저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
Faber는 2016년 금 랠리 이후에도 금·은·백금이 통화팽창 대비 비싸지 않다고 보며, 단기 조정 후 추가 상승을 예상했다. 금융시장은 중앙은행의 유동성과 금리 조작으로 왜곡되어 있으며, 마이너스 금리 국채가 약 12조 달러에 달하고 그 규모가 계속 커지고 있다고 지적했다. 이런 금리는 결국 끝나며 그때 혼란이 클 것이라고 경고했다. 미국 증시는 주가 대비 역사상 가장 비싼 수준이고 실적 성장 없이 자사주 매입과 통화 공급으로 올랐다며 미국 주식 비중 축소를 권했다. 반면 광산·비료·석탄 등 일부 섹터는 저평가라고 봤다. 미국 10년물 금리 1.56%는 마이너스 금리 국채 대비 상대적으로 매력적이라고 평가했다. 달러는 무역적자가 개선되지 않아 약할 것이라고 봤다. 대선과 관련해 민주주의 자체에 대한 회의도 드러냈으며, 사회자는 광산주 관련 발언 후 영상 말미 음성이 섞여 있어 추가 주장은 확인이 어렵다.
다듬은 글
Silver has been the best performing commodity of 2016. And in appreciation of our listeners, Palisad Radio and Palisade Research are giving away a free American Eagle 1oz silver round each and every week for the rest of the year. Just visit palisadradio.com and enter your email for a chance to win. Welcome back to another episode of Palisad Radio.
This is your host Colin Catel. On the show with us today is returning guest and author of the Gloom, Boom, and Doom Report, Mark Fabber. Mark, welcome back to the program. Well, thank you very much for inviting me. Last year, we had you on the program and you claimed that gold and silver shares were the only asset class that was both relatively and absolutely depressed.
This year has been a great great time for gold investors. Gold stocks up over 150%, the actual metal up about 30%. Does that statement still apply today, Mark? Well, let's put it this way. If I compare the world's financial system today to what it was a year ago, we have now in Europe uh over 12 trillion dollar of sovereign bonds that have a negative yield.
We have or we are close to record lows interest rates on US treasuries and the debt level in the world has grown uh significantly. We have a colossal credit bubble in China and uh although the Fed has uh essentially completed QE3 and they have not yet implemented QE4. We had further asset purchases uh in uh Europe ECB, Bank of England and also the Bank of Japan.
So when I compare the price of gold and platinum and silver to all this increased paper money that has been created uh essentially out of thin air by central banks then I don't think that gold and other precious metal silver platinum are particularly expensive. In fact, we had a big move as you pointed out.
Uh correction is likely and following the correction, I think we'll have further upward moves. Mark, all of the problems that you outlined there that have led to this gold rally uh were at least in the makings for the past couple of years and it led people like yourself to identify that gold would ultimately be a good place to invest money in.
Were you able to identify just why at the beginning of 2016 things finally started moving in the right direction for gold investors or is it just simply a cure of low prices causing higher prices? Well, as a student of markets since 1970, I can say you never know exactly why on a particular day the stock market starts to go down or if on a particular day it starts to go up.
It could be a week later, it could be a week earlier, it could be a year later, it could be a year earlier. Uh the markets are grossly distorted by paper money, by this liquidity bubble that basically has been created by central banks and it's grossly distorted by central banks. uh they call it maybe uh quantitative easing but basically it's a manipulation of markets manipulation of interest rates and then the central banks monetize also stocks in Europe we have uh the national bank of Switzerland in Japan the BOJ that have been actively buying stocks directly so the markets are no longer are really trading on uh what I would call sound fundamentals in a sound economic system where the quantity of money is relatively limited.
We are trading essentially uh in virtual reality in a fantasy land that is driven by this money printing exercises by some in my view insane professors at central banks. Mark by many measures the US stock market and several stock markets around the world are overvalued. However, with negative rates uh growing at an exponential rate, you have money seeking yield.
And while gold pays nothing, uh it's better than being in the bond market, which it sometimes can pay you back less than you put in, the stock market at least is still paying above 2%. And uh for that reason, it's one could argue that money will continue to seek out that 2% yield despite the danger involved in having a market crash.
Why do you anticipate there being a potential crash? Well, basically, uh, the US stock market is now at the most expensive level compared to other markets in the world it's ever been. So, we have a wide divergence in the performance of the US stock market and other markets in the world. And it is true that the dividend yield now on the S&P 500 is higher than on the 10year Treasury.
That I agree. But just look at this year. Uh Brazil in dollar terms is up more than 60%. Uh Russia around 25%. In Asia, Indonesia is up 24%. Thailand up 21% and uh Vietnam is up 10%. So we had big moves in other markets than the US and I believe other markets will perform better than the US. And I think if you look at why the market in the US has gone up, money printing and stock buybacks but no revenue growth, no earnings growth, then in my view we are in a vulnerable position and I would stay out of US equities.
Now if you turn around to me and say well Mark the world is a big place and uh some sectors in the US are inexpensive then I say yes you're right as I said the gold sector the mining sector is very inexpensive uh agricultural companies fertilizers companies are inexpensive coal companies are inexpensive so there are segments in the market that are not particularly expensive Are they going to move up a lot?
I'm not so sure. As you pointed out earlier in the interview, the baton of money printing has been passed around from one central bank to another. Currently, the ECB and the BOJ are printing, but the US has uh stopped for now. You're claiming that QE4 could be in the cards. what what would kick off a situation where the Fed would uh announce money printing and wouldn't that really be um a reputation killer for the Federal Reserve to to go ahead and do a fourth round?
I like when you talk about wouldn't be it a reputation killer in most people's view the Fed uh has no credibility anymore. Uh this is an informed view by many people as well as an informed view about other central banks. They have no credibility. Basically they watched the biggest financial bubble occur in 2008.
Then they slashed interest rates to zero. And by December 2016, we'll have in the US next to zero interest rates on the Fed fund rate for 8 years. And what has it done to the economy? The economy is very soft. We had today uh the announcement and I stress in quotation mark the announcement of great job numbers.
probably they're not as great as they've been uh made up by the government. But never mind. Uh the fact is the economy compared to other expansions has been performing very poorly and amidst enormous growth in debt. Uh the debt under Mr. Obama, the government debt has grown from 8 trillion to now $19 trillion.
The negative sovereign bonds have gone from essentially zero just a year ago to already 12 trillion as an asset class worldwide and probably by the end of this year could hit up to 25 or 30 trillion. Uh so it's growing at an exponential rate. What is what are the implications of negative bonds? I don't think a lot of investors they hear it on TV but they kind of pass it off and brush it off.
What does it mean and when does it stop? Well, what it means is for you personally, if you buy a 10 years, say JGB or Swiss or German bond at the negative yield, it means that you can only lose money. There's no way you can make money over the duration of the maturity. Now, if short-term rates or bond rates drop even more into negative territory, uh temporary, you could basically make some money.
But in general, it means the future returns are going to be very low. It also means the pension funds are in deep trouble. The insurance industry is in deep trouble. What this means is either they have to print money or the insurance premiums will go up and the pension fund contributions will go up.
So these are basically the consequences of this artificial low interest rates. And the one thing I can guarantee you and your listeners, these negative interest rates will not stay negative forever. Something will give and when that gives uh we don't know exactly what the mess will be, but I would assume that it will be complete.
Because in 2007 when the bubble burst, in 2000 when the tech bubble burst, interest rates were still relatively high. Now, as you said, they are around the world essentially around 0%. And in the US, the Treasury, the 10 years Treasury note yields 1.56%. Is also very low yield. uh it could still go lower.
I mean com I'm not arguing that 10 years treasuries are attractive but I'm arguing if you have the choice to own a 10 years Japanese JGB at a negative yield in a country where the government debt is much higher than in the US and where the currency it could strengthen first but in the long run I suppose it will weaken Or you could own 10 years treasuries at 1.56%.
I think compared to cash and to JGBs and to the 12 trillion of European sovereigns that are trading at negative interest rates as in the 10 years Treasury is relatively attractive. Well, continuing on that thought process, the United States appears to be in a good situation compared to uh the other large uh countries of the world.
The dollar is per performing well uh over the last year and a half. Uh we still have a positive yield on the bonds. Do you think that the US US bonds will go negative? And what do you think will finally, you know, kind of crack the dollar? I know that you're not a bull on the US dollar. Uh to both questions I have to answer.
I don't know. My sense is that the US dollar uh is not going to be a strong currency because uh if you look at the US uh trade deficit, the current account deficit, it's actually not improving. uh it's improved somewhat because of the self-sufficiently in oil but in if you look at goods the trade balance in goods it's been deteriorating continuously in other words the US is not very competitive and uh I live overseas uh to be precise in the north of Thailand and under these conditions I would I can see that many services, anything that has to do with legal services, with accounting, uh with auditing, with uh software can be produced or provided overseas at much lower cost than in the US.
Well, Mark, I find you to be quite the comedian at times, whether intentional or not. So, let's end on a bit of a lighter note. uh maybe some commentary on the US election cycle. You've been asked the question several times. Uh Trump verse Hillary. Well, what do you want to know? It's actually not a particularly encouraging fact that in a democracy of uh the superpower of the world of over 300 million people which is not the most affluent country on a per capita GDP but in total they're still the richest country in the world and you have a lot of intelligent people.
You have the best universities and uh you have great companies, but all they can produce are the two candidates that are now running for the presidency of the US. One belongs to the Clinton gang. I wouldn't call them a mafia because the mafia would be insulted that the Clintons would be called a mafia.
Uh the Clintons is a devious uh couple that has been followed everywhere they went by irregularities uh loneliness, dead bodies and so forth, corruption and so forth and so on. And the other is a candidate who I admire to some extent because against all odds he became the presidential nominee of the Republican party and everybody in the Republican party was basically against him.
That by itself is an achievement. So he's not a completely dumb fool. But should he be president? I don't know. Can't the re can't the Republicans find someone uh more qualified for the job? That is a sad part of and I think maybe we have to revisit. Is democracy really the best possible system? Maybe not.
All right. Well, Mark, lots of questions there. We'll have to see who ends up winning the election. It's uh it's a close one right right now and it's certainly fun to watch from the from the sidelines. Uh thank you so much for coming back on the program. It's very insightful and uh hopefully we'll get you back here soon.
Okay. Bye-bye. Think you understand the junior mining sector and you think that the participants in the mining sector, junior mining sector are good people and kind people. Hit the bid. And the world is always going to need raw materials. It's going to need copper and gold and nickel and so forth. Totally destabilized. Hey, hey, troll. Did you hear what's going on in Yemen? Are you too stupid?
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