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let's address I don't know if the elephant in the room or whatever but let's let's address Mega cap okay um did the game in any way Josh change for Mega cap stock performance yesterday with this apparent pivot that's what people are calling it by pal the rate trajectory is now lower yeah did the game change yesterday the gold post move at all for that trade I think one of the things we've learned in the post financial crisis period we now have like a decade and a half of History one of the things we've learned learned is that in periods of time where there is doubt about overall economic growth these are the stocks that catch a bid and and tend to lead the markets both on the way up and they go down less than the overall market and there's a good reason for that they have secular growth or maybe they used to more so than they will now given how big they are but there were Market environments where there was serious concerns about global growth or us growth or why can't the FED Stoke any inflation whatsoever why are we fighting disinflation we had an inverted yield curve in 2019 way before covid and these stocks were leading because when you have growth and growth is scarce you're worth more to the investing public and they will bid your stock up if the game is now going to change and we're not hung up on the you know the recession starts next week no the week after no the week after that and we think there's a path for overall economic growth it makes less sense to bid up the mag 7 because they won't be the only growth in town so that's the way that I think about these stocks they get more coveted when no one else can grow if other stocks other sectors have their own growth story they are less coveted and therefore should shrink in proportion to the overall Market that's that was kind of um Rob gunlocks Point too it's not like he doesn't think stocks you know can do well it's just quote I think you want equal weight rather than market cap weighted at at this juncture he's speaking directly of Mag 7 um the multiple expansion that we we've seen there Apple new record high today but you saw the others on the list there are several that are selling off just a little bit reiterated sector weight at tbank is Apple a lot of the other names talked about almost on a daily basis the stocks have just done incredibly well I'll ask you the same question though did the game change in any way yesterday I I I think it's if it hasn't it's going to uh we've been overweight Tech all year we're evaluating that right now it's tough to evaluate it in December as you're approaching year end you've got a lot of clients that have huge embedded gains in these names and even just resizing the positioning I'll give you an example we've own we bought broadcom in April okay broadcom has been such an unbelievable performer record high today by the way reiterated overweight 1,200 bucks the target at Key Bank and it's also become our second largest position in very short order because of that performance I think people have to to pay attention as they go into next year about exactly what Josh talked about which is where am I going to get the funds if they're not coming from cash and I don't want to increase equities you're going to reallocate within equities and so I do think there's this catchup I think there's going to be beneficiaries Beyond The Magnificent 7 and you should be prudent it doesn't mean you have to run from them I think that would be foolish as well these are companies that are some of the best businesses in the world but you have to right siize them speaking of nonm magag 7 tech Qualcomm overweight 14 45 at Key Bank that's a 52e high today for that stock yeah I mean this stuff Tails exactly with what Josh and Rob were just saying and let me point out a data point that may seem Arcane but it actually matters South Korean exports are up heavily okay what does that mean you think South Korea is exporting lettuce no they're exporting semiconductor chips and this is semiconductor outside of AI this I was I was to guess that was pretty good go ahead all right but you know these are semiconductor chips outside of AI these are mobile phone these are these are automotive this is Internet of Things is even laptops okay it's clear that the cycle has turned for mobile which is helping Qualcomm it's also never turned down for automotive which is why nxp and Qualcomm are doing well AMD Josh yours top pick for the first half of next year at Rosen blat 52 we height again price Target 200 bucks I mean this is one that I don't own enough of I I typically buy a stock and my assumption is I'll be wrong it'll get cheaper um I I consider that a form of smun insurance just the way I carry my myself generally in life I shouldn't have done that here I should have owned more so now I got a stock that's up like 45% in a month and I barely own enough to even get excited so I don't really know how to answer your question or whether or not that does I just wanted to share that because I think if I bottle it up it doesn't do me any favors later in the day all right I appreciate you letting that out you feel better no maybe you will after the break
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