global power. He references the Dutch and British empires, both of which saw their currencies lose reserve status due to excessive debt, military overreach, and a loss of competitive economic edge. Dalio argues that the US is exhibiting similar signs.
The dollar has been the world's primary reserve currency since the end of World War II, but its continued dominance depends on global trust, sound fiscal management, and political stability. All three are currently under strain in the US. The national debt has surpassed $34 trillion. Inflation is rising and political polarization is at an all-time high.
The geopolitical backdrop further complicates the dollar status. Relations between the US and China have deteriorated significantly in recent years, marked by trade wars, military tensions over Taiwan, and accusations of technological espionage. In this context, China's devestment from the dollar is not just about economics.
It is a form of financial warfare. If China successfully weakens the dollar's dominance, it gains more leverage on the global stage and reduces its vulnerability to American pressure. This is particularly significant as the global order transitions from US unipolarity to a multipolar balance involving China, Russia, and other rising powers.
For the average American, these developments may seem abstract, but the consequences are very real. The dollar's reserve status allows the US to borrow cheaply, run large trade deficits, and print money without immediate inflationary consequences. If demand for the dollar declines, interest rates may rise, inflation could spike, and the US economy could face a painful adjustment.
Already, there are signs of trouble. Foreign central banks, including China's, have been net sellers of US Treasury bonds in recent years. This puts upward pressure on yields and threatens to undermine confidence in the dollar as a safe haven asset. Dalio has warned that if the US continues to rely on debt finance spending while alienating foreign creditors, it risks triggering a capital war.
In such a scenario, nations could accelerate their move away from dollar-based assets, prompting a cascading loss of value for the dollar. Dalio emphasizes that empires fall when the cost of maintaining dominance outweighs the benefits and when internal divisions prevent effective governance. The US may be approaching that inflection point, he argues, and China's recent actions serve as a wake-up call.
Adding further weight to this concern is the growing momentum around central bank digital currencies CBDCS. China has already launched its digital UAN in pilot programs across multiple cities and is exploring international applications. A digital UAN could bypass traditional banking systems and facilitate international payments without touching the US dollar.
This technology could dramatically accelerate the ddollarization trend. In contrast, the US is still in the exploratory phase with its digital dollar lagging behind in this crucial race. The implications for global investors and policy makers are enormous. If the dollar's dominance continues to erode, there will be a dramatic shift in asset allocation, trade flows, and investment strategies.
Countries may choose to hold less US debt and more commodities, gold, or alternative currencies. Businesses that rely heavily on dollar-based transactions may need to rethink their exposure and risk profiles. Dalio advises diversification not just within asset classes but across currencies and geographies.
He suggests that investors should be prepared for a future that looks very different from the past. China's dumping of the dollar is also deeply connected to the broader theme of the decline of globalization. As the world becomes more fragmented and regional alliances strengthen, reliance on a single global currency becomes a liability.
China is building its own parallel systems, financial, technological, and political to reduce its dependence on the west. This is evident in its support for bricks, a coalition of emerging economies seeking to challenge Western financial institutions. The BRICS block is actively discussing the creation of a new currency to rival the dollar and China is playing a leading role in these efforts.
Despite these trends, it would be premature to declare the death of the dollar. The US still enjoys significant advantages, including deep and liquid capital markets, strong institutions, and the world's largest consumer economy. However, what is clear is that the dollar's dominance is being challenged in a way not seen in decades.
For the first time, a credible alternative system is emerging, led by a powerful rival with global ambitions. Dalio's warning is not about the immediate collapse of the dollar, but about the long-term trajectory if current trends continue. There is also a psychological dimension to this shift. The dollar's strength has always depended on global belief in American stability and leadership.
As that belief waines, the dollar becomes more vulnerable not just to macroeconomic forces, but to shifts in sentiment. In an interconnected world, perception is reality. If global investors and governments begin to question the dollar's reliability, they may start looking for alternatives, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy of decline.
One cannot ignore the role of gold in this equation. China has been ramping up its gold reserves quietly but consistently. Gold is historically a hedge against currency risk and inflation and it has played a crucial role in past monetary transitions. As trust in fiat currencies diminishes, especially in the wake of massive money printing postco, gold could regain prominence.
Ray Dalio has often described gold as a timeless and universal asset that performs well in periods of rising debt and declining empire. China seems to agree. Ultimately, the question is not whether the dollar will disappear, but whether it will lose its exclusive status. A world with multiple reserve currencies, where the WAN, euro, and even cryptocurrencies play a larger role is becoming more plausible.
This would mark a profound transformation in the global financial system. Trade, investment, and geopolitical influence would be redistributed for the US. it would mean adapting to a more competitive and less forgiving international environment. Ray Dalio's final warning is particularly resonant in this context.
His historical lens reminds us that the global monetary system is not fixed. It evolves based on the rise and fall of empires. In his analysis, the United States is approaching the late stages of its economic cycle, a phase marked by excessive debt, internal polarization, and the erosion of international trust.
These factors, Dalio argues, have historically preceded the decline of every major reserve currency. From the Dutch Gilder to the British pound, no global currency has retained its supremacy forever. The US dollar, despite its long-standing dominance, may now be facing a similar fate if current trajectories hold.
What makes this moment especially critical is the speed and scale at which change is happening. Technological innovations like blockchain and digital currencies coupled with intensifying geopolitical rivalries are accelerating shifts in global finance. China through tools like the digital UN and its crossber interbank payment system CIS is rapidly building the infrastructure needed to facilitate an alternative financial ecosystem.
One that bypasses the dollar entirely. The growing support from nations across Asia, Africa, and even Latin America for UN-based trade and settlement shows that China's influence is expanding, not just economically, but ideologically. The very concept of a dollar- centered world is being questioned.
The erosion of the dollar's dominance, if it continues, would have sweeping consequences. It could redefine how countries trade, borrow, invest, and interact diplomatically. The US may no longer enjoy the privileges of issuing the world's reserve currency, such as low borrowing costs and nearly unlimited monetary expansion.
Instead, it could face rising inflation, higher interest rates, and a diminished role in international negotiations. These are not just economic issues. They go to the heart of America's global leadership. China, meanwhile, is positioning itself to take advantage of this power vacuum. Its economic model, while criticized by the West, is proving resilient.
Its state controlled capitalism, long-term strategic planning, and willingness to absorb short-term pain for long-term gain are yielding results. In many ways, China is playing a different game, one focused on long-term global positioning rather than short-term political wins. Dumping the dollar is a bold, calculated step in this direction.
Dalio's message is not one of doom, but of urgent awareness. He emphasizes that while history doesn't repeat itself exactly, it often rhymes. And the rhyme we're hearing today sounds remarkably like the final verses of other great financial empires. If the United States hopes to maintain its influence, Dalio suggests it must address its fiscal imbalances, rebuild trust at home and abroad, and take strategic action to remain competitive in a world that's rapidly evolving.
One thing is certain, we are living through a pivotal moment in monetary history. The choices made by policymakers, investors, and global institutions in the coming years will shape not just economic outcomes, but the geopolitical landscape for generations. Whether the US adapts or falters and whether China succeeds or overreaches, the world is watching and adjusting.
In Dalio's terms, the cycle is turning. The only question now is who will lead in the next era of global finance. That's it for today's video. If you found this helpful, don't forget to like, subscribe, and turn on notifications so you never miss an update. At Wealth Echelon, we're all about helping you navigate the world of crypto, investing, and financial growth.
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