저자: DIYInvesting채널운영자 · 외국인
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S&P 500 기업을 순차 분석하는 채널의 브로드컴(AVGO) 분석 영상. ROIC·ROE 등 수익성은 실적 변동이 커 질적으로 낮다고 평가하며, 매출 10년 CAGR 28% 등 성장은 인정하나 인수합병과 부채(약 400억 달러 장기부채, 순부채 20~30억 달러 수준 언급)·주식 발행으로 성장이 부풀려졌다고 봄. PER 27, PBR 9.3, PSR 7.5 등 밸류에이션이 과도하다고 판단해 PER 15 이하가 되어야 관심을 가질 수 있다고 결론.
다듬은 글
hello and welcome to the diy investing youtube channel we're working through every company in the s p 500 and today is broadcom incorporated ticker avgo so over the next few minutes i'll discuss both my thoughts on the valuation of this company and its business quality let's dive on in first up this company has a 214 billion dollar market cap relatively similar enterprise value so we know there's relatively little net debt actually sorry it looks like 20 to 30 billion dollars in net debt so quite a lot of debt semiconductor and semiconductor equipment industry when we go to the business description it sees that they design develop and supply semiconductor devices um analog both have semi-conductor solutions and infrastructure and provides set top boxes on the tip socs you have ethernet switching wi-fi blue chip um so a bunch of different things fiber optics within the semiconductor industry now when the return on invested capital this will give us a little bit of information we can see basically in 2007 they had no profits we'll just not count that one in particular because it looks like maybe the company is being started up then or doesn't have history from then but we can see one two years of losses out of the last 14 years that's a little high a little higher than i'd like also this is a pretty cyclical company you go from making you know five percent return on capital in 2008 losing money in 2009 now again that is a recession so you got to take that with a grain of salt up to making 24 29 25 20 from 2010 to 2013.
they drop again to 4 2014 up again at 15 percent down to losses in 2016 and then they finally get up to 27 again in 2018 but the last three years have all been pretty low five percent four percent and ten percent so very cyclical and unpredictable that unpredictability more so than the actual numbers signals it's a relatively low quality business it's not so much about what the numbers are it's the fact that the cyclicality means it's hard to put a good valuation on this and we'll see this when it gets to valuation but that's a really a quality metric is the fact that these numbers are jumping around so much now when we go to 10-year median returns we see return equity of 16 which is a good number but again it's averaging out all these up and down numbers and return on versus capital eight percent so the only way you get this is with some leverage but what's interesting to me is immediately below this i see 10-year kager you have revenue growth of 28 asset growth of 40 free cash flow growth of 30 earnings for share growth at 21 when you see all of these growth numbers being higher than your return on equity being higher than your return on assets the only way you do this is if you're taking on debt and you're grow and you're issuing shares there's no other way for this math to work unless you're issuing shares constantly and you're issuing new debt constantly so something's going on there in order to drive that revenue otherwise you just can't grow those numbers wouldn't add up likewise the fact that you're growing your assets faster than free cash flow earnings per share and revenue suggest that you're going to get worse and worse returns over time which is why you've fallen from that you know 25 plus percent range in 2012 down to the 10 range in 2021 and you can see that kind of general decline in the quality of the business in terms of their returns on assets now obviously these are these revenue growths have been amazing you've basically 10 extra revenue over the course of a decade so that the growth is really good you went from 2.3 billion in revenue to 27 billion in revenue over the last year so absolutely amazing growth i mean 15 extra growth profit gross profit from 1.41 to 16.8 billion so very very good returns there you can see a growing gross margin so maybe as they're getting scale they're getting better and better returns and operating profit now up to that you know 31 operating profits a really attractive number so that's how you get a 7x you know eps number but that growth is likely being built into this valuation which is why you see some very high valuation ratios pe of 27 price to book of 9.3 price to sales is 7.5 all these numbers are high i wouldn't pay this much for a company like this or even a much better company than this because you don't really justify that i mean if you're paying a price to book of 9.3 when you have return on equity of 16 it's implying a substantially reduced return on equity for your actual shares because this is the return on book equity and then your return on book equity is divided by the price to book ratio to kind of get to what you're actually going to have so to me the company is overvalued i'd be interested in something maybe below 15.
it doesn't strike me as a super high quality company pe of 15 is what an average company in the s p 500 should trade for and so 15 or less starts to get me interested because you do have strong growth numbers if you can if you can have huge growth numbers that can be very very attractive anytime you're 10xing revenue in a decade that's looking really really good but it's really hard to know are they going to 10x this again you know in 10 years in 2032 are they going to have 270 billion in revenue that seems unlikely but you'd have to know a little bit more about the company so if you're liking this video so far hit that like button and don't forget to subscribe and ring the bell because i'm uploading new videos each and every week i'm going through the entire s p 500 and if you want to get those videos you need to be subscribed so you can get them in the future so we go to our income statement here and you can see a little bit more of what i'm talking about here in terms of the dilution in order to grow so much faster than your return on equity you have to issue more equity and that's what they've gone they've gone from 244 shares outstanding to 410 shares outstanding over the course of decades so even though you've 10xed your revenue and you've you know 16 extra net income you've basically not doubled your shares outstanding but i mean it's like 70 or 80 percent when i just ballpark look at this so that's not killing you because your eps is still growing you're still growing your eps very quickly but it's not growing as much as it would be if you didn't have to issue those shares i don't like this because it makes it really hard for me to know in the future what i'm going to get as a shareholder now the balance sheet you can clearly see they're growing their assets massively they've gone from 2.4 billion in assets to 75 billion in assets and this is what's killing your return on equity in return on assets is you have these massive clearly acquisitions taking place in 2015 2016 growing that goodwill by 23 billion so they overpaid for an acquisition of 23 billion compared to the balance sheet value they took on an additional 12 billion in intangible assets there so really big asset growth and you have other big acquisitions in 2019 2018 2020 so all these acquisitions are being rolled into this asset base and that matters because even though the tangible assets this property implant and equipment is much much lower you need to take into account as an investor not just the tangible assets but also the intangible assets that the company is acquiring because that is actually where your return is going to be based on so those big acquisitions have to be taken into account you can also see they have 40 billion dollars in long-term debt so when you compare 40 billion dollars in long-term debt to net income they basically have over four times their net income in debt um that's very very leveraged for the company and it's something that only works when you have low interest rates so that's a big risk for this company going forward you can see how these acquisitions are being played in here you know so they're issuing they're having to use a lot of cash in 2016 18 19 and 20 to make these acquisitions but they're also issuing shares they're also issuing debt and so yes they're growing but that growth has been turbocharged by the acquisitions and it just makes it very hard to predict the future and they're embedding these large asset bases into this return on invested capital so for me broadcom is a pass it's just simply too cyclical for me to predict the future it's hard for me to predict the effectiveness and the likelihood of future acquisitions so i would pass on those reasons i'd also pass on valuation this valuation is at least 2x too high especially because it's not like you have return on equity of 30 or 40 where you can self-fund this growth they're having to to fund the gross with debt they're having to fund the growth with share issuance so it just makes it very hard to predict also you're not going to repeat this 10-year keger of revenue growth over the next decade because you're not going to get to 270 billion dollars in revenue i just think that's probably too high compared to the size of the industry we'll see but for me i pass on broadcom if you enjoyed this video please hit that like button and don't forget to subscribe and ring the bell because i'm working through every company in the s p 500 and if you want those videos you want to be subscribed so you can get those videos as i love download them each and every week on the channel thank you for listening until next time stop paying fees start building wealth
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