Jim Cramer: This is not your typical annual 'Santa Claus rally'

요약 보기

결론: 2020년 12월 크레이머는 연말 랠리가 과거와 달리 상충하는 베팅이 뒤섞인 불안정한 상태이며, 백신 수혜 쪽에 무게를 둔다. 시장 상황: 다우 338포인트 상승, S&P 1.29%, 나스닥 1.25% 상승으로 크리스마스 랠리 분위기가 이어졌다. 다만 이는 과거형 산타랠리와 다르며 서로 모순되는 베팅들이 동시에 걸려 있다. 백신 시나리오(가장 유력): 백신이 레이스의 우승 후보이며 승률은 약 4대1 또는 조건부로 2대1로 본다. 화이자·모더나·J&J 백신 출하가 1분기 안에 이뤄지면 공급 과잉(글럿)까지 기대할 수 있다. 백신 승리 시 회복 관련 종목(경기 정상화 수혜주)이 더 오를 것이라고 본다. 다만 화이자·모더나의 공급량이 부족하다는 점은 한계로 지적했다. 봉쇄 시나리오: 뉴욕 식당 등 봉쇄 우려를 언급했고, 봉쇄 가능성은 약 5대1로 본다. 선택적 봉쇄는 피해가 덜하지만 어느 쪽이든 경기침체로 이어질 수 있다. 연방 지원 없이 봉쇄하면 치명적이라고 경고했다. 봉쇄 시 수혜는 FANG 등 대형 기술주와 약국 주식(드럭스톡)으로 제시했다. 노 락다운(봉쇄 없음): 3번째 시나리오로 언급했고, 오늘 자금이 노 락다운 쪽으로 몰리는 흐름이라고 봤다. 필수 아닌 소매주가 강세를 보였고, 일부 투자자는 일반 기술주를 팔아 자금을 마련했다. 2대1 수준으로 보지만 그는 이것도 지나치게 낙관적이라고 봤다. 리스크: 베팅 간 모순으로 인해 머지않아 누군가는 틀리게 된다. 배당 변동성과 백신 공급 차질이 주요 리스크다. 출연자 전망: 백신 승리 확률을 가장 높게 보며, 회복 관련 주식을 선호하는 입장을 보였다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. we used to call it the santa claus rally when the whole market roared going into christmas like today where the dow climbed 338 points the sb game 1.29 percent the nasdaq vaulted 1.25 but sadly this is not your typical santa claus move the market didn't have a scrooge experience where it saw the ghost of christmas future decided to become more gracious and accommodating i'm not saying santa isn't real or that we're all getting a lump of coal in our portfolios this year it's just this rally's about something else entirely right now we have bets being made from all different directions contradictory bets that are sticking they don't make any sense when you put them all together sooner or later someone has to be wrong for the moment though christmas joy abounds the santa claus rally continues and wall street gamblers move up their favorite stocks with their buy you know what it's like it's almost like a horse race where the punt is in the paddock headed toward the gate all flattered all fractious and ready to roll you need to view each contradictory thesis as a different horse so which ones are getting the biggest money down the odds are trade the odds are changing every single minute because there's so much money being bet on different stocks uh first we have in pole position vaccine yes the people are betting on vaccine are those who believe that modernity this week will join pfizer with a vaccine that's easier to transport and manufacture and don't be so cold and we've got even more vaccines on the way i think vaccine takes the race if j and j is the jockey now i know you're not supposed to bet the jockey i've been along round enough to know that but if we can get pfizer moderna and j and j shipping vaccines we could have and i know i'm the only person in america because i'm from philadelphia i can say that who believes that we could have a glut in this country by the end of the first quarter the only person remember i was also the only person who predicted the pandemic when everyone thought it was complete nut job and with a vaccine glut we can finally start to live without fear again even if not everyone takes the darn thing if vaccine wins the horse race all the recovery plays will roar higher everything that does better when the world goes back to normal and all of those stocks were bought today and you can see the pattern it never stops i say vaccines about a four to one shot it would be a two to one shot except pfizer moderna don't have enough doses to do the job you'll hear about more about that later in the show if jnj jumps on the horse it's two to one no problem throw in some of the other players astrazeneca baby and it's a walk over second position lockdown yeah here comes lockdown come on home stretch lockdown well people betting on lockdown after new york city with the restaurants right they see the buyers out of control and they believe states will have to shut down their economies at least partially a selective lockdown would do less damage but either way it's a recipe for recession nobody wants that but it might be unavoidable from a public health perspective every other country that's done this has thrown money at people to ameliorate the damage however a lockdown with no federal assistance would be devastating i'll put this one really as a five to one shot remember there are some winners in lockdown the kramer coveted winners but they are largely intact to the detriment of all others we should call lockdown by its nickname fang sired by fang drugstocks work too third pony no lockdown today for some reason certainly not the covet statistics right the case load we got heavy money coming in on no lockdown you can tell because all the non-essential retailers were flying because there's not enough money to go around to bet on everything at once some investors sold garden variety tech stocks to fund these wagers no lock down looks like a two to one shot today but i gotta tell you i think that's way too optimistic