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이번 주 암호화폐·금융 뉴스 정리 영상으로, 인도의 암호화폐 전면 금지 추진과 파키스탄 채굴 확대, CBDC의 현금 대체 및 통제 목적, 뱅크오브아메리카의 비트코인 비관론과 CSD5 언급, 모건스탠리의 비트코인 펀드 제공, 도이치뱅크의 비트코인 시총 1조달러 평가 등을 다룬다. 비트코인과 암호화폐 전반에 대해서는 긍정적 관점이 강하다. 기관의 채택 확대(모건스탠리, 노르웨이 기업의 비트코인 재무 보유, 메타유 추가 매수)를 근거로 들며, 이더리움도 비트코인과 같은 궤적으로 따라갈 것이라고 본다. 레이 달리오 서한을 인용해 채권 투자가 실질 수익률 기준으로 손실이라고 주장하고, 75조달러 규모의 미국 부채 자산에서 자금이 빠져나와 비트코인으로 유입될 수 있다고 본다. 최적 포트폴리오로 비트코인과 현금 비중을 제시한다. 그 밖에 앱 기반 후불결제 업체(애프터페이, 짚페이 등)는 커먼웰스은행의 진입으로 경쟁 심화가 예상된다는 견해이며, 항공주는 부채 부담과 정부 임금 보조에 주의하라고 언급한다. NFT는 원작자 허락 없는 작품 도용 문제를 경고한다. 출연자 전망 관련해서는 비트코인 상승 기조를 전제로 하며, 달리오 서한에 기반한 채권 회피와 비트코인 선호 입장을 강조한다. 전반적으로 비트코인과 이더리움의 중장기 상승을 낙관하고 채권 보유에는 부정적이다. 구체적 목표가나 기간은 제시되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
g'day everyone and welcome to this week's episode of the project 10x weekly roundup where we go through the most interesting crypto tech and finance articles hitting the media in the last week this week it's all about banking and how the banks feel about crypto and we're going to finish it off with ray dalio's letter that he had recently posted so kicking things off on the geopolitical scale we've got india to propose a cryptocurrency ban penalizing miners traders and finding anyone trading in the country or even holding such digital assets then you've got their neighbouring pakistan province planning to build pilot cryptocurrency mining farms so they're building two hydroelectric powered pilot mining farms to capitalize on a bullish crypto market they've also formed a federal committee to formulate a new crypto policy even as neighboring india is planning to ban cryptocurrencies entirely so on the one hand you've got india banning crypto on the other one you've got places like pakistani provinces that are getting into mining crypto you've got miami becoming the hub of the cryptocurrency world you've got other states in the us which are providing electricity tax credits and i think everyone will jump on the crypto bandwagon eventually but you're going to continue seeing this until they realize that there's money to be made moving on the federal reserve's pal says cbdc's central bank digital currencies need to coexist with cash and i wonder why he's saying something like that and the answer is in this tweet so the head of the bank for international settlements often called the central bank for central banks declares he wants complete control over money by a banning cash in favor of central bank digital currencies an openly stated very important goal so the reason is if you have a hundred dollars and you spend it as a 100 cash bill they don't know where you've spent that if you have a hundred dollars in cbdc they know exactly where that hundred dollars came from and where you spent that money so it's a form of control by understanding where all the money is coming from and going to and of course i'd love something like that moving on you've got bank of america one analyst slams bitcoin buying one btc is like owning 60 cars so the bank of america analyst francisco blanche has slammed bitcoin as exceptionally volatile in practical and environmentally disastrous asset that's useless as a store of wealth or an inflation hedge now they're starting to say things like that which means they're spreading fear and certainty and doubt and it also gives me a feeling that they're starting to get scared by the cryptocurrency market in general and bitcoin obviously as the biggest leader in the market next on the other side of the scale so you've got bank of america spreading this fear uncertainty and doubt and then you've got morgan stanley becoming the first big u.s bank to offer its wealthy clients access to bitcoin funds so the two funds are from galaxy digital and there's one from nine dig but you're seeing the difference between the banks here so morgan stanley is offering crypto custody and the reason is the high net worth individuals will just go to somewhere like coinbase and i'm sure their high net worth individuals have probably gone to coinbase bought a million dollars worth of bitcoin and said hey morgan stanley just letting you know i've bought a million dollars in in bitcoin why aren't you allowing me to do it through your you know portfolio so now morgan stanley's come back and said well you know what you can do it with us because we're gonna manage your portfolio and remember if you buy a million dollars and morgan stanley is managing your portfolio and they collect two percent per year that's twenty thousand dollars in additional income for them so why wouldn't they offer their wealthy clients access to bitcoin they've gone one step further and are rumored to be eyeing a stake in a top korean exchange bit thumb so they're rumored to be negotiating the acquisition of a significant share of the exchange and are planning to invest between 254 million and 441 million dollars because exchanges make money right we all know that coinbase is making an absolute killing and they're about to go public or they have just recently gone public and uh they're making over a million dollars a day so of course you're going to want an exchange and then you've got another bank saying bitcoin is too important to ignore deutsche bank report because it is a one trillion dollar market cap according to their report they're also saying things like they estimate that less than 30 of the transactional activity in bitcoin is related to payments and that is because people are holding bitcoin they're not transacting with bitcoin and the reason is because bitcoin appreciates that 200 per year so you're better off holding it than actually selling it for a piece of chewing gum or whatever it might be and then also you've got bank of america csd5 potentially more disruptive than bitcoin and i think they're on to something here in terms of disruption but not more disruptive than bitcoin the bank also calls central bank digital currencies kryptonite for crypto but it is intrigued by d5 which it says is potentially more disruptive than bitcoin so i think cbdc's cannot compete with bitcoin or crypto in general so cbdc's will be the equivalent right so if you have an aud coin which is a central bank digital currency coin and you have an aud they're going to be the same thing right it's just a digital dollar however they can print that dollar into oblivion which is what we're seeing now you're just seeing a lot of money printing going on all over the world so bitcoin having a fixed supply you can't even compete with that because that's a fixed supply versus an unlimited supply so this kryptonite for crypto i don't buy a thing of it moving on this is an awesome one this casino in decentraland is hiring for real so you've got real-life hosts that now work the floor at decentral games casino helping newcomers to this crypto house a chance try their hand at digital roulette blackjack and slots for four hours each day the greatest staff shifts in the metaverse then at the end of the month they get paid upwards of five hundred dollars in die or about 500 us dollars or the firm's dg token for those that don't know what the casino looks like it is uh here and what you see is there's people logged in digitally at the casino you know in this metaverse they're gambling and they're making bank and losing money and doing all the rest of it but at least now you've got real people that are greeting you moving on chinese tech firm metoo buys 49 million more in bitcoin and ethereum so railpal has spoken to us before about the fact that ethereum is on the same trajectory as bitcoin it's just five or six years behind bitcoin because it is five or six years younger than bitcoin so now you're starting to see the first publicly listed companies start to double in first bitcoin and that then move on to ethereum and now you're seeing that here right so you're going to get more of these companies start to double in ethereum as well which is super bullish not only for bitcoin but ethereum as well you've got another company from norway akka to put 100 bitcoin in treasury reserves of the new their new investment unit and it's owned by a billionaire and the firm's new investment entity ct is going all in on bitcoin so we're starting to see things like this happening every single day for our aussie listeners crypto.com is expanding their payment card to australia after becoming the visa principal member so their card allows users to convert their crypto into fear for spending at visa accepting retailers of which there are 70 million worldwide also on thursday the company said it will introduce fiat currency lending backed by crypto collateral so not only can you spend your cryptocurrencies using your visa card you can also borrow against your crypto currencies therefore you make banks useless moving on artists report discovering their work is being stolen and sold as nfts the article says while nft investment gold rush has made some artists millionaires it also appears to have drawn bad actors looking to cash in on the work of others many artists around the world are reporting their work has been stolen and sold on nft sites without their knowledge or permission remember when someone makes me like or mints an nft the token they create is permanently tied to a unique digital or physical asset that asset can be a pair of shoes or it could be a url a video a jpeg file a picture so when someone buys an nft for a digital artwork they're not buying the artwork but the token that represents the artwork that artwork could have come from anywhere so this is something to be wary about and something that we should uh continue to follow then the some exciting news from commonwealth bank of australia to become the first major bank to launch its buy now pay later service cba will be the first of the big four to offer a buy now pay later service of its own as the bank seeks to align itself with the consumer shifts away from traditional credit cards because your millennials your gen alpha and and everyone that's younger than millennials they're moving away from traditional credit cards and using these services like after pay and zip pay and alipay and so on and what's happened to ali after pay and zip pay since that has happened since the cba announcements by now pay later platform after pay lost 2.7 percent today to 108 dollars following a 1.7 fall on thursday its rival zip was also down 2.1 so i liken this to like your uber right so there was a taxi industry and then when uber came in it disrupted the taxi industry here you had a buy now pay later providers zip pay after pay alipay and then your banks come in and disrupt it because they can offer cheaper rates and people you know already bank with commonwealth banks so they might as well go there so now it's going to be a race to the bottom who can provide the most attractive rates moving on international qantas workers to get government funded wage subsidy after job keeper ends now the reason i put this in is for those that are thinking oh airline stocks are cheap just remember airline stocks are full of debt right now because they've been grounded for a year and historically from let's say 2014 to 2020 airlines were making profits and then using those profits to buy back stock and prop up the share price so now that they've been grounded for a year and not having any cash reserves or having very limited cash reserves now they need wage subsidies by the federal government so which means to tell me that they're full of debt so if you're looking at investing in any of these airlines just be wary of that and finally to finish the session why in the world would you own bonds when so it's a letter from ray dalio tldr we're going to go to a fantastic summary by case bitcoin uh given that it's a 20 minute article but he says in the article that the economics on investing in bonds and most financial assets has become stupid that's because typically there's a 60 40 portfolio 60 percent equities 40 bonds and that's what people generally talk about when they say you know 60 40 portfolio which is very common however ray dalio is saying it's stupid because the yields on those bonds are say two percent when you have a two percent yield but a cost of capital which to me is the money supply so the m2 money supply if you have a two percent yield and a cost of capital in australia in of 12.9 percent then you're still down 10.9 percent overall if you're buying bonds so you're actually losing 10.9 percent of your purchasing power by buying bonds in america or the us specifically that's even worse so you have let's say these bonds are two percent and then the cost of capital is 25 because they printed 25 more dollars in the last 12 months so two minus 25 they're still down 23 of their purchasing power if they go ahead and buy bonds so he's saying move into other assets he notes that there are over 75 trillion in u.s debt assets of varying maturities so if the biggest money manager in the world is saying that there's these bonds these these government bonds these u.s debt assets and it's worth 75 trillion dollars and move out of those assets is what he's essentially saying that's 75 trillion dollars that needs to go somewhere think about that bitcoin is a one trillion dollar market cap and he is pointing towards bitcoin in the article it's a one trillion dollar market cap with the potential to have up to 75 trillion off the bond market come in what happens to the price of bitcoin anyway he ends the article with a note on how policy makers may try and stem the flow out of bonds and into hard assets and he also mentions how the optimal portfolio for these times is no longer the traditional 6040 stock bond mix he believes a well-diversified portfolio of non-debt and non-dollar assets bitcoin along with a short cash position is preferable to a traditional stock bond mix that is heavily skewed to us dollars and he's absolutely right guys he disadvised he's one of the greatest money managers in the world and he's telling you to stay the hell away from assets that do not provide a yield that exceeds the cost of capital that is all we have time for today folks if you have any topics that you would like us to discuss for next week please leave your comments below otherwise we will see you next week don't forget to like and subscribe
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