Bill Ackman Buys Netflix Bubble!

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한줄결론: 영상은 빌 애크먼의 넷플릭스 매수 소식을 전하며 하락 후 저평가 구간의 장기 매수 기회로 해석한다. 애크먼 매수 사실: 퍼싱스퀘어가 넷플릭스 주식 310만 주(약 11억 달러 규모)를 지난 금요일 이후 매수해 상위 20위 주주가 됐다고 발표. 매수 자금 조달: 금리 헤지(스왑옵션) 대부분을 청산해 12.5억 달러를 확보했으며, 헤지를 유지했다면 금리 상승으로 더 큰 이익을 얻었을 것이라고 언급. 주가 상황: 11월 고점 700.99달러 대비 40% 이상 하락, 지난주 실적 가이던스 실망으로 추가 20% 하락. 2022년 1월 27일 기준 387.46달러(7.7% 상승), 시가총액 약 1,701억 달러. 투자 논리: 스트리밍 성장 수혜, 구독 기반 반복 매출, 콘텐츠 규모의 경제, 가격 결정력, 마진 확대 여지, 잉여현금흐름 개선을 제시. 경쟁 우려: 디즈니, 컴캐스트, 바이아컴CBS 등 경쟁 플랫폼이 가입자 성장을 잠식하고 있다는 점을 인정. 애크먼 투자 철학: 헤지는 단기 평가손 방어가 아니라 주가가 싸질 때 유동성 재원으로 쓰기 위한 것이며, 장기 시계로 우량 기업을 저가에 사는 전략. 포트폴리오 참고: 애크먼 포트폴리오는 소비재 경기민감 섹터 비중이 80% 이상, 부동산 12.64%. 로우스, 치폴레, 힐튼, 레스토랑브랜즈, 하워드휴즈, 도미노피자 보유. 밸류에이션: 심플리월스트리트 기준 47.7% 저평가, 적정주가 739.57달러. 인플레이션 환경에서도 가격 인상으로 성장 지속 전망. 리스크: 경쟁 심화, 가이던스 하향 추세, 금리 상승 환경에서의 밸류에이션 부담은 영상이 명시적으로 다루지 않은 한계.

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01. hello world welcome i am your host mr stack today we will be discussing bill ackman's recent netflix purchase seeking to capitalize on a steep sell-off in netflix inc ticker symbol nflx over the past several months pershing square capital leader bill akman revealed a stake in the streaming giant earlier this week in a letter to shareholders released on wednesday the billionaire activist investor said the new york-based hedge fund has invested in 3.1 million shares of netflix since last friday making it one of the top 20 shareholders of the company the total value of the stake is roughly 1.1 billion dollars based on current share prices netflix shares saw over the past decade as it pioneered a streaming service that appended the traditional viewing experience competing platforms from disney comcast and viacom cbs among others have slowly started to encroach on its subscriber growth netflix's stock has tumbled more than 40 from its intraday high of 700.99 per share reached in november netflix is a primary beneficiary of the growth in streaming and the decline in linear tv driven by its superior customer experience a vast and diverse amount of superb constantly refreshed content global improvements in bandwidth and the proliferation and continuous improvement and convenience of devices on which one can watch netflix's business has highly favorable characteristics which include its subscription-based highly recurring revenues which have enormous future growth potential are truly best in class management team and unique high performance culture consider netflix's remarkable pivot from dvd rental by mail to video streaming to becoming one of the greatest producers of beloved content ever economies of scale and superb quality in its industry-leading content which should continue to drive future growth and widen the company's powerful competitive mode pricing power derived from the enormous value it delivers to consumers compared with other alternatives substantial margin expansion with the opportunity for continued improvement due to economies of scale and the company's rationally growing global subscriber base an improving free cash flow profile which should allow for continued investments in growth as well as the return of cash to shareholders last week the stock declined another 20 after the company warned subscriber growth would slow substantially in the first three months of 2022 and provided disappointing guidance while pershing square had been actively analyzing netflix in connection to its investment in universal music group ackman noted in his letter it was this decline that led to finally pulling the trigger ackman acknowledged the scale of the streaming business which has the potential to attract subscribers and charge them higher prices was part of what initially attracted him to netflix he also pointed to its large pipeline of content which could help fend off competition and boost margins in order to fund the purchase the guru disclosed the firm unwound at substantial majority of its interest rate hedge generating proceeds of 1.25 billion dollars had we not sold the hedge we could have likely realized more gains based on the increase in rates largely today since our sale agman said that said we believe the opportunity to invest in netflix at current prices offered a more compelling risk reward and likely greater long-term profits for the funds with a 170.15 billion dollars market cap netflix shares were trading 7.7 higher on january 27 2022 at 387.46 the opportunity to invest in netflix at current prices offered a more compelling risk reward and likely greater long-term profits for the funds ackman invests in hedges not to protect the funds from a short-term mark to market loss but rather because they can become a large source of potential liquidity at precisely the time stocks become cheap he invested in out of the money interest rate swap options in december 2020 and early 2021 because we believe that it was likely that the combination of aggressive fiscal policy monetary policy and the reopening of the economy due to vaccines would cause non-transitory inflation which would require the federal reserve to raise rates he believed that an unexpected rise in rates could cause a market correction ackman's portfolio of companies are extremely high quality businesses that can withstand inflation as they have the ability to price their highly desirable products services and assets to preserve their profitability in an inflationary environment he does not believe that the recent move in rates has had any meaningful impact on our company's intrinsic values many of his best investments have emerged when other investors whose time horizons are short-term discard great companies of prices that look extraordinarily attractive when one has a long-term horizon pershing squares 4th quarter 2021 equity portfolio has not yet been released since it has 45 days after the period ends to file with the securities and exchange commission known for its activist investments the hedge fund takes large positions in a handful of underperforming companies and works with management in order to unlock value for shareholders over 80 percent of akman's 9.46 billion dollars equity portfolio which consisted of six stocks as of september 30 was invested in the consumer cyclical sector while the real estate space represented 12.64 as of the end of the third quarter ackman has positions in lowe's companies inc chipotle mexican grill inc hilton worldwide holdings inc restaurant brands international inc the howard hughes corps and domino's pizza inc the stock is currently undervalued according to simply wall street by 47.7 with a fair value price of 739.57 netflix will continue to grow in this current inflationary environment since it can raise prices without raising costs tell us what you think about the future of the netflix and the streaming industry in the comment section below mr stag logging 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