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our next guest that feels investors are still too cautious uh but he thinks that uh the fear of May or the sell of sell in May and go away will turn into Buy in May Tom Lee is managing partner head of research at fund Strike Global advisors as well as a CNBC contributor we'll never forget the call that uh that you made and it was one of many uh pretty good calls but uh it was what the S&P was going to do near-term based on inflation uh not being as bad is what was built in to the market and I think you're kind of returning to that theme and I don't really I'd like to know why you think that uh what do you know about uh inflation that that the market doesn't seem to understand right now you you don't think we need to be as hawkish as we are yes uh a lot of it has to do with why CPI has remained stubbornly High um Powell talked about it that there's this residual lag associated with housing so even though home prices are stabilized I Ing and rents are actually getting back to sort of traditional rates of growth it's still reported in CPI at close to 6% and then the second piece is auto insurance is what pow calls non-housing Services auto insurance is rising at 21% now a lot of that's because auto insurance rates are actually jumping but that's not going to keep going 20% forever once that starts to normalize then you can think about what median inflation is which is running at 1.8% so I think inflation's going to sort of cool pretty dramatically I don't know when but it'll be sometime in the second half of this year I I think you maybe a couple months ago you weren't quite as bullish I'm not sure what what your reason but you came on and and said it might be tougher going and we did have a a series of inflation numbers that were hotter than than people thought yes did we not we did I mean yes yeah and that you think that's not going to be the case as much from here that's right I think going forward a couple things are better one is like the this job market wasn't isn't so red hot anymore so I think the fed's not on its heels as much about you know uh inflation could fall and then I think that the things I mentioned housing and auto insurance are going to start to cool so inflation prints start to look better and we know that we had a big reset in April so I think it looks pretty good for now you must agree I guess that the FED right now is in restrictive territory because I've been amazed at how the default position for japal has been for weeks and months that we need to cut eventually he never even it it it seems like the idea of hiking has never even crossed his mind and he took it off off the table again last week basically but it's weird to me with the economy as strong as it was and inflation as sticky as it was I don't know why that was was his default position I don't know why he just wasn't more uh a asymmetric or symmetric I don't know why he just didn't say the RIS were symmetric both ways he he seems so sure he's jonesing to cut rates he's Jo he really wants to and the market believes him and every time he says it the market rallies and gets ahead of itself yes I I mean my sort of guess is I I don't think the fed's that comfortable with long-term rates at these levels it's it is quite high and as you know it's putting a lot of pressure uh on Regional banking um you know I mean it's really hurting their balance sheet it's the cost of money is quite High especially relative to the rest of world you think we are restrictive yeah I think it's quite restrictive yeah you do and you notice whenever you know whenever we get return to okay we're still doing cuts and then Bitcoin goes that that's all it takes right the minute it looks like the the printing presses are going back on or it goes so you're still bullish it's back to I don't know it was 50 I think it was at 57 it's back to 65 before could blink that's right I mean Bitcoin still I we think early in an Up Cycle so the idea that it could get to like 150,000 this year still you know with within our base case and 150,000 in 2024 is your base case okay all right go on I didn't and you know go on go on yeah go on uh stop don't stop yeah um I think it does help that the FED is reiterating that its view on the inflation and and it's being relatively dovish is is more doish than where the market is so I think that's the process of why markets are recovering because I I know when they tell me wrap it about how people always get mad on you say you're going to come on on Twitter and everybody gets excited and then you're never on long enough for these people on Twitter should I pay attention to them ask one more yeah please and it has to do actually with what I saw when I was in in Omaha this weekend with Becky you know one of the things Warren did was trims this this apple uh piece and I think underneath a lot of the language that he spoke about for 5 hours there was some anxiousness about the overall economy you don't have that anxiousness he's in there has this massive portfolio sees everything what do you think of that uh I understand where he's coming from I I think if someone said what are they anxious about it is uh the fiscal deficit the size of the deficit um I'm not sure he's anxious about that though I mean he's anxious about the long term but that he he was even asked about that and that was was not his his issue I think his issue was fundamentally I I don't want to put words in his mouth because he didn't say it there's a lot of Tea Leaf reading but just about the the LA the strength of where the market is right now and whether it's potentially overpriced well you know he I mean he's steering a huge ship so uh you know he has to think and you know you know longer term but to us earnings growth is accelerating you know Q q1 earnings are up 7% but you know three groups are down 20% you know energy Healthcare materials those energy and Healthcare flip to positive next quarter so earnings growth hits 11% we know there's a lot of pent up demand Capital spending is picking up and the isms are turning up and there's 6 trillion cash on the sidelines and people have been cautious for more than two years now so I I think the risk Rewards still pretty good you know I don't know if maybe Warren's lens is more 10 years out and that's when you can be cautious but I think the next year looks good
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