저자: ThatMartiniGuy · 외국인
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마이클 배리의 Substack 분석을 인용해 AI 사이클 막바지이며 반도체·AI 관련주 급등 후 대폭락이 올 수 있다고 주장. 비트코인은 4.5백만 달러 규모 숏 포지션을 보유하며 4만 달러까지 하락 가능성을 언급. S&P500과 나스닥 과열을 경고하고, 알트코인 일부 익절을 권유. 발언자는 특정 거래소 가입 프로모션을 함께 홍보함.
다듬은 글
Michael Burry just posted a complete breakdown in his Substack, which is a $50 a month paid-for thing that I signed up for this morning cuz I was fascinated to know what his take on the market is. And his take, honestly, is completely terrifying. And I covered this completely on my second channel, and you can watch it by clicking the thing in the top corner right now.
But in essence, Michael Burry says, "I have become the boy who cried wolf." He has said the market is going to crash so many times that no one really cares what he says anymore. But this time, he is presenting an in-depth theory. dumbing the theory down too much, he basically says, "We are towards the very top of the AI cycle, and generally you get another expedited pump to the upside followed by an almighty crash that lasts for years and years and years as people realize the technology just won't change their lives in the way that they think it will." But there's a particularly interesting segment that says, "Back then, nearing the last stages of the tech-media-telecom bubble, the predominant technology stock narrative had run many companies up very high for many years.
But then the narrative had somehow skipped over the component makers, DRAM companies, and the semiconductor equipment manufacturers, and all the others that should have been benefiting from the bubble." Basically saying all of the dot-com stocks had pumped, but the suppliers of those dot-com stocks pumped last.
And in the very last stages of the bubble, those companies were swept into the narrative and their stocks rocketed higher. So I put on my sleuth cap today, and I went over to TradingView, and I started looking to see how high are we realistically with regards to the AI bubble potentially bringing down the entire crypto market, potentially making Bitcoin's price $40,000 again.
I mean, Bitcoin might be around 80,000, 81,000 right now, but there's no guarantees it's going to be there tomorrow. And later on in this video, I'm going to dive into great detail about Bitcoin price. So make sure you slap a like on it, and make sure you watch till the end. But before we get to the end, I want to show you some stocks.
These are correlated stocks that I've brought up, and I've brought an absolute ton of them. You can see them behind my head there. All of those stocks there, they're all AI correlated stocks. SanDisk, for example, is SSD storage. Maybe you've seen SanDisk on your memory sticks. AI needs memory to to work.
So, we've got Lutin and Holdings up 1,200% in the past 12 months. Again, taking quite a dive in pre-market after Michael Burry has posted his post. This is a company that makes optical networking and lasers. Then we've got Coherent Corp. Coherent Corp is another one of these optical networking companies that I guess makes fiber optic cable.
Oh, but let me just zoom out for a second and just show you that these things came from literally the pit of the toilet and it was $10 a stock and now it's trading at $400 a stock. Like, this is altcoins again, but it's on stock market and it's going to end terribly. And all it takes is just a few words.
So, without boring you for too long, I'm going to run through this entire list. Every single one of these stocks, they're all AI related power stocks. They're all AI related supply stocks. They all have something to do with AI, AI companies, and have some kind of contracty thing. This is not sustainable.
This is going to end so badly. It's kind of hilarious when you start looking through and realize the actual percentage gains that have been made here. $30 a share up to $515 a share. We've got down here $13 a share up to $700 a share. $380 right now, used to be $5. SMCI is one of the ones that used to be pennies a dollar a share, currently at $30.
And that one has already reset in price somewhat. We can go on and on and on and on and on and on and on You get the point. The market in AI is is just completely inflated. And so, the real question is, is that going to drag us down? Or is it going to supply us with so much profit from the stock market?
Maybe it starts pouring back into crypto. Maybe we all make a bunch of money and everybody's happy. Look at the world right now. Do you think that's going to happen? It's one of the reasons why I've now gone $4.5 million short on Bitcoin. Now, I won't hold this into a significant loss and I'll keep trying to place this trade over and over and over again until we get that inevitable drop down in price that's coming very soon.
And if it doesn't happen to be a drop down in price, look, it doesn't matter. I run a completely free to join Telegram group, and I update you on my trades. So, if I make a change to it and I close that trade, I will let the group know. Make sure you join that link. It's in the top of today's video description.
And right now, as I've shown you, I'm in a 4.5 million dollar short position. Why? I mean, this is the Bitcoin Wyckoff accumulation pattern. We have been looking at this over and over and over again, and we finally appear to be reaching the end of it, and it's finally starting to get quite exciting.
I want to know what you're going to do with the Bitcoin Wyckoff accumulation pattern. Are you following it? Type Wyckoff in the comment section below if you're following the Wyckoff accumulation pattern. I want a bit of a poll here. But, of course, we are still in no man's land again. It's important to point that out because I know I make many statements, but we do sit in no man's land.
We are literally right now, as far as the fib re- retracement goes, we are literally in the middle of it. It can go either way. And when we start looking at the actual core data around Bitcoin and where that liquidity is sitting right now, we can kind of come to the same conclusion. This is the 24-hour Bitcoin liquidation heat map.
And on this heat map behind my head here, you can see that there are price actions. And you can also see that there is a bit of a purple gap in the middle of all of this here that basically means we're sat in no man's land. And we can see that no man's land exists all the way through. See on the weekly chart here, huge range of liquidity, huge range of liquidity, nothing in between.
We're in no man's land. Shorting here, you're shorting early. You're taking a gamble that this time is the time. And that's why I say, if my trade goes into any kind of uh more than 10K of loss, I'll close it and I'll open it again. I'm trading here to make millions of dollars, not 10K. I've deposited about 2 million dollars in my account, and I'm actively trading it.
And if you've never seen this exchange before, honestly, you should check it out. I made an entire video how you can claim a free trade. Now, if everyone's claimed the free trade by now, you can also claim an additional 1 and 1/2 thousand dollar trade by just depositing more than $10 and doing more than $10,000 worth of volume.
You can see that particular offer here on the rewards hub section. So, when you deposit it's $100 actually. $100, do $10,000 worth of volume, and get yourself a free $1,500 trade. And if you Look, if you're a big boy like me, and you want to go out to with some proper cash, they actually do give away proper cash as well.
They give you a $20,000 position sizing if you want it. And honestly, one of the sickest things about these exchanges is it's Bybit again. It's Bybit with no KYC. But anyway, this is the Bitcoin Wyckoff accumulation pattern, as we've already covered. And we're expecting a drop down to $40,000 at some point, and that sounds terrifying.
I don't I mean, do I want Yeah, of course I want it to happen. I've got loads of cash. I want to buy Bitcoin down there. It would be a massive shame for all the Bitcoin that I do have being worth half as much money as it is now, but that can really only happen in the event of a stock market collapse.
As we've already discussed in today's video, that seems likely given these stocks have done the same thing in the past, and they just crashed down as soon as the market doesn't favor them anymore. And what is the number one Ponzi out there right now? It's going to be the S&P 500. Look at the S&P 500 right now.
Sat at all-time highs, printing after printing after printing. This will end, and when it ends, it will come back down to the mean. And the mean is sitting all the way down here at 5,000 It keeps doing it throughout Trump's presidency, by the way. This is something that's always happened through these Trump presidencies is he makes the market go down quite aggressively, but we will always come down to revert to the previous trend, and the previous trend is sitting significantly below the current Nasdaq, which means we're due a bit of a collapse, which is why I'm very confident that my short trade here is probably going to work out.
Now, I might not hold it all the way down, but I am hoping that I can hold it a little bit longer than for a $13,000 profit. I want to make at least $100,000 on this trade. And in order to make $100,000 on a trade, I need to show you what's going on with open interest right now. Now, open interest is the amount of money that is currently interested in trading a market, and that is represented on this lower chart here.
On this lower chart here, we can see that we bottomed in the range here around $25 billion of open interest and we peaked in the range here about $28 billion of open interest. But, what we've seen is open interest is not continually rising anymore. We seem to be getting sold off. And last time it took this long to generate any momentum, we then had a further sell-off, which is represented here in the price coming down from $77,000 all the way back to $74,000.
But, the problem that Bitcoin has right now is on the 1-hour chart here for Bitcoin, this is the current uptrend. We need to test it. We've not tested it the whole way up this hill. It's not come tested it. So, it's $79,800. It gives us a pretty decent point to target for at least a partial exit on this trade.
And should we revisit that level, well, there's a gap in liquidity just there that will result in the price coming all the way back down to about $77,000. And the point of where Bitcoin's price is hitting $77,000, let me show you what's going to happen on the much higher time frames. So, this market here is Coinbase.
Now, on the higher time frame, what you can see is is actually quite scary. You can see that we currently sit at the edge of a drop back down to no man's land around $77,000. And then the big ones down there at $67,000. And there's really not that much liquidity in that gap there. That's my fear. It's not one that I'm saying it's definitely going to happen, but I'm certainly positioning myself for it to happen and me to be a very happy boy at the end of it.
Something else that we've been tracking a lot recently is the Bitcoin dominance chart. Kind of praying, hoping, just uh the altcoin market, is it going to show some life? And if you remember in the previous video that I showed you, I showed you a coin called cents. It's now up at 88 cents. The altcoin market is very much alive and well, but for a very specific niche sector that sells data.
Now, Akash sells data with its altcoin. So, if you want to buy its data, you have to buy its altcoin. And since I made that video and the prices of all of these coins have gone up quite significantly, all of these AI coins, what I'm saying now is sell it. Take some profit. Don't blame me when this market collapses and you don't have any personal responsibility for yourself, and you just blame me for losing money cuz your bag held something to zero.
That was a really good trade. It's made 50% profit. If you want to, hold it for the 1,000 X. See how it goes. I've done it with so many bags at this point. All I'm saying is, look, when you've got profit in a market and it's a bear market, take your profit. Could be the wrong time. This thing legit, if if AI continues running for a few more months, this coin could easily go to $5.
What I'm saying here is this was a very successful trade. I'm very happy that it happened the way it did. And if you want to profit from this trade, take it. Because as I'll show you, when we scroll through the rest of the altcoin market, everything, and I'm not even joking, everything still looks terrible.
There is no life in the altcoin market at the moment. It is doing in just quite bad. Some of things like Arbitrum. To be fair, Arbitrum, I know for a fact that's going to be a pretty decent I mean, I I don't know for a fact, but I kind of expect it to be a quite a decent long-term hold. If you look at Arbitrum, it's one of the most used networks on Earth.
They just need a way to make the token a bit more attractive. But look at that. If this went back up to $2 and whatever, this is you can't stay at these prices forever. It won't stay at these prices forever. These are networks that have just millions and billions of users. This will go back up at some point.
Like Arbitrum. And I'll clip this video in about 2 years time and show you how much money I made. But the point is, the life that we've seen recently in the altcoin market looks like this. It's It's not the nicest life. It's It's That was it. That was 1 week of life in Solana. Do you see it? It's there.
Boop. I actually got a really funny comment the other day that said we should use a logarithmic scale when looking at the altcoin charts these days. So, let me just show you the difference between this chart on a log scale and this chart. Now, the reason why people want me to use a log scale is because it takes away all the pain, and it makes the top look so much closer than what it actually is.
A log scale basically shows everything by percentage rather than by monetary gain, but that's not how crypto works. Somebody actually needs to buy it. So, crypto just generally doesn't work on a log scale. But anyway, I just want to read out some of the news headlines from the past 24 hours because I think it's quite important to understand what's going on in the crypto world right now.
Circle stock has rallied 15% as Wall Street sees further upside in stablecoin adoption. I completely agree. Private currency is the new public currency. Sailor has signaled another Bitcoin buy after hinting at selling in Q1 earnings call. This guy will continually buy and then one day he will sell and the market will collapse.
And then of course, this man, Mr. Starmer, right now they are live on Sky News just trying to just destroy Keir Starmer's career. I don't see how any of this helps the UK. I think it makes us look a bit ridiculous as a nation that we're trying to oust the PM and we're covering ousting a PM and the PM's already said I'm not going anywhere.
I don't know why we feel as a country we need more instability and I understand the argument but that the man is a wet lettuce. He is a wet lettuce. But I'd I'd rather a wet lettuce run the country than somebody that's never run the country or a political party or anything like that before. And that is literally the alternative.
The only thing the opposition here has actually achieved is Brexit and I know that many of my viewers are Brexit people because look, you're from England, they brainwashed you. But there has been nothing positive that has come out of that apart from ruining your passport but the thing is you're probably too poor to go on holiday anyway.
But anyway, do you think I'm going to end up closing my trade? Let me know. Comment section below. Check out Ubit, it's a fantastic exchange and thank you for watching today. If you learned something, drop a like. If you like the video, drop a like and I'll see you in the next one. Goodbye.
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