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is perhaps the most bullish analyst on Wall Street when it comes to Tesla. He will tell you that things are going to get better, that Elon is the man when he's focused on Tesla, but he put out a note essentially saying this is not what investors want. They don't want Elon Musk focusing on uh political activities or spending most of his time talking about politics and and fighting with the president.
He wrote, "Tesla needs Musk as CEO and its biggest asset and not heading down the political route yet again while at the same time getting on Trump's bad side." No indication that this is guys, this is getting on the president's bad side. The president responded by calling Elon's suggestion of a third party ridiculous.
He says Elon is off the rails. Um, but there was nothing by the president so far that is, hey, you keep coming at me, we're really going to take some action against Tesla. And that is the concern for investors. Yeah, Phil, the certainly the one downgrade we got today doesn't talk so much about relationship with the president.
Doesn't talk so much about auto deliveries. It's more about coming out on the losing end of this giant legislation that we got now. Right. Well, that's something to keep in mind. And and and so here's something to know about uh this legislation is it has been revised to where the EV tax credit expiration got moved up to Q3.
That was, I think, a slap at Tesla. On top of that, we ended up getting the expiration of the zero emission vehicle tax credits, which was also a slap against Tesla. Now, historically, Tesla recovers the 295 line. We're down 7% now. But historically, the first time Donald Trump uh and Elon got in a spat, we fell below the 295 line, right here where my mouse is, and we ran right up to the 347 line under robo taxi hype.
Then Elon went anti- uh Trump again, got a lash out from Trump again, and what did we get? 295 test and a bounce again. Got back to 318. It was rapidly and immediately bought. Here we are again. Elon forms the America Party or TAP. And what happens? Tesla again drops to approximately 295. Now, can we actually break through it today?
To be determined. We have the last two times. Will we again? Today though, we're weighed by this potential that the America Party is more than just a tit fortat yapping. It's more of something that could be a longunning goal of Elon to fight Donald Trump over the long term between now and midterms. Which means you basically have this sort of tit for tatting for the long term rather than just a spell where JD Vance comes in and says, you know, have you said thank you yet?
Something to that effect, which he had done the first time Elon and Trump had a little spat and settled things down. problem with this is you're now combining this political drama with concerns that a robo taxi, you know, roll out could could be relatively slow. Concerns that breakthroughs on Optimus robots might take years.
Uh and that basically China is eating our lunch. Uh we were just going through this Elon Musk is running out of road piece on China in the Wall Street Journal. Elon absolutely hates the journal. Okay, absolutely hates it. Uh personally I like I I like Elon as as the innovator, right? And I I really I've mentioned before I feel like Tesla to some extent has suffered not having Elon.
Uh and I I've somewhat struggled with explaining why, but this article really helps. I've previously mentioned that if Elon were more full-time at Tesla, we would have had multiple new vehicles. I think we would have had a Sprinter van Tesla. I think we would have had a Model 2 Tesla. maybe even a minivan style Tesla.
These are the priorities that I think Elon would have heard from his con, you know, constituents, his audience or whatever and he would have provided more value to them. That has been my opinion in the past. But the Wall Street Journal actually takes another angle and I think it's interesting to just highlight some of what they talk about.
Basically, they start by saying when you go to China, you potentially end up like a Motorola or Apple in China where you help the infrastructure get built out and started and then another Chinese company takes over. In the early 2000s, Motorola was taken over by Chinese companies as as you know the largest radio or handset company, especially with battery technologies.
And then when Apple was the number one, it got taken over by Huawei uh in in China and now Apple's number three. And they basically talk about this potential that when you get invited by China to set up shop in China, what you do is you create supply chains that weren't there previously. I think an easy way to try to explain this is just by using an overly simplified uh example here.
Let's use this this Pokemon mug right here. Okay, let's say nobody makes Pokemon mugs in China. And the Chinese government sees that you make really good Pokémon mugs and everyone wants these Pokémon mugs in the United States. So, China says, "Hey, Kevin, do you want to come make your Pokemon mugs in China?
We'll help you. We'll give you low interest rate loans like they did for Elon. We'll give you, you know, we'll roll out the red carpet for you. We'll give you easy utility hookups and permitting processes. We'll streamline everything for you." So, you go there and you build your factories and you're like, "Great.
I'm now going to make Pokemon mugs." Well, what do I need? Well, I need people that can supply me ceramic products and and paint. And maybe previously there were no companies that were really good at making the ceramic products that I make or in the case of a vehicle, the batteries, the the motors, the coiled copper, the heat pumps, right?
Companies don't have the experience making that. But I come and I'm like, "Oh, here's how you make it. Here's how you do it. Suppliers, can you make this for me?" And then the companies, the suppliers are like, "Sure. We'll make you that paint. We'll make you those ceramics. We'll make you those heat pumps.
We'll make you those motors. We'll make you those, you know, gear boxes or whatever. We'll make you all those parts." Now, those manufacturers are like, "Hey, I work with Kevin or, you know, in this case, I work with Tesla." all the other companies and startups in China are like, I want to make Pokemon mugs, too.
In this case, EV cars, uh, electric vehicles, and, uh, and they already have the knowhow to make these electric motors and gear boxes or heat pumps or whatever because Tesla basically showed them how to do it. So you kind of take Tesla's IP and then all of a sudden you get out competed when the CEO gets distracted acquiring Twitter, uh turning it into X, then building XAI, building Grock, then joining uh you know team uh Trump, uh and then obviously now joining your own sort of political party.
And this is really the intro to how they say China's really good at bragging about how they can prop up a company to a success. But then they don't really talk about how you end up getting eaten by the other Chinese companies. So this is where uh you know they they start highlighting how Tesla's market share has collapsed from 11% in 2021 in China down to just 4% in China in May.
which it's worth noting that Zyomi, a company that only started selling electric vehicles a year ago, already has 3% market share. So almost has as much market share as Tesla does in China. Now, obviously Tesla's China facilities have become sort of an export market. But part of that has been because local dealers have been complaining that Tesla hasn't been innovating the way people want with voice assistance products or the entertainment or infotainment products that people want.
And I feel like that's a little bit what people in America are feeling as well. Like, hey, you know, we've been promised maybe a lowerc cost vehicle, or at least there's been talk about that. Uh, we're hoping for maybe a larger vehicle for people with larger families. Look, you know me. I have a Tesla Model X.
Uh, I have the original Roadster. We've got the Cybertruck. We've got the Model S. You know, I've been a I've been a shill for Tesla since 2017. Uh, and you know, I've seen the frustration because I recognize, you know, as soon as I had basically two children, even the Model X is somewhat on the small side because if you use this the the extra row in the back, uh, the the, you know, seats six and seven, basically, you have no trunk space.
You can't put a troller a stroller in the back. The the size of the car is just too small for for, you know, an average family. you're better off having a pickup truck like a cyber truck with a family of four, which is great. But as soon as you get to now another kid, you know, a third kid, you're kind of screwed and you got to really go minivan direction because now you actually act have real trunk space and the size.
And so this is, I think, where, you know, modelwise Tesla's fallen behind a little bit. But here's an interesting quote. Here is somebody who says Teslas are almost like iPhones now. They're getting uninspired and stale. You don't have revolutionary features anymore, whereas the Chinese vehicles do.
They're including uh full self-driving for free. They're including more seamless uh infotainment technologies or voice activated assistant technologies. Uh there's also this, and I didn't recognize this. I think this was really insightful. There's this talk about how Tesla has is stuck between a rock and a hard place between FSD and China.
Because in order to train FSD in China, the Chinese regulators want you to train that data in China. But all of Tesla's FSD training has been in the United States and the servers are in the United States because they use the advanced H100 Nvidia chips. But those are subject to export control and so you can't use those advanced chips in China.
But China wants you to train FSD technology in China. So Tesla stuck between a little bit of a rock and a hard place here where now other companies like Pony AI or some of these other companies are launching robo taxis in China. BU as well because they're using locally trained FSD technology. And so this is really where where this article I think actually gives some interesting perspectives.
They also talk about how other Chinese automakers have now adopted Chinese uh or or Tesla's giga casting technology again because of that example that I gave where you basically trained your competition. Uh and so this is unfortunate because that's not now limited to cars only. It's also moving into the mega pack business, which is a huge margin, by the way.
Like Tesla's battery business is like a 50% margin business. It's actually like a 30% margin business on the energy side, but batteries are known for having a 50% gross margin. That's going to collapse in the long term. And so, while it's good for now, in the long term, there will be a substantially more technology uh and competition.
You know, I was actually uh I was on a run. I'm training for a marathon half marathon. I got to be careful not to like prop myself up here. It's only a half marathon. Okay. I feel like when I became a pilot, I got really bad at running and so like I'm glad I back to running. But I was on a run and I want to see if I can find the picture of Ah, yeah.
Here it is. I was on a run and I saw this solar array at a school. Uh and uh and I'm like, "Oh, that's interesting. this, you know, they they you see these pretty commonly now. They're like the shade providing solar panel um you know, structures. Uh and I so I saw this facility at a school and I'm like, hm, I wonder what inverter they use.
You know, I I I so here's the picture of it. I was able to find it really quickly just by looking at the location map on on the iPhone. That was convenient. But anyway, so I so I looked this up. I go, CPS, is that like child protective services? No, it's a Chinese company. So, I found it interesting because it looks like it could be an American product.
You know, you don't have Chinese lettering or logos on it or whatever. You really have to kind of go through like the subsidiaries or whatever to figure out that this is actually just a Chinese inverter that our local school districts are using. So, our school districts aren't even buying American products, right?
Because they're just cheaper. It's just cheaper to buy the Chinese junk. And honestly, it's not even junk anymore. It's it's gotten pretty good. So I think this becomes more ubiquitous and unfortunately even Tesla's battery business will will be subject to competition by essentially Chinese copycats.
Uh so that said look in the near term look at that as I'm filming this video we reject 295. I think there's, you know, in the short term probably somewhat of a lack of catalyst for Tesla to really extreme like move up consistently unless we can get some real progress on robo taxis, some kind of positive expansion or some new models and bring Elon back home, right?
Bring the innovator back home. Uh, and I think that's important. Now, longer term, I'm really excited about Optimus and and what's going on with robotics. That said, the Wall Street Journal even has a decent, you know, portion about robotics where they say Tesla basically utilizes uh these suppliers to work overtime with Optimus engineers to complete designs.
Okay, so we're getting parts from Chinese companies, right? Oh, no. But what's happening now? Now, China has its own batch of robotic startups such as Unitry and Agibbot gearing up to compete with American companies. But the problem with this as well is it's not just that they're Chinese companies selling these robots in China.
It's that Amazon is wanting to partner with these companies for uh you know robotic deliveries basically. Uh and they're partnering with Chinese companies to do these. Yeah. Amazon is exploring the use of humanoid robots for package deliveries focusing on Chinese-based Unit uh as a partner, right? And so then when you look at Unitry, this is the Unit.
Uh oh, look, and they advertise Liar on their front page. It's almost like a purposeful like middle finger to Elon or whatever, but I think it's interesting. You know, they've got the whole dog with the lidar head, which looks kind of funny, honestly. Uh, Unitry first universal humanoid robot. Buy now.
Anyway, oh yeah, contact the sales team, of course. Uh, I mean, I'd love to buy a humanoid robot and make it do things for me. It'll happen in the future, but I do also, you know, we were talking about this a little bit yesterday. There there are some problems with humanoids and it's one of the reasons I love symbotic so much because humanoids you're really trying to create these joints that you could just use 24/7 and you're it's the real problem is overheating the actuators in all these various different joints the hips the elbows and then the question is do you really need this?
you know, do you does it really need to be a human or can it just be like a robotic arm that does the same thing over and over again? You know, that's another thing is like we see these robots picking things up, but like how much how often can they really pick up heavy things over and over again? Like I almost kind of wonder like I was um you know playing uh uh airsoft with the boys and uh what we found is if we used forgive this battery capping up but if if you use these often they overheat too, right?
And that's just from shooting an airsoft gun. The the motors overheat. It's like oh we have to wait to cool this thing down. Imagine the actuators on a humanoid robot. Uh so there are definitely some challenges to get through and and I'm not uh you know I'm I'm optimistic that Tesla will be able to figure it out but I do understand and realize why people are concerned about Chinese competition for Tesla.
Uh and what might happen is that maybe Elon's, you know, America party, the America party, which I actually think would be great for California. Like I think in California that's what you need because you just you need kind of like a coalition centrist party that could pull together Republicans and Democrats in California.
And then maybe you could actually get away from like this extreme left California and have like a reasonable middle ground in California. You could probably pull it off in California because of the way California's primary system works. uh all all parties show up in the primary and it's basically first two past the post make it in a governor race which is interesting uh you know could could work with Elon's America party and I'm optimistic about what he's doing in the long term but I definitely see those headwinds that in the short term could could create some buying opportunities for Tesla especially over the next 6 months because remember what we said in previous videos over the next 6 months we're getting hit by the removal of the ZEV credits the zero emission vehicle credits those are basically becoming worthless and we're losing that.
We've already lost the ZEV credits. Those are already done for Q3. So Q3 earnings will be in October. You'll still see ZEV credits in Q2, but Tesla might guide or give a heads up that, hey, yeah, we're expecting to lose ZEV credits in the earnings call, which would be bad. Uh, and then you're going to be up against the expiration of the $7,500 tax credit September 30th, which is a negative catalyst for Q uh well, technically you'll have a good Q3, but you won't see Q3 earnings again until October.
Uh, so somewhere between October and January, I think you potentially bake in the worst of the news. maybe ends up being a buying opportunity because the one thing that I do believe Tesla has that they're so good at is some of the best manufacturing within America. And that's why I wish we had an Elon that that would just double down on what he's good at, which is manufacturing uh these vehicles.
You know, I respect that highly. Uh and so I do think there'll be a longer term opportunity, but you know, for now it's all going to be about this uh this line right here. Somebody in the chat says Q3 will be an absolute disaster. Somebody says, "Tesla owns 15,000 bitcoins. It's going to be clutch hopefully." Uh, somebody else writes, "Tesa's a $50 stock." Somebody else says, "Phone home." Uh, if people It could if people in California didn't hate Elon so much.
Well, that's also a problem. Somebody else writes, "Stay in your lane, Elon." It's ironic for like a self-driving vehicle company. Uh, so the anti-Elon stickers are German. Don't buy it. says someone. Okay. Uh Q3 saved by pull forward. Maybe you could get the pull forward from the expiration of $7,500.
That's true. Uh overheating joints. Yeah. Human hand optimized. Yeah. But again, you have to optimize it for weight. You know, something that like what's what's an example of a tool. I mean, even a power drill, right? Like if you're drilling drywall, your drill doesn't overheat your your DeWalt or whatever you're using, it doesn't overheat.
But when you're drilling through like, you know, uh, Stuckco or concrete to set anchors, the stuff overheats fast. And and that's what you have to think about with a humanoid robot as well is when these hands pick up a tennis ball, no big deal. No overheating issue, no real resistance uh to these small motors.
uh or small actuating joints, but uh but big issues when it comes to heavier. Tom from MySpace says, "Tell us about House." Uh we're we're probably going to do an AI day. I I feel like this this after we have our board meeting, which is tentatively scheduled for the 15th, we want to do like a you know, sort of a little update on on our AI plans or initiatives.
It's less of a plan and more of an initiative at this point. uh which I would say is more progressed mostly because we feel like inside house we've had a pretty exciting sort of AI breakthrough that that is licensable and so it's a small portion of our business that could end up becoming a very large portion of the business.
So we're pretty excited about that just because there's so little AI competition in real estate. Uh but thanks for mentioning that. Uh anyway, anything else on Tesla here? Tesla's one robo taxi crash away from $200 or lower. No. Kevin, when you do paintball, do you go giddy form or do you stay in tree form?
Oh, kitty form. Like Tesla Drew. I'm a big fan of kitty form. Stealth mode. Coming up behind people is the most satisfying thing when it comes to paintball or uh or airsoft. The problem is when you come up behind people, you end up getting shot by your own team or the people respawning. So, you kind of have to be quick.
Uh and you usually end up getting taken out by either your own team or the other team. It's the worst. Anyway, all right. So, so that's my take on on Tesla. Uh what somebody oh writes here margin. Uh okay, that's another fair point to bring up quickly on Tesla margins. Tesla battery margins will will compress over time just naturally as the industry expands.
Uh but also uh I would make the argument that uh t I don't know that Tesla gets the benefit from Tesla leasing uh on solar. See solar and power purchase agreement plans actually get carveouts in the big beautiful bill where you still the companies still get tax benefits. But I don't know that companies like a Sunun or whatever, I don't know that they lease or PP uh a the solar panels.
So because the solar panels you get from Tesla, I believe you just buy or finance them. I believe, let me just put an address in here. I believe you end up with uh a lack of the benefit of the leftover big beautiful bill provisions because again if you buy it outright you get cut out. Uh so if I exclude Yeah, it's pretty expensive.
So, I just put in my atti here. And so, I get recommended 22 kilowatts of solar, 55 panels, uh, two power walls is going to cost me $80,000 without the tax credits and incentives, right? That's a lot. And so, I could either pay cash or finance it because I'm not able to lease it through Tesla and I can't do a power purchase agreement.
Unfortunately, I lose more tax benefits in the big beautiful bill. Somebody in the chat here says 70 to 80% of Sunun's business is a power purchase agreement. Exactly. So they actually benefit from the big beautiful bill where Tesla loses on that solar side which is also a little bit unfortunate. Uh, and then on top of that, when it comes to vehicle margins, I hate to say it as well, but unfortunately when the $7,500 tax credit goes away, you're probably going to have to lower the price of the Tesla Model Y.
Uh, so right now the Tesla Model Y includes that $7,500 tax credit. So you that cash price of $45,000 is really 375. Unfortunately, when that tax credit goes away, Tesla will look less competitive. So, they'll have to drop their prices, which will go right into their margins. So, if right now they can sell the car for $45,000 at an $18% margin, that's an $81,000 profit.
Well, if I have to drop the cost of the car to $39,000 and I had an $8,000 margin, most of that comes out of margin. I'm losing about $5,000 there. you know, my margin could be down to $3,000 on a $39,000 car, which would be about a 7.7% margin, which is about half the margin. So, there are some serious negative catalysts that I think really get offset by getting Elon back to Tesla.
And that's unfortunately where while I'm optimistic about the America Party, I mean, so much inside my head is like the America Party, this is what t this is what California needs. like, you know, California needs a, you know, a legislature and a governor that's that's pro America party. The downside is you have an Elon that is not uh at Tesla every day.
And I know people are like, "Oh, he can multitask. You do as well." But I feel like we've seen that for the last 3 years. And and and some of that that progress that we've been hoping to make just hasn't become a reality. Uh so anyway, that gives us a little bit of this. Uh so shouldn't this all already be priced in because the big beautiful bill was making its way through that?
Well, probably you know that might be why Tesla's not $400ish dollars or whatever now. But what happens is when you know if Q3 then Q4 and then Q1 earnings are bad eventually that EPS starts looking heavy too because then you look and go paying quite the valuation here, right? So, I I think there will be a cheaper time to pick up Tesla stock.
Uh and I'm not I'm not saying that to be a bear. I'm just saying like I think you're going to go through a hard six months. Uh and uh that doesn't mean, you know, paperhand and and forget Tesla forever. That's not what I'm saying. I don't have any puts on the company. Uh but um it it is just Yeah, as somebody says here, Tesla's in a slump phase and we'll just have to accept it.
You know, just sort of like going through its own little version of COVID, if you will. Yeah, this is true. Uh, it's very true. Uh, so yeah, very interesting as you're rejecting the uh 295 level here. Dang it, Tesla. Politics will consume Elon for the rest of his life now, says so. It's possibl.
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