저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 시장이 회복을 지나치게 낙관하고 있으며 기술주·페이스북 랠리가 과열이라 조정이 필요하다는 입장. 페이스북 랠리는 과열 신호로 보며 진정(조정)이 필요하다고 주장. 최근 소매판매 수수료 등 소상공인 사업 발표는 좋지만 급등 후 하락하는 아일랜드 리버설 우려. 실물경제 우려: 실업자 약 3,800만 명(자막상 3천만대 언급), 연말 실업률 10% 수준 가능성 언급. 경기는 소비 주도형인데 실업이 지속되면 소비 여력 약화. 경제와 주가 괴리 지적: 항공·카지노·크루즈 등 실물 업종은 부진한데 일부 FAANG 등 기술주만 과열. 기업 비용 측면: 출장 감소로 비용이 줄어 분기 실적을 방어하는 기업이 많아 마진 개선이 주가에 이미 반영되었을 수 있음. 다만 매출 감소 속에서 비용 절감이 주가를 떠받치는 이유는 아니라고 봄. 추가 언급: 보잉 등 항공기 제조사 감원 소식, AutoZone 실적이 부양금 지급으로 급변한 사례를 들어 부양금 소진 후 소비 둔화 우려. 출연자 전망: 시장이 낙관에 치우쳐 있어 단기 조정 가능성이 있다는 관점, 다만 명확한 목표가나 수치 예측은 제시되지 않음.
다듬은 글
all time I for Facebook yesterday Jim longest win streak I think at eight since 2015 you had that story in the journal about the company's internal teams telling management that their algorithms were socially divisive didn't really get much traction and then of you Jim on Twitter this morning seemed a little bit down on just the I don't know is it the color of the platform given it's separate from what the president said about shutting social media down it sounds like you're not really getting the value that you once so I actually think the Facebook I like to Facebook because I think that they they might be doing Andrews got mark circle on they might be able to get this 5% fee on retail sales this is all their what they're doing for small business at the same time I and I like Facebook but do I want I want Facebook to calm down I mean Facebook if you get this set up where you have what we used to call an island reversal where jumps up then it goes down this happened to take two by the way last week take two great quarter up and then down I want it to cool down I mean this this announcement came out last week it's a great announcement but to have company brokerage firm after brokers for him today city come out you know you can't keep building on a castle of sand I see too many castles as I see a lot of quicksand underneath some moves I wish we would just calm down and kind of just digest some of these things because you can't have the airline move the way it is in the case and the casinos you can't have the cruise ships and yes there's some of Fang that's too hot but I do feel that people are kind of it's two happy days are here again Carl it's just it's just not gonna work like that not with thirty-eight million unemployed thirty million it's a lot of people and you know what and Jim there's you know I've said this before because I continue to hear it there are management's that are taking advantage of this opportunity to become what they would call more efficient and it's unclear how many people are going to then not have jobs when this is yes that's the other side yeah we saw Boeing today of course the layoffs there now that a unique situation in some ways but I do believe that there is certainly a contention that can be made that employment levels will not be anywhere near what they were prior to when this pandemic began and so it again you start to wonder all right well you got the stock market you got the economy are the two completely separate is it going to matter that we're consumer-led economy and we're still gonna have it what ten percent unemployment rate at the year at year-end and that may be optimistic in some people's view or is that eventually going to be reflected in in stock prices at least in certain parts of the market but he's very clear from the AutoZone I happen to love that company from the AutoZone analysis their numbers were down 20% and then suddenly the stimulus checks it and the numbers are up 20% and that's just kind of bipolar insanity but the fact is when people got the money in their pockets they did things and they were bored well what happens when that money runs out what happens went in July when the extra $600 runs out for unemployment well then I think you've got an economy that in that is searching for people searching for jobs I mean I know just in the little things that I'm involved little businesses when we couldn't get hire anybody son or anybody I mean no that's not sustainable maybe in other areas I know New York has become this kind of poster child for an economy that doesn't really know what it's doing but David you were dead right when you see this work at home you know what that is that cuts out a layer of people or else they would all want everybody back you think everyone is just good-hearted and doesn't want anyone to get sick I think a lot of companies are saying did you see how our expenses how down they are I'm reading about companies by the way travel they've saved so much by not having travel that they could make the quarter from expense side so beware the and you know things have changed that's a that's a great point and and Carl that is the other side of it in that perhaps the market is already sniffing out the margin improvement that Jim is talking about from T&E being so much lower now of course that could also go when you look at the airline's you wonder when will business travel really come back in a robust way will it ever be what it once was but there is potentially a lot of savings and margins conceivably will be higher Carl than they have been well you've got a situation where I think revenues are gonna be down but expenses are gonna be down but that's not why we pay up for stocks it's just not you
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