저자: JimCramer · 외국인
요약 보기
시장은 기술주·반도체 중심의 선택적 약세장이며, 배당주·필수소비재·헬스케어·소재·주택건설주가 금리 상승, 강달러, 물가 압력, GLP-1 약물 영향으로 하락 중이라고 진단. 장기국채 입찰 실패와 공급 증가로 장기금리 상승이 지속될 것으로 보며, 해당 섹터 리스크가 크다고 판단해 P&G·클로락스·콜게이트 매수는 위험하다고 봄. 넷플릭스는 하락 시 추가 매수 의견 제시.
다듬은 글
My mission is simple. Make them earn i, 's America. The rest of you, my friends, you know, I'm just trying to help you earn put this into context and explain it. So call me at 1-800-743-CBC. Let's get to know Jim Cramer. The great bear market continues, but only those who are diversified outside of technology will know it.
For days on end, the stock has been falling again and again. Only the large semiconductor and data center companies, with tailwinds, driven by the major themes of our time: accelerated computing and artificial intelligence, do not fall. These technology players are so strong that they end up sustaining the averages, even today.
That's why the Dow Jones Industrial Average , which has little exposure to technology, fell 26 points, while the S&P advanced 0.55%. Much of it, everything related to technology and the Nasdaq, loaded with semiconductors and software, gained 1.24%, and that's what people look at, even if it's not noticeable in the averages.
Today was one of the worst days of what I'm starting to call the great selective bear market of 2024-2025. The bear has been roaming all kinds of areas, wreaking havoc on basic consumer goods, the energy sector, health, and materials stocks; all groups that performed dramatically poorly last year and are doing so again.
Now, understand the hyperbole here. I am simply pointing out that these sectors, important parts of the market, are a drag. They spent last year harming the market, and this year many are already in the red. It's not just a continuation, folks, it's actually an acceleration. Why is this happening? Why did Procter & Gamble fall another 2.7% today?
It's a great company. Why Colgate, the toothpaste and dog food brand? Why did Colgate drop 2.9%? What about Clorox ? It was hit, falling 3.3% today alone . Okay, let's review the reasons. One, perhaps the most important one some would say: interest rates. When long-term interest rates soar, as they have since the Fed began cutting short-term rates, these stocks have been punished.
That's what happens. Dividends, by the way, should offer some protection, right? But they become a source of vulnerability when bond yields, their main competition, dividend stocks, continue to rise, and could do so all week because long-term rates increase due to supply. The Treasury Department sold three-year notes today, and the auction was an absolute failure.
Tomorrow, the Treasury sells 10-year bonds. And on Wednesday , I don't know if the market is ready for 30-year bonds, but a large amount is coming. As these bonds fall in price and rise in yield, things get progressively worse for dividend stocks. Even if there is actually nothing wrong with the companies.
Strange. Which brings me to the second reason why this group has been hit so hard. The dollar has become too strong. These packaged consumer goods companies are usually very large overseas. That is not the case with Clorox, which is mostly domestic. But you know how our stock market works. Basic consumer goods are all quoted together.
If the dollar affects a large international company like Procter & Gamble, as it does, it will also affect Clorox because they are all in the same sector. And sector ETFs are like gravity. They drag all their subjects down, even those who shouldn't. Now, there is the most insidious problem of all, the one that nobody is talking about.
Let's open the discussion. Prices. Now, have you noticed that when you buy consumer goods on Amazon, they're offering huge discounts, particularly on things you'd see in a drugstore? Have you seen the pressure Costco puts on businesses, where it seems like a completely different world with those prices?
They are incredibly short . I know Walgreens has tried to keep up by offering its own outrageously lower prices on its website, but you probably won't go to their website. Now, it is true that profitability may be reduced for some of these retailers. Walgreens, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Target, all of which sell these products.
And everyone has seen how their actions have simply been crushed. Walmart, Costco, and Amazon have greater scale and can offer you better prices for many everyday needs . But if retailers are being pressured, then their suppliers definitely will be too. Perhaps these companies have had such a long streak, so much price flexibility after the pandemic, that they are finally losing it.
Perhaps consumers have grown tired and will no longer tolerate the high prices of the pandemic era from companies like Procter or Colgate. Perhaps the stock market is indicating that prices will, in fact, fall. Sell, sell, sell, sell, sell, sell. Procter & Gamble's action is tempting. It's tempting.
But as long as bond prices fall, as long as the dollar remains high or rises, and until we see the gains and confirm whether there really is the price pressure I perceive, it's too risky to buy. Now, I observe this counterintuitive situation. I know it sounds crazy to call Procter & Gamble, Clorox, and Colgate risky.
They were safe investments for most of my life, but they are no longer safe at all . This is a market that rewards growth regardless of the price. So people will pay a high price for technological growth, which is based on real demand and pricing power. And they are avoiding companies that have lost pricing power and offer yields that are too low to compete with Treasury bonds.
I don't expect that dynamic to change anytime soon. The next bear market, heavens, is in the healthcare sector, as this group has fallen 20% from its highs. Next week, I'm going to the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference to find out what the hell is going on in this sector. And I'm stunned. These actions are simply horrific.
Humana has fallen 43% from its peak. HCA, the hospital company, has fallen by 29%. That one has been a winner for years. Cigna has dropped by 25%. Very well managed. Centene has dropped by 23%. A wasteland of exhausted companies. Look at biotechnology. Oh. Vertex has fallen 23% on the stock market. That's a great company.
Amgen, a Dow stock, has fallen 25%. Regeneron, for the love of God. Biogen has fallen a lot. Moderna has dropped a horrible 75%. Remember when they were strong, now they are detestable. The food group is taking a hard hit. Hormel, a large company, is down 17% from its peak. Smucker, General Mills and Conagra have fallen 19%.
Hershey, Campbell, Kraft Heinz and Mondelez have all dropped by about 20% and a bit more. That's incredible. Higher interest rates, a stronger dollar, and upward pressure on prices. But let's also add GLP-1 weight loss medications. We know that these companies hate to admit that GLP-1 has anything to do with their weakness.
But that Cornell Business School study I mentioned last week talked about a 6% decrease in grocery spending for those taking GLP-1 medications; Processed foods are designed in part to create cravings. But when you receive these GLP-1 injections, you don't crave anything. Perhaps the drop in sales is just beginning.
Perhaps that's what the actions say. What else? The real estate wasteland. Just today, we saw Federal Realty and Kimco shopping centers, and Spirit Realty, being destroyed. The worst stocks, two of the worst stocks in the S&P. Now , this is very unusual. These companies are linked to interest rates, and the rise in long-term rates has hurt them.
But the businesses themselves are fantastic. However, that doesn't matter to the stocks. What matters are the interest rates. Oh, listen up. As bad as they are because of what I said about rates, the bear market has really hit construction companies hard. The falls are amazing. Lennar was trading at 193 in September.
It's now at 135. Toll Brothers went from 169 to 126. PulteGroup from 149 to 109. D.R. Horton went from 199 to 139 in the blink of an eye. What do you think this means? I think housing prices are going to fall, maybe much more. Something no one is thinking about. But nothing is as bad as materials, mining, and minerals.
When you look at the actions of this group, I'm talking about plastic, I'm talking about wood. That's almost enough steel. That's almost enough. Something must be going on. If you didn't know more, you'd think there was a recession. Chemicals, paper, copper, and steel are all anticipating a definitive recession.
There is no other way to explain such a decline. Nucor is down 41% from its peak, Freeport-McMoRan is down 32%, and Southern Copper is down 30%. Cleveland-Cliffs has fallen from $22 to $9. And what about the oil companies? They're all horrible too. Which brings me to a thesis that is not talked about much.
When we see all these Federal Reserve officials telling us that inflation is not under control, it's true. There is a lot of inflation, particularly in the supermarket. But in conclusion, seeing these stocks perform so poorly, I can only say that perhaps the Fed should be careful what it wishes for.
Companies that represent a huge part of the real economy have seen their shares plummet. Could their earnings be that lagging? And could inflation be moving much faster than expected? Considering the stocks that are falling and the magnitude of the drops, I'd say I would n't be surprised at all. I'm going with Frank to Texas.
Frank. Hi Jim, a warm greeting to the Philadelphia Eagles. Booyah to you! For sure yes. Let's hope things go well for her. Booyah! What's up? Well, first of all, a sincere thank you for everything you have done for my wife and me. You made a big difference in our lives. Thank you. Never retire. Yes.
Well, I'll tell you something. I want to hear that, I think my wife wants to hear that. She wants to hear people say that because I know she feels I'm getting a little old, but I like being here. What's going on? Well, Jim, I have a position in Netflix with a cost basis of 989 or 892 and I've been buying on the lows, and I'm wondering if I should buy more, hold, or sell.
I would buy more. I know the chart seems to be plummeting. Maybe you'll wait until 800, but I would buy more. I think they're still the value everyone talks about at work. It's very unusual to have something like this . Look, spoiler alert. I just have this to say. My wife stopped watching halfway through the Squid Games finale and I just want to point that out because there are a lot of people who might be a little more sensitive.
That's not a spoiler. I'm just saying she left. It's quite, quite dazzling. We see everything together. In any case, companies that represent important parts of the economy have seen their shares fall lately. The big question is whether their winnings will follow the same path tonight at Mad Money. What 's behind the drop in some defensive stocks?
I'm going to take a closer look at this group and how the new White House administration might affect the sector. People aren't talking. Then I'll bring you another duel of analysts between bulls and bears. This time about Uber. I will analyze what my position is. And later Surren. Have you seen that madness?
It's already shooting up higher in the new year. I'm going to talk to the CEO. You've already seen it before to know what's behind the big surge. I want you t. Do you have any questions? Tweet Kramer with #.
Comments 0