저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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시장은 모멘텀에 의해 상승했으나 이를 건전한 랠리로 보기는 어렵다고 경고함. 거시 요인(중동 긴장, 고용지표, 미중 1단계 무역합의)은 오늘 상승의 핵심 원인이 아니라고 설명. 실적 기반이 아니라 가격 상승 자체에 따른 매수가 모멘텀의 본질이라고 주장. 애널리스트들이 주가 상승을 쫓아 목표가를 계속 올리는 현상(뒤늦은 목표가 상향)을 비판하며, 이런 거품성 상향이 누적되면 시장이 과열될 수 있다고 우려. 애플은 소매점·앱스토어·중국 실적이 예상보다 좋아 실적 기반의 정당한 목표가 상향으로 평가. 반면 은행주 상향과 AMD 상향은 새로운 정보 없이 주가를 쫓아간 모멘텀성 상향이라고 비판. 테슬라는 Baird의 Ben Kahlo가 목표가는 유지하되 공매도 세력과의 싸움 이후 쉬운 돈은 벌었다며 투자의견을 Hold로 낮춘 점을 신중한 분석의 예로 제시. AMC는 극장 업황 악화와 높은 공매도 잔고(55% 이상)로 어려움을 겪고 있으며, CEO 교체나 행동주의 투자자 등장 여부가 관건이라는 시청자 질문에 답변. 플러그파워는 투기적 종목으로 소액만 권장하고, 피아트크라이슬러-테슬라 합병 가능성은 부정적 시각. 텍사스 인스트루먼츠는 긍정적으로 평가. 결론적으로 실질적 호재가 있는 종목 위주로 대응하고, 뒤늦은 모멘텀 추종 매수는 경계해야 한다고 강조.
다듬은 글
l markeamer I do ing but educating teachers of calming today it was all about momentum that's why even though we didn't have much in the way of news market attack on another magnificent move today after yesterday's gains this time dal rising twenty twelve points S&P climbing point six seven percent that's that fourteen point eight one percent these were all miraculous record clothes by the way so where did that momentum come from now it is easy to come up with pad explanations for this Energizer Bunny action but momentum is actually a tricky thing I could tell you stocks are wrong because the standoff and range in terms of a full-scale war or even World War three is so many alarmist media pretty I could tell you the markets on fire because employments red-hot we know AVP the nation's top payroll process released some incredibly strong employment numbers earlier this week then today we got a terrific jobless claims forefinger makes you think that the Labor Department will give us a positive non-farm payroll report tomorrow I could tell you people are buying stocks anticipation good feelings breaking out between the US and China thanks to the phase one trade deal of America well the Chinese seem willing to place large orders from American businesses don't you think I'm especially in agriculture I'm giving more on that later including an idea that you want to know about I think you're worth buying there's just one problem I'm not buying that thesis I'm not disputing at these Porsche macro forces didn't help I just think they're not the source of today's market momentum why well because momentum is what happens when a stock keeps worrying for emotional reasons not financial reasons a stock that goes higher because buyers went in at any price that my friends is momentum now as much as I like it when stocks rally I'm not a fan of momentum buying and a healthy market stocks go up or down because of a change in the underlying company you get something boosts the company's earnings forecasts and you can happily pay up stock I mean that's how you get a rally with staying power that's one kind of rally but eventually get to a point where the momentum takes over where people start buying stocks simply because they believe those stocks are headed higher and that's where I think we're getting to if not reaching there today these momentum moves are typically led by the analyst they stocks blow through the price targets then they issue new higher targets in order to keep up that's where we are getting it the original price targets we usually set around the time of the Westeros board they came to be honest reflections of where the analysts believe something's headed when a stock exceeds that level then the sensible thing would be to say okay there's nothing new here so it's time to declare victory and downgrade this thing from buy to don't buy don't buy and that's called a valuation downgrade and we've had a few of them since the new year began because so many stocks have board higher one little to no corporate news but not every analyst is intellectually honest enough to give you a valuation downward when a stock bursts through the pre-start in fact lately we've seen a lot of analyst do the exact opposite we have seen price targets being bump bump bump every time a stocky seen since the last target where the analyst basically playing catch-up to the market it's the analyst equivalent of buying a stock for no other reason other than you think it's headed higher some people call that the greater fool theory too many of these frivolous priced target bumps and the market turns frothy and that's what I don't want to see happen we get froth we get trouble let me give you a couple examples so you understand what I'm talking about consider the case of Apple all right here's the stock that's been out running virtually every analyst price targets so you got it yourself healthy rally or frivolous momentum the answer in this case it's actually healthy apples person through these price targets because in the last two days we've gotten new data new data that cheers you it indicates that the company's earnings could be much better than expected the price target pumps don't reflect momentum they're of like the fact that the earnings are possibly headed higher maybe even much higher specifically yesterday we found out that Apple's retail in app stores are performing sharply better than expected that means the owner adjustments need to go up and a lot of us those ancillary things you know the other products that they sell to retail stores then today we learned that Apple's Chinese business is doing sharply better than expected now that's a real shocker when you consider that the company pre-announced it short fall almost exactly a year ago because of a severe slowdown in China and let's remember that in that last quarter the Chinese the United States were kind of at loggerheads I thought were people talking about Apple being boycotted uh-uh when analysts boost the price targets for Apple and this can these kinds of stories it's totally legitimate so what a frivolous momentum based upgrade look like okay we had several banks stock upgrades today and I gotta tell you they reek of it I didn't like them as I read that over and over again I didn't see anything new there were no changes I mean nothing in fact my biggest fear right now is that the banks may not be able to make the numbers that they're maybe estimate cuz even though we own goldman sachs for my travel trust oh I'm astounded by the amount of love the markets showing it right now much of it seems momentum Jim people like it why good just going higher I've seen the same thing happen in some of the other Fang names quickly Facebook that's particularly egregious because as much as I like the stock on Facebook there's no real news as the stock goes higher these answers just bumped into price targets to stay ahead of the Facebook buying Posse the worst momentum Clive seen today's pathetic upgrade of the stock of Advanced Micro Devices or AMD now I know I've changed my rap going into 2020 that's the decade where I vow to be sweeter this is the decade of jimmy chill as I like to say on Twitter at Jim Cramer but even Jimmy chill has to draw the line on this Mizzou hoe upgrade of AMD this is stock that's now run from the low 30s to 48 in the time since it last room sure aim DS executors once new chips demand is thrown the CEO Lisa sue is phenomenal in the competition room intel remains subdued but that's put you for a week no over months this upgrade is a late to the party momentum call with little rigor to speak up then again I know I'm tough this thinking day in fact the most rigorous piece of research today is when I disagree with came from a long-running bull on Kramer fave Tesla Ben Kahlo from Baird has like Tesla all through the battles with the short sellers he realized the most though that Eli must has developed something new and special when the stock was much lower Caleb put a 3/5 five price target Ordnung now the Tesla sward to the 460 grazed the preys target of 525 however he also downgraded the stock from by to hold because he says the easy money has been made that's rigorous now me I don't have to worry about price targets I think the test will stay strong for a long time but I salute Kahlo for honestly helping investors to navigate their way through this battleground situation he loved tests the lower doesn't love as much higher then that makes sense he won't let the siren song of momentum him and to stay as positive as he would have been at lower levels but he certainly says please don't short it here's the bottom line after another terrific day you want to stick with stocks that are running on genuine good news and not just because of late to the party momentum buyers David in Florida David hey Jim as loyal shareholders for AMC we're seeing new all-time lows daily with 2019 box office receipts up revenues down 4% now entering the streaming wars we've had enough of a negative outlooks from the antsy leadership team short interest is over 55% crushing many buyers that step up what does the c-suite need to do to bring substantial change or the time for a new CEO or possibly an activist really good no matter for decades I mean he's good CEO I just think that the business of movie screening is out of favor I mean look my Chapel just owns Viacom and that that's also one of the worst stocks I've ever seen so I mean we got to be careful here and what's brought away some some babies with the bathwater I do think that Adam Aaron can get this thing even I do I mean is this six bucks I'm not recommending it but Adam Aaron's no fool let's go to Fran and Wisconsin Fran Fran the sugar daddy from Wisconsin there you go making like this weekend it's a kind of a plus or a minus ion plug card Jim smell really plug yeah in the last two three days Jim plug power has increased by almost $1 per share right question one do I buy more question two is plug power possible takeover by Tesla I don't think it is a means of look I understand it's a they've got some hydrogen fuel-cell solutions but I've got to tell you to be honest with your friend this stock has been around forever it was pedaling that same thing I am NOT against it because I favor speculation unlike every other person on TV I accept and think that speculative speculative specular stocks can be a small party in portfolio but this one's run done this to me and done this to people and broke in the hearts before Taurus and Michigan Doris yes hello hey what's up mr.
Kramer yes I want your show all the time oh great I'm calling it I'm calling about Fiat Chrysler there's a they're considering a merger with Pluto do you think Fiat graceful ER is a good choice other than test why on any auto when you can own the stock of Tesla County Kansas Karen hi Jim thank you so much for taking my car oh my pleasure I would like to benefit from your accumulated investor wisdom about Texas Instruments oh good stock oh it's gonna have a good year I can't believe the stock is still I mean went down at tipped but it still deals 2.7 it's a hundred and thirty bucks and it is a bomb and if it comes down oh jeez what a gift all right even though a record-setting day you need to stay focused big ball I want you to stick with stocks running on good news not just late to the party momentum buyers where nothing is happening now on Mad Money Train Tyson Foods has transformed itself from Chicken Little the Big Bird in this market could the move continue I'm investigating then this retailer stock took a bath when they report it but you know what I'm browsing the aisles to find up it's time to take advantage of the savings and go shopping maybe even pick up some coupons first and there's a reason I don't fear explode as much as I used to and I'm gonna reveal it so I need you t b
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