저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
Dalio는 현재 미국의 부채 사이클 후반부 진입을 경고한다. 정부 부채 급증과 중앙은행의 채권 매입이 부의 재분배를 낳았고, 실질금리는 높게 유지되어 스태그플레이션 성격의 환경이 될 것이라 본다. 채권 수요 부족(수급 리스크), 국내 양극화와 포퓰리즘, 미중 지정학 갈등이 맞물려 리스크가 크다고 진단한다. 단기 전망보다 구조적 경고가 중심이며, 향후 5~10년은 AI 기술이 생활수준을 높일지 전쟁에 쓰일지에 따라 세계가 크게 달라질 것으로 본다.
다듬은 글
three big things happened in my are happening in our lifetimes that never happened be before let me say that again three things that surprise us that haven't happened in our lifetimes but happened many times through history are the creation of an enormous amount of debt and debt monetization the second is the internal conflict the large wealth gaps and the internal conflict that makes the politics of uh populism and so on and the third is the great power conflict uh comparable Powers the United States and China and the possibilities of War there are very basic simple things that there is um there is a debt cycle there are short debt Cycles we're used to those they last on average about seven years give or take about three um and you know you have recession and interest rates are low inflation is low and the Federal Reserve becomes stimulative and then you have have growth you have non-inflationary growth then you have inflationary growth and they tighten monetary policy and then you have the slow up or the recession that follows until the cycle participates we've had 12 of those we're in the 13th so the level of interest rates it's you have to satisfy a debtor and a creditor and so that means interest rates have to be high enough that the Creditor gets a real return higher than their money and so and if you don't do that you create the cycle that we have before where money is essentially free interest rates are nil or in some case negative and you have a situation where you don't have to pay principal so money was essentially free then that imbalance is enormous and it's made more enormous because even then the supply demand is not adequate there's not enough demand to buy those bonds and so the Federal Reserve has got to come in there and print money and buy those bonds and redistribute wealth so you have that diff so now you're moving we have moved to a level of real interest rates think about inflation those days that we have seen in the past are over and there's a big adjustment in that this is a different kind of uh debt problem in that what happened is in order to create this big transfer of wealth that there needed to be in various ways uh the government borrowed a lot of money because they spent a lot more than they earned and they sell a lot of bonds and then the Federal Reserve buys bonds and it subsidizes those bonds and so the big Losers of this cycle has not been the individual balance sheets because the individual balance sheets have been improved so the central banks have all lost a lot of money um the commercial Banks bought a lot of these debts so when we look at the Commercial Banking problem it is largely a government debt problem because there was the financing of holding bonds with short-term interest rates and so that was the squeeze the higher you raise the debt to income ratio the more difficult that Balancing Act becomes the inflation issue comes from two parts really uh first of all if you spend a lot more than you earn um and you give a lot of money in credit you're going to have an inflation but um it also comes from the supply demand Bond of bonds so if you look at who's benefiting in this the household sector the workers are are benefiting this isn't the classic recession in which the unemployment rate goes up because the unemployment rate is remaining relatively good because there's wealth transfer and you have um and they are also having higher wage gauges and then you have the inefficiency of the global Supply chains which has up happens there so what that means I think is that you have this stubbornly high inflation we're not going to go down to our targets for number of the reasons and then there has to be the real interest rates remaining high in that and that creates a sort of stagflation kind of environment it's a matter of the amount of money and credit created and it's also a matter of productivity and so when we look at the amount of money and credit we will spend a lot more than we will earn we know the budgets we know the projections we know individual uals that's going the big risk there is a supply demand risk in my opinion we are at the beginning of a very classic late cycle late big cycle debt crisis and you have also a shortage of buyers what's happening now as we have to sell all this uh debt is we then have do you have enough buyers there are changes now in terms of the quantities in the world that are being held by um large investors around the world that have lost money in these treasury bonds and so on and then there are geopolitical changes which are having an effect some cases some countries are worried about sanctions and then there's this geopolitical shift so when I look at the supply demand issue there's a supply demand issue for that debt there's a lot of debt it has to be bought has to have a high enough interest rate when one looks at when we look at the buyers there appears to be a shortage a significant shortage of the buyers for that government debt but we're now at the brink of being able to see what that Supply demand P um picture looks like as we go over the next year and two I think over the next um two years um the real question is can we maintain can we have a strong bipartisan middle or are we going to have that kind of of fragmentation be we have two thing three things aligning that are concerning uh on this uh short-term debt cycle I call it you know the seven-year cycle we're about halfway through in other words interest rates are now at a level that they're probably going to stay at but they're probably not going to rise much from here and there's tightness and the consequences of that are going to be a weaker economy going forward things are going to get worse in the economy there's a financial issue at the same time as you have this internal conflict so I think that that's going to make for um a risky situation particularly then when we deal with the third major influence which is this conflict this geopolitical conflict uh in the world particularly related to China Russia and uh the implications that that has on uh Supply chains production in the Life irreconcilable differences on a number of topics um Taiwan Russia so there's quite a bit of brinksmanship and we are also heading into a political year here in which there's going to be more um um pressing pressure um both sides are very worried about this Soviet Union mutually assured destruction was the means by which we got through that that notion of um you pushing each other um will be the you know just do not cross certain red lines say for 25 years I would always write down my investment principles all my principles and then I would convert them to algorithms which became decision rules be which became systems and everything would run and they would like setting up a computer chess game it would play I would play next to it and we would then reconcile differences and we would learn together um now what's happening with generative Ai and then go beyond that to have it as a partner a thought partner because the um intelligence has capacities that the human mind doesn't have we don't you know the ability to process so much and everything at the same time so um I'm extremely excited I think that this is a um the greatest Revolution bigger than the internet Revolution the problem isn't with the technology the problem is with the people who use the technology will that technology be used to raise Humanity's living standards or will that be used for war if we take the next 5 to 10 years in the next 5 to 10 years it's like going to go through a Time Warp we're going to come out the other side and you're going to see a very completely different world
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