저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 지수는 기술주 강세로 신고가권이지만, S&P500 편입 종목의 상당수는 연초 대비 하락해 경기 회복은 V자가 아니라 여러 형태의 고통이 섞인 불균형 회복이다. 지수 착시: 다우 +47포인트, S&P500 +0.32%, 나스닥 +1.06%로 오늘 강세는 거의 전부 기술주에서 나왔다. S&P500 종목의 약 3/5이 연초 대비 하락 중이다. 기술주 쏠림: 아마존, 마이크로소프트, 애플, 페이스북, 알파벳과 테슬라(+378%)가 지수를 끌어올린다. GM(-27%), 포드(-21%)는 고용 측면에서 더 중요하지만 시가총액은 훨씬 작다. 중소기업 타격: 소매 중소기업은 온라인 전환이 늦고, 페이스북·Etsy·Square·PayPal·Shopify 같은 디지털 기업만 수혜를 본다. 이는 자유시장만으로 해결되지 않으며 추가 재정 부양이 필요하다고 주장. 재정 부양 교착: 공화당과 민주당이 합의하지 못하고 의회가 휴회에 들어갔다. 타깃·월마트·로우스·홈디포 실적이 좋아 공화당 내 지출 반대론이 힘을 얻을 수 있다고 전망. 소비 지표: 립스틱 지수는 마스크 착용과 팬데믹 때문에 작동하지 않는다. 에스티로더는 분기 부진. 업종별 낙폭 상위: 크루즈(노르웨이·카니발 약 -73%, -71%), 옥시덴털 석유(-67%), 코티(-66%), 콜스(-62%), 유나이티드항공(-61%), 아메리칸항공(-56%), 델타(-53%), 사이먼프로퍼티(-56%), 웰스파고(-56%). 석유 파이프라인, 리테일, 항공, 리츠, 은행도 부진. 경기 회복 모양: V·U·W·L 대신 여러 글자가 섞인 '알파벳 고통'이다. 크루즈는 T, 석유는 Y, 소매는 M, 항공은 C, 사이먼·타우브먼은 X, 웰스파고는 (나쁜 필기체) L에 비유. 긍정 요소: 주택시장 강세는 실재한다. 워풀(Whirlpool), 스탠리 블랙앤데커, 셔윈윌리엄스, PPG 등이 언급되었다. 출연자 전망: 장기적으로 실업률을 해결하지 않으면 주가 상승이 지속되기 어렵고, 워싱턴이 추가 부양에 나서야 한다는 입장이다.
다듬은 글
just entertained from far away this market looks like a beautiful patch of grass but when you get closer you realize that this lawn's full of weeds and dead grass and bugs gumball okay this is what the market is really about not this but this see how the average is rallied again today dallas 47 points sp advancing 0.32 the nasdaq gaining 1.06 the precious little nasdaq over here but almost three-fifths of the stocks in the s p 500 are actually down for the year we're in new high territory because of the other two fists that are up a lot in fact today's strength was almost entirely from technology stocks that's pretty incredible and the lack of breath here explains a lot more about how the real economy is doing here's a real con the truth is the weeds are more representative than the healthy patch of lawn in many ways it's getting worse not better as the weeds begin i think to infect the nice part but when you look at the whole s p you can't see the weeds see they're obscured by a handful of huge tech companies with big gains who wants to talk about the other 291 stocks that are down for the year when you can focus on the incredible runs in amazon microsoft apple facebook alphabet it's a lot more fun talking about tesla up 378 than talking about gm or ford down 27 and 21 respectively tesla's not a small company he's got about 50 000 employees but ford and jim are more important to the economy because they employ many more people even if their combined market capitalization is now much much smaller than the fabulous stock that is tesla i know i keep popular this idea that we can't see the damage cove it's doing to the economy because the herd is so concentrated in small businesses that don't trade many smaller retailers simply can't pivot to the web fast enough and even if they could make that pivot it still might not even have to save them by this point now look i love facebook etsy square paypal and shopify all which are in this gorgeous patch of grass right here okay because they've all gone all in to helping small business go digital but this is not a problem that can be solved by the free market no more than the free market alone can be coveted without more stimulus from the government many of these smaller operators are destined to go under unfortunately more stimulus doesn't any anymore seem to be in the cars and it was so close the republicans and democrats couldn't come up with a deal before congress went on recess and i think the facts within the gop that hates defensive spending will feel emboldened after seeing this week's blowout numbers from target walmart lowe's and home depot they're not focused on whether the economy is going to slump now that the last round of stimulus has run out and back to school season is weaker they're saying enough is enough and you know what the last round of stimulus absolutely would have been enough if this were a normal downturn but there's nothing normal about it everything's been turned upside down you know there used to be this thing called the lipstick index which measured consumer spending work great because sales of lipstick would spike as women look for a cheaper way to feel extravagant in a downturn good business didn't downturn but who the heck buys lipstick when you need to wear a mask all day who'd risk going to a department store to try on lipstick or any other form of makeup in the middle of a pandemic not many people which is why the incredibly well-run estee lawyer had a tough quarter we have a bizarre situation where some companies are doing very well and now you can always remember them through these blades of grass okay but a lot of other companies are getting crushed because the staff was able to pick up some i asked them for some weeds it's like this place is so well managed is the only way they can find so tonight i want to ignore the healthy grass and focus on all the weeds the stocks of the s p that aren't working at all when you focus on the 10 of the worst performers the s p 500 well what do we see well you know some of it's pretty darn obvious remember cruising yes cruise ships oils pipelines retailers airlines real estate investment trusts that a little office space and banks hmm when you think about it maybe that's not such a big divide between wall street and main street after all wall street knows all these industries are in trouble the real divide is between digitization and everything else we always get caught up in arguing about whether this is a u-shaped recovery in the economy or a v-shaped recovery or an l-shaped recovery or a w shape earlier this week i said we had a fabulous v-shaped recovery in the stock market but not the economy nothing close to that the economy that actually made news after looking at the weeds though i think we need to rethink the whole terminology it's it's not those letters no wait it's like it's like an entire alphabet of pain one letter is not enough see for instance if you work or had a job at norwegian cruise or carnival the two west performers the sp down 73 and 71 you aren't feeling a v or u or even a w-shaped recovery you're feeling a t economy straight down after being flat if you're an occidental petroleum the third worst performer down 67 well you know what you're in you're in a y economy as in why would you be so stupid as to double down and pay a fortune for anadarko petroleum right when oil is rolling over if you own cody the beauty brand that's down 66 or kohl's down 62 you're in the m economy meaning every time you think you're going to go up you get pushed right back down and if you work for united airlines or 61 percent american off 56 or delta of 53 you're in a c economy bottoming but you're not going to be able to close that gap anytime soon not gonna happen oh how about simon properties the biggest owner of more properties with a stock that's full and 56 why call that an x economy both lines grounded down because simon's trying to get out of their deal to double down on taubman another wall owner that they decide to acquire before the pandemic tommy's everything finally there's wells fargo down 56 percent for the year where you were hoping and praying we would merely have an l-shaped economy for them uh and not something worse well you know maybe it's a sagging l maybe it's someone with really bad handwriting once you go through all the decliners you realize this is a tale of two cities market it was the best of times it was the worst of times it was the spring of hope it was the winter of despair we had everything before us we had nothing before us the paid from covet is not totally isolated to small medium-sized businesses that simply don't trade publicly there are a lot a lot of larger businesses experiencing their own terrible cycles of pain the market is full of losers they're just not big enough to offset the strength of the tech stocks that are making a fortune right now so what has to happen it's easy to say don't worry about it right one day we'll get a vaccine in the interim just let the weeds grow they're not going big enough to take over the whole lawn right but you know i i did feel that way for a long time but it's beginning to look to me like a mistake because while the winners represent more capital the losers represent a heck of a lot more jobs and if you want the economy to rebound from recession those jobs need to be protected unemployment in this country is too high it's too high period these 100 performers are just examples there are 281 other losers in the s p with similar characteristics and they desperately need more stimulus in the end a weed choked patch of ground signals that the economy is not going to follow that v-shaped recovery that we're seeing in a handful of huge tech names and big box chains the v shape that everyone's hoping for now there's some other green here that's not crabgrass the bull market in housing that's for real i'm not taking away from that does stocks roll in the new high list okay i think stocks like whirlpool doing really fabulously that could be a sleeper there for you okay i mean it's kind of like a running back you get in the fifth round that actually gets a lot of tvs i'm thinking fantasy uh are stanley black and decker's real good you always see uh stephanie link recommend that one i like sherman williams a ppg at upside surprise there's fintech i mean who doesn't love paypal or square but the bottom line you see when you get down into the weeds of this market what you see is that there are a lot more losers then there are winners that's the nature of the covet economy and now there's no one in washington willing to play gardner maybe it is only a matter of time before the weeds overrun the entire patch
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