저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 연준이 오늘 금리를 인하하더라도 가이던스는 매파적(데이터 의존)일 가능성이 크며, 시장 반응은 평이할 것이라는 전망. 금리 인하 정당성 논란: 엘-에리언은 시장 지표(장단기 금리곡선 정상화, 주식 사상 최고치 근접, 무역 위험 완화, 달러 약세, 주택 회복)를 보면 금리 인하를 정당화하기 어렵다고 주장. 연준의 인하는 사실상 시장을 확인(validate)하는 행위라고 비판. 연준 정책 전망: 엘-에리언은 오늘은 동결하고 12월에 인하할 가능성을 언급. 반면 다른 출연자는 근원 CPI 전년비 2.4%, 근원 PCE 디플레이터 약 1.8%로 물가가 2%에 근접하고 있어 연준이 인내를 요구할 것으로 봄. 연준 내부 분열: 인하 반대표 2표 존재. 시카고 연은 에반스는 현 수준에 편안함을 표시, 댈러스 연은 카플란은 인하를 수용하나 입장이 유동적. 불라드는 더 깊은 인하를 원했으나 이후 25bp 인하를 수용. 시장 기대와 정치적 우려: 시장의 90% 인하 기대가 반영된 상황에서 연준이 실망시키기는 어려울 것이라는 시각. 시장이 연준을 끌고 간다(markets wagging the Fed)는 우려 제기. 엘-에리언은 연준이 자산가격 지원에만 치중하고 실물경제를 지원하지 못한다고 비판하며 재정정책 부재를 지적. 마이너스 금리 비판: ECB의 마이너스 금리는 은행 수익성 약화, 장기 보험 보호 감소, 가계 저축 증가, 자원 배분 악화, 좀비 기업 증가 등 시장경제의 건전성을 훼손한다고 주장. 자산 방향 및 리스크: 금리 인하 자체는 시장에 큰 서프라이즈가 아니며 평이한 하루가 예상됨. 주요 리스크는 연준이 시장 압력에 굴복하는 신뢰도 문제.
다듬은 글
joining us right now well for more on the fed and the markets Beth and Pahlavi knows here at chief US economist at S&P global ratings and our guest hosts Mohamed el-erian chief economic adviser at Allianz and former CEO at PIMCO so here's my question let's assume that the mark gets what it wants today in terms of the cut but doesn't get what it wants in terms of the guidance going forward what happens so I think we are going to get what's called a hawkish cut which is exactly as Steve said that they'll cut but they'll say we are going data dependent right and they'll reduce the emphasis on an insurance card I think the market will live with that what's gonna be interesting with that live with that down a little bit that up just it'll be a flat day I don't think it's gonna be a big surprise you have to understand that if you look at all the indicators the market indicators there is no justification for a rate cut the curve has normalized equities are very near all-time highs the trade issue is less threatening right now whereas it is less threatening right now the dollar has weakened and housing has picked up it is very hard to justify a rate cut from in economic perspective this is that what the Fed is doing is simply validating the markets then Oh actually I think I do think the Fed is going to move but not today I think they're likely going to move we're saying in December don't move today yeah in which case the market does what well they're not gonna be happy about it but our markets really happy often probably not but no I don't think they'll like it in terms of the reasons why behind it one thing I agree with what mohammad said on all the other fronts but i would also add that inflation is starting to warm up if you look at CPI core it's now a year-over-year 2.4 percent you've even seen see you've even seen core personal consumption expenditures deflator also now up a bit it's like 1.8 getting closer to the 2% line so I think that might give the reason to for the Fed to hold off I also would say that the Fed is rather divided you already have two two who voted against that both cuts and I suspect they'll be even louder I think the Fed is going to ask for patience and I think the panel is going to ask for patience from his members I don't think you're totally wrong but I don't know what's gonna have the reason I say that is over the past couple of weeks and Steve Liesman is reported on it and so many others have sort of tried to see yes that inside the Fed there's this massive debate which i think is a signaling tactic to the extent that people are being open with reporters about where they prepared I mean the markets expectations is ninety percent cut I agree with her in terms of what the Fed should do the Fed should not cut it should wait but in terms of what the Fed will do I would be amazed if this Fed disappoints the market well I get I mean that's the worry is it who's white you know sort of the are the markets wagging the Fed here and that's a real concern the way I kind of look at it probably make more sense if they waited and did their one cut in December kind of see what happens between now and then but they didn't kind of tell the markets that they didn't convey that enough and so I think they're going to be in a position of saying okay we better take the cut now because if we wait we're gonna get this temper tantrum from the market we're then gonna cut in December which is what we wanted to do but then it's gonna look like we came to them again and that they've got us that they're leading us around by the nose well I would say that there a number of Fed members you have a I guess it's a president from Chicago Charlie Evans has talked about you know he's comfortable with where they are you've also heard a president Dallas Fed president Kaplan also say you know I was ok with the cuts but you know I think he's also sitting on the fence and again we have to call two to two votes that were against it so we'll see what happens again I don't even think the Fed knows one of those incident one of those votes against it those because he wanted much deeper cuts right he want to come that was Bullard that was that was a Fed President Bullard and he now said oh I'm okay with twenty five Muhammad you for years have been frustrated that the Fed was unable to hand off the baton to the to Congress or to fiscal measures this we were have less going on there than ever because it's all focused on what they were gonna get us MCA probably so why don't you if you can't get a hand off from the Fed why are you frustrated that they're continuing to support things when when you're not getting the cooperation you were hoping for from from the fiscal side of thing so other than markets and asset prices I don't know what they're supporting they're certainly not supporting the real economy the real economy dozen years we supported markets just to get the wealth effect that that we were luring for again and and just look at the ECB we really don't want to go there are you sure it's not gonna work at the ECB that's what Paul says he keeps in it's a delay and that things are starting to look better over your because of the ECB what is starting to look worse is what negative interest rates is doing to a market-based economy it eats away at the integrity are you saying that where are you seeing that laughter you're seeing it with the bank's weakening you're seeing it with less provision of long-term protection you see with the household sector saving more they are saving more negative rates you're seeing it in terms of bad resource allocation you're seeing it in terms of zombie activities the list is getting longer you
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