저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 쉬프는 미국 경제가 회복된 것이 아니라 부채 누적으로 문제가 더 악화되었으며, 금리 정상화 시 대형 붕괴가 올 것이라고 주장한다. 경기 및 부채 진단: 2008년 위기 이후 해결된 문제는 없고 부채가 GDP보다 빠르게 증가하고 있으며, 지금의 성장은 차입 지출에 의한 가짜 회복이라고 본다. 금리 및 연준: 제로금리와 연준의 국채 매입(화폐 발행)이 문제이며, 금리는 시장이 정해야 하는데 소련식 가격통제처럼 낮게 묶여 있다고 비판한다. 금리가 오르면 미국 정부는 이자도 감당하기 어렵다. 금융기관 리스크: JP모건(20억 달러 손실), 모건스탠리, 뱅크오브아메리카 등 주요 은행이 금리 정상화 시 대규모 손실을 입고 실패할 수 있다고 본다. 달러 붕괴론: 달러는 사실상 세계 기축통화이며, 달러 붕괴는 모든 법정화폐와 종이자산의 붕괴로 이어지고 글로벌 위기가 될 것이라고 주장한다. 그 시기는 2016년 늦여름 또는 가을로 제시한다. 붕괴 취약 지역: 이스라엘, 남부 캘리포니아(LA), 영국, 뉴욕, 워싱턴 D.C.를 달러 붕괴 시 가장 취약한 곳으로 꼽는다. 출연자 전망: 달러 붕괴와 하이퍼인플레이션이 임박했다는 극단적 비관론이며, 자산별 구체 가격 전망은 제시되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
all right if you think the economy is improving jobs are growing and the worst is over our next guest says sadly you are dead wrong joining us now the author of the real crash peter schiff pete thanks for joining us um what do you mean the the worst isn't over we're not turning the corner things aren't getting better hardly we've actually made all the problems worse you know when i wrote my original book crash proof how to profit from the coming economic collapse in that book i forecast the bursting of the housing bubble the ensuing financial crisis this great recession but what i was really concerned about was not that i thought the crash was going to come from what the government would do to try to revive the economy that was the real crash it's still yet to come and it is the subject of this new book so you don't think anything has changed that allowed this crash to happen in in the fall of 2008 no the problems are much worse we're much more deeply indebted now than we were then all the problems have been exacerbated and what we have now is not a legitimate recovery all we've done is borrow additional money and spent it and we're counting the spending as economic growth when it's not the debt is growing much faster than the gdp and ultimately we're going to have to pay this money back with interest and the only thing that's keeping us afloat right now is zero percent interest rates and why are they zero percent well because the fans it's counterintuitive that you know we keep telling people you know this that that debt clock right there is going to come back and buy us in the rear sometime but it hasn't done it yet there's no inflation well sure there is and it's the inflation that's helping keep interest rates so low because the fed is monetizing debt it's printing money and buying treasuries see the biggest problem with the u s economy is that interest rates are too low interest rates are probably the most important price in a free market they're involved in one side of every transaction they need to be set by the market instead we're setting interest rates the way the soviet union used to set the price of bread and because they're too low we borrow too much we spend too much we don't save enough we don't produce enough you think we have to go bankrupt well we are bankrupt but you want us to declare bankruptcy well what we need to do we have to let interest rates rise but the problem is when interest rates go up the us government can't afford to pay the interest on the debt let alone the principal let interest rates rise well the fed is keeping them now you're saying eliminate the fed then well no the fed just has to let interest rates go up the fed has to stop buying money they they said it they set a rate and they set the rate at zero right now right but that's too low let the market set the rate how can the rate be zero now one hand let the fed set the rate but then on the other hand let the market say it's either one or the other right well the fed can still be there and not set rates they can let the market do it or the fed has to move rates higher because rates are much too low nobody can make any money saving nobody's saving so we don't have any legitimate capital the financial investment we have to borrow it all from abroad but when we let interest rates go up the us government can't pay its debts many of our major banks are going to fail you think that two billion dollar loss at jp morgan is big where do you see how much jp morgan and morgan stanley and bank of america are going to lose if the fed let interest rates go to where they need to go the name of the book is the real crash peter schiff is just getting started the book just came out and he predicted everything that's happened before and i hope you're wrong but you seem very confident that you're right now peter thanks so much thank you peter all human activity is controlled by money our wealth our work our food our government even our relationships are affected by money no money in human history has had as much reach in both breadth and depth as the dollar it is the de facto world currency all other currency collapses will pale in comparison to this big one all other currency crises have been regional and there have always been other currencies for people to grasp onto this collapse will be global and it will bring down not only the dollar but all other fiat currencies as they are fundamentally no different the collapse of currencies will lead to the collapse of all paper assets the repercussions to this will have incredible results worldwide the dollar is the world's reserve currency it supports the global economy in setting foreign trade most importantly the petro dollar trade this fuels our corporate vampires that acquires and harvests the wealth of the world the corporate powers suppress real assets like natural resources and labor to provide themselves massive profits the fascist status collectivists model provides the money into the economy to fund an ever increasing federal government that government then grows larger and larger enriching its minions with jobs to control their fellow citizens finally to come full circle the government then controls other nations through the military industrial complex this cycle will be cut when the mathematically and inevitable collapse of the dollar occurs in order for our debt-based money to function we must increase the debts every year in excess of the debt and interest accrued the year before or we will enter a deflationary debt spiral when debt is created money is created when the debt is paid off money is destroyed there is never enough to pay off the debt because it would be not one dollar in existence we are at a point where we either default on the debt willingly or unwillingly or create more money or debt to keep the cycle moving the problem is if you understand anything about compounding interest we are reaching the hockey stick moment where the more debt that is incurred the less effective it is and this leads us to hyper inflation there are only two actors needed for this hyperinflation the lender of last resort or the fed and the spender of last resort the government these two can and will blow up the system i believe they will wait until the next crisis and the whiff of deflationary depression before they fire up the printing presses that crisis is coming very soon at the end of the summer or fall money and emergency measures are worn out the fact that none of the underlying problems that caused the 2008 crisis have been resolved the only thing that has happened is that instead of corporate problems we now have national problems in this movie greece will play a role of lehman brothers and the united states will play the role of aig the problem is there is nowhere to kick the can down the road and there is no world government to absorb the debt yet so this leads me to the top five places not to be when the dollar collapses number one israel this anglo-american beach head into the middle east was first conceived by the most powerful family in the world the rothschilds in 1917 the balfour declaration said that there will be a zionist israel years before world war ii and the eventual establishment of israel israel has not been a very good neighbor to its muslim nations and has always had the two biggest bullies on the block at its back when the dollar collapses the united states will have much too much on its plate both domestically and internationally to worry about such a non-strategic piece of land this will leave israel very weak at a time when tensions will be high this very thin strip of desert land will not be able to withstand the economic reality of importing its food and fuel or the political reality of being surrounded by muslims number two southern california the land of fruits and nuts turns into battlefield los angeles 20 million people packed into an area that has no water and thus food is not good to say the least throw on top of the huge wealth disparities and the proximity to a narco state and this does not bode well we have seen riots from rodney king what will happen when the dollar is destroyed and food and fuel stop coming into this area people will get desperate and do crazy things especially when a huge proportion of its citizens are on anti-depressants if food and fuel cannot get in what about prozac a time when people's worlds are falling apart they lack the ability to deal with this new paradigm if people come off these drugs too fast they will suffer psychotic breaks and you will have thousands of shootings or suicides number three england the land of the big brother and former empire of the world wide slave and drug trade will suffer heavily the stiff upper lip that there the british elite ingrained into the sheeple will not work anymore as the british population explodes the human character will sacrifice and unite for a foreign enemy but not if the enemy has always been the elite the anglo-american empire may pull off another false flag to distract its population but i feel this collapse will happen before they pull it off this will make all eyes point at the british elite as solely responsible for this catastrophe we have seen massive riots for soccer matches with hooligans what will happen when this island with very little food and fuel gets cut off number four new york city another large urban area living too high on the dollar hog there is little doubt that all of the wealth in new york city new jersey and connecticut is derived off of a wall street wealth the savings and investments of the whole nation and much of the world flows through this financial capital as the world wakes up to the massive financial fraud this will lead to the destruction of capital like we have never seen before this will have tremendous effects on the regional economy as people driving in mercedes suddenly wonder where their next meal is coming from number five washington dc the political collapse of the federal government will wreak havoc on a hugely inflated local economy as more and more states find it necessary to assert their natural control the federal government will suddenly lose power and importance as the whole world suffers from a global hurricane katrina the money that they create and spend will become worthless and the government minions pensions will evaporate millions that once relied on the ability to force others to send their money to them will learn that the real power has always been at the most local level massive decentralization will be the answer to globalization gone mad local families and communities will forego spending money and power out of their community as they will care about their next meal and keeping warm as ann rand once said you can ignore reality but you cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality to sum up those areas that have lived highest on the hog in the dollar paradigm will most likely be the worst places to live when the dollar collapses many of you will see this video with passing interest but rest assured this dollar collapse is coming it is a mathematical inevitability we will not be as fortunate to muddle through this collapse like we did in 2008 when it was a corporate problem this time around it is a national and global problem the global ponzi scheme has run out of gas as the demographics decline as cheap abundant oil declines as hegemonic power declines this comes at a time when we reach the exponential or collapse phase of our money the irresistible force paradox says what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object we are about to find out when infinite money hits a very finite world you
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