저자: PendragonMAS · 외국인
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결론: 2019년 5월 기준 XLK·CMG는 상승 추세 유지로 긍정적이나, SMH는 상대적으로 약세이고 UWT는 하락 신호로 전환되어 신중 접근. 기술섹터(XLK): 월·주·일봉 신호가 모두 상승 추세를 가리키며, 지지 수준 약 70.72~70.90, 저항(돌파 기준) 약 76.5~76.55. 76.55 상향 돌파 후 주간 종가가 강하면 추가 상승 가능, 75.10 하회 시 약세 전환 우려. 반도체(SMH): 월간 저점을 이탈한 상대적 약세 종목. 미·중 무역 갈등 우려로 반도체 업종 영향 예상. 주요 가격대는 103(강한 지지), 99, 97 하회 시 추세 악화 우려. 치폴레(CMG): 주봉상 상승 추세가 1월부터 이어져 강세 흐름. 최근 횡보 중이며, 돌파 기대는 있으나 상승 후 이미 많이 오른 상태라 신중 필요. 지지 약 706~690~680대, 하회 시 642·682 레벨 언급. 횡보 돌파 확인 후 진입 권고. 트리플 레버리지 원유 ETN(UWT): 2월 롱 신호 발생 후 상승했으나, 현재 일·주봉 모두 하락 신호로 전환. 지지 1895 부근, 저항 2104·2355. 1895 하회 시 급락 가능성 경고. 레버리지 상품 특성상 하락이 빠를 수 있어 보수적 대응 권고. 출연자는 자신을 Pendragon으로 소개하며 기술적 분석 기반 전략과 다중 시간대 분석을 강조함. 리스크 관리(1단위 리스크 등)와 규율 있는 매매를 강조.
다듬은 글
everyone in this video we're gonna be looking at XL k sm h c mg and u WT so again right now is May 19th 2019 around 11:50 4 a.m. I'm a Sunday here in New York City okay so let's get right to it so first up Excel K this is the SMP select technology spyder etf so basically we're looking at the technology sector ETF okay so first thing that stands out we always go from the longest time frame we had this confirm loan signal okay so that means technology sector is being in the uptrend for the past few months until this month because you must China trade war concerns you guys can see it right now we have a red candle however the PO pack is not that strong yet because the first possible level of support is a 70 but 70 point seven two and it's nowhere near that okay it's nowhere near that so that is a good sign now only a weekly chart okay yeah um wow this is okay I'm getting a deja vu here just look a lot like QQQ before let's see the previous video yep okay so basically xlk is moving very similar to QQ so older you know logic still persist okay so basically bottom line our strategy okay our trading plan is gonna remain the same if it breaks above previous week's high last week's high which is so right here seventy five point five four so that's put some D's I'm sorry seventy six point five for so seventy six point by five one tick above it if next week he trade above seventy six point five five and managed to close up office substantially this could continue to go even higher right however if you drop below there's some green level seventy five point one foolish level okay in the next target we're gonna look out for seventy point seven six so again look at what's going on here now on the monthly chart remember the level we mentioned earlier just a few minutes ago seventy point seventy two uh-uh weekly chart we have 70 point nine zero and um a daily chart we have 70 point seven six see how close they are a higher end is seventy point nine zero the lowest one is seventy two point seven two so that's a difference of wind zero zero point one eight zero point one a so these three number okay this next price level can be a very strong potential price level and incidentally see that's what we talking about multiple time frame analysis that's how we talk about an algorithm a trading system that is really really does this work it's really effective remember okay on the monthly chart green line is your short-term shortest time frame right what is the shortest time frame becomes a medium-term frame which is a pink number here on the medium on the median time frame right and what's a medium on the weekly chart gonna be the longest time which is the purple line right here oh you see how old this thing are interlocking together so we don't just have a nice sets of unrelated numbers okay we have very few sets and they all work in sync to give us directions of the market so XA okay I bet you right now okay let's see when we started it's not a february the market start going up we go to the daily chart in February of this year we can have a whole bunch nice known signal Theory starts right here a little bit above before February we got an up trend indicator and lo and behold look at all these nice beautiful long uptrend long you know long come from long signal you can go along right here and risking only one unit right over here and he's so happened to be on the clean lines hey by now everyone should be very familiar okay because it's so similar so an even more interesting step this is XA okay it's a sector within the technology sector and yet they all similar little number and the direction on the charts the way we're gonna treat them they all come out similarly and this is fun this is by algorithm by mathematical calculations ok so that's X ok very similar to YouTube next let's look at smh I believe that's our semiconductor ETF so we looking at a semiconductor sector ok we have a steel on the long trend but this ISM this is weaker ok semiconductor is much weaker because if you look at this month he already drop a little previous month low okay although he hasn't quite touched the first level 102.25 year but relative speaking this is the weakest product instrument that we sing so for hard ola you know this is 6 inches number six instrument oh because he actually dropped in a previous month low okay tropical april slow and this is a to be expected because the us-china tree will concern a lot of semiconductor sectors people free that is going to be affected okay so now when it does is that also enter into this a possible trading wrench on a weekly chart between the Green Line and the Purple Line something on the I'm Trent we have this so this is actually similar to what did we see before now was enough flex so Google was having a single pattern see mmm actually was Google similar to Google so that's quite interesting semiconductor sector the stock is behaving similar to well Google even though they are not quite related um let me see this is not in a preview I'm just for my own benefit I'm the top type of video I'm video is very weak okay so everybody look at her so watch often video that's a possible not a downturn we just because open all three lines now cuz this time shouldn't happen right I'm treating the cater happen right here already and actually on the weekly chart we have a confirmed shortener and the long say no he can now even touch the green line right up here or and go right there well indeed it was an original plan but since we talking about semiconductor I'll just you know type it up and take a look it's for a moment thing alright so let's go back to semiconductor so again the logic is similar watch out for this trading wrench so tray accordingly right now on the bottom okay 103 things gonna be very strong support why our daily weekly monthly all right so on the upside of course if you drop below this the next number we're gonna look at is this 99 ish level why 99 monthly Wiki okay so something no slightly trading wrench and the upside you break up off this is you know then you can have a new Uptrend a move if now I'm sure going to 99 103 go to 91 97 you crack 97 if you drop below 97 on the monthly chart thing we really in trouble but for now we still a little bit far away so that's these are the price level gonna watch out for for the semiconductor industry so even though unveiling by self is quite weak okay but semiconductor industry as a whole it's not as weakest and video okay so that's what we just saw there before so there's something wearing mine next thing see mg that's Chipotle Mexican restaurant all right I see right away um okay well I'm uptrend okay indicator uptrend so just like a confer up signal that I started only last month only April so you know uptrend it's been coming up uptrend here what can you do against online so there's some thing you can do there so right now is actually quite strong you can see Chipola is actually just can't opponent very high and again on a weekly chart every time going to pull three lines it's right here remember we say this potential for going up a lot and actually you can link against uh okay right here we have a loan confirm long sin on a weekly chart and when did this happen this actually happening January January 2019 okay so even though on the weekly chart only give an uptrend but on the weekly try we action for come from amongst in those things January 2019 so then we go back here we're gonna move this all the way back now to January January Wow lo and behold Trent oh that's why I see everything is interlocking everything the market has its own internal logic to it when you cannot drop your Lotus subpool right here this is potential place to get along right on a daily chart so we can get a signal from the weekly chart and diode down to the further down to the daily chart for better risk we wore tray and look at right here what did I talk about before about risk reward you risk this one Kendall right here that's a one unit of risk okay look how many unit you're making already and I just straight trading if you employ option strategies okay that's even more possibility so it's excessively challenged on a weekly chart the green line right here so right now it's all above all three and also these two numbers either pretty much bunched up together 706 90 or 80 every time when I say the number is very close that you're very strong support so short-term wise it seems like Chipotle has fun a very interesting support right here and right now it seems like presses try to consolidate little bit here but my bias for this stock is told alongside the right now showed me majesty consolidate consolidation is trying to consolidate and the moment finished consolidating okay my bet is for the thing to go up but if you drop below there's 700 level okay then we got a little girl for this 642 okay looking for the 642 or 682 level so where the market gonna go we don't know because when during the consolidation phase it is possible it's conceivable that all these suppose would be reached right now overall so far now the stock looks strong okay so we want to stay away from the consolidation and we're gonna look we're not gonna jump right in yet okay these consolidations right here we're gonna look for the breakout above that above these top right here before we take another pick on another position but after all that but if you take on this position I would be a little bit more cautious because the markets been going up so much already so they are various strategy can employ here well I'm not gonna go into in this video okay but this is all you want to uh again okay so that's Chipotle but yeah and you know kind of choppy here if he does go down you have all these number you can lean against you can even go short it and these support lying down here is your potential profit targets for the short trades yeah finally I'm gonna look at you WT uwt that is triple leveraged loan crude oil etn okay so basically we are going long cruel Hey this is a very interesting charm first of all on the monthly chart we don't have enough data to generate a three lines nevertheless we do manage to have a long signal and that's it now it's working out quite well so basically you know the system told us to get known the Coolio sings February okay so basically it's bottom up in January and it's been going up ever since unless ting we already know that now on the weekly chart it's kind of stuck between a pink line and the Green Line so 2355 that's our support up there potential I'm sorry supposed up potential strong resistance up there so for you WT to go very far up or make a breakup move to the upside he absolutely have to break above 23:55 that's our next target now in the meantime on a daily chart we have our downtrend indicate indicator right here indication and we got a whole bunch of short signal weekly charts I need it went down on a short-term basis even on the long terms with the Pope back so so far it's gonna have this nice wave pattern in the three lines so this is a little bit tricky to tree okay and if you look at what happened here I'm at the only child the punch thing right here that's because it tried to bounce you know it try to bounce off actually did bounce off this 1895 support level okay so right now the market seemed to find a nice support 1894 for the past three weeks and the upside you can really go up of 2100 for yet okay well that's the next level you want to look if you go if you went above 20 1.04 the next level you want to watch out for is 23:55 okay and so far this looks like a market wants to consolidate okay so um take that as she may so but however a very critical point what gets me comes in right now is that if he dropped below 1895 there's really nothing below it okay nothing below on the weekly chart nothing below it on the daily chart so as far as going up you know it turns for the UW to go up we do have two potential resistance at 21 point four and twenty three point five five okay if he goes down this thing might drop very quickly the moment you know drop below 18 and if I in a convincing way okay so that's what you want to look for because right now on a short term on a weekly on a daily basis the signal has turned negative okay so take it as is so tray accordingly and I would just be more cautious and also this is a triple leverage ETF usually it drops much faster on the downside and it's going on the upside so pair that you might as well okay that concludes this video if you would like to receive my price charts like issue them out on weekly basis you can email me or you want to contact me at my email addresses over there so that's it I will see you guys in the next video always tre with passion and tre with discipline I'll see you guys next time take care bye bye
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