저자: AmitabhMishra · 외국인
요약 보기
Vaibhav Global 주가가 고점 대비 크게 하락, 과거 반등 후 재하락 반복. 1년간 약 -44%. Vijay Kedia 지분 보유 여부 논쟁에 대해 소액 매수 정도로 신호 약함, 공시상 지분 2% 이상 유지. 12월 분기 실적 호조(매출·EPS 개선, 영업이익률 두 자릿수)를 언급하나 거시 불안과 소형주 약세로 상승 여력 제한적이라 판단. 200 지지선 이탈 시 추가 하락 우려, 기술적 지표 약세.
다듬은 글
Friends, the stock I'm going to discuss today, you'll see its name on your screen. The stock's name is Weibo Global Limited. Well, friends, let's say there's a lot of curiosity about Weibo Global. Some questions are coming in, and we'll discuss them on a specific stock. Plus, what you can say is a decline, because Weibo Global, if you remove a few moments in the last three to five years, which keep spiking in between, despite that, I would say the stock never made any money for its investors.
Rather, I would say that whenever investors think that it's over now, it means it's going to sink, the stock spikes once and when people think it's worth buying now, it declines again. What challenges is the company facing in the future? Along with this, another question came up regarding Weibo Global: will Donald Trump's arrival affect Weibo Global's business?
Along with this, are the promoters buying it? And the most frequent question related to Weibo Global is who is Joe Kedia, because we all know Weibo. Kedia sahab's name is always associated with global, does he have holdings in it, has he exited? Okay, so we will try to answer this question in this one video.
Friends, first let me tell you, friends, like the video right now so that the youtube3 investor does not have all the information, so some questions have to be answered here, friends, okay, but yes, we will discuss the levels in the interval and will find some unimportant answers. See, first of all, understand here, brother, in the last one year, the stock is showing 43.8 right now.
If you see from the upper levels, there is a crash of almost 50. Now, in the last 5 years, as I said, there was a spike once, which took it to around 8, almost 1000. This is in May 2021. The decline that started from there, you can say that the stock never came up at all. And even then, if you see the price size, the stock has broken from the upper levels.
One minute, here it is, from the upper levels, you see, it has broken at 77. Okay, and those investors with whom I was saying that spikes happen in between. Look, this fall was severe, then it went up slightly, around 400, then this big one, and this very big sharp line came, okay, then you can call it a big fall, then it went here, then you will see, right now the downside is running on risk, in between, see this, there is another rise here, here support, after 400, then a rise, then this fall, then this big rise, so I told you that in the last five years there have been two or three such times when the stock has given you time to exit, but the fall that came after that was even lower than the previous low, that is, in such a situation, this business is going on in a very big terminal, and the biggest thing in Weibo Global is that retail investors are not giving up their hope from it, you will read a lot that yes, brother, this is a bad stock, a bad stock, but sometimes it comes to light that promoters are buying the stock, that if Vijay Kedia sir is not out, then brother, brother, we will also not come out, see, you have to understand one thing again and again, if you are buying any stock by giving it to Vijay Kedia sir, let me tell you that he has a lot of money and is investing in that stock.
You can stay invested even today, you can stay invested in the coming five to six years and while keeping that money invested, you can continuously invest in some other stock. If you are a retailer and you think that I have a lot of money, I will take a stake in Doti here, sorry, I should not say Doti stake, I will give a part of my portfolio to Doti, even after that I have a lot of money, I will do it, then there is no problem in staying invested continuously because in such a situation, if there is any other decline because at present there are very good opportunities, you can cash it in.
Along with this, friends, you will not lose money even in most of the term or wallets because because you have money, then even if this money gets stuck for a few days, you will not be worried, neither will you miss any opportunity nor will you be afraid of the wallet and this is the perfect recipe of a long term investor, but if tomorrow you find out, slowly, if sorry, why, see, when things happen then we If it turns out that Vijay Kidiya Sahib has left and a stake of less than 1 percent remains in it, okay, I'm talking hypothetically, so by the time you understand things, you'll know the stock must have fallen to a point from where a comeback will be impossible.
So, the first thing, those investors who constantly say that Vijay Kidiya Sahib is holding on, should we stay put? This was the first answer to the question. Okay, now what are the quant results, what are some updates, what are the commentary, and what are the levels? We'll discuss this further. But before moving forward, friends, you'll see on your screen that only 12.8% of the viewers are watching our video and have subscribed to the channel.
Thank you very much to all of you. And if you're among the 87.5% who are watching our video but have n't subscribed to the channel, please subscribe to the channel. This small step of yours motivates us a lot, friends. So, please subscribe to the channel and like the video. And yes, if you want to discuss any stock related issue, any stock related issue.
If you have any questions, please let me know in the comment section, I'll try to upload a video on that. Okay, so do like, subscribe, and share. Now let's come here. This time, we won't discuss the stock's performance so much. I'll take you directly to the quarterly numbers. You can see here that when the company itself presented its September quarter numbers, they were quite good.
Business of ₹796 crore was done. There was a good jump year-on-year. If you look at it year-on-year, there was a weakness, but the jump in sales was liked by investors somewhere. Okay, but when the December numbers came, it gave some excellent numbers, and the September numbers were somehow indicating that yes, sales are coming back.
The December quarter, which is Weibo Global's best quarter, is going to be very good. And it did happen. EPS of ₹84 paise was reported. There was a profit of ₹64 crore. You see, the operating profit margin this time has been at double 11. If you look at all these scenarios, you will understand. Why am I calling this such a good result?
₹ 3.84 paisa. After that, you just have to enter the result. When was the last time 3.84 paisa came? Before March 2022, it was once at ₹24 paisa in 21, that is, for such a long time. After 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 11 quarters, there was such a great jump and somewhere in the minds of investors, yes, brother, now things will get better from here, but see, fate is there, you can call it luck or timing, when things do not look good, then what happens, the first thing happens is a big crash in the overall market, plus the sector to which it belongs, the market cap to which it belongs, there is the most devastation, plus when you see decline everywhere, everywhere you see, there are talks of recession, see, war terminology everywhere, see, war was going on for a long time, but when you see that there could be chances of recession, we all know what is the condition of Europe, UK What is the situation?
When some news comes in the US, the first thing we come to know is that the discerning items, the luxury items, see the biggest decline. So, we all know that these luxury items are made. Now, the jewellery business falls in the luxury segment. So, because of that, you got a fear that yes, you can say that there could be a decline here as well.
When all these things happen, then what happens? Then there is an overall crash. When there is an overall crash, then we all know how the decline happens. So, considering all these things, the stock was showing a big decline and 300 was such a support zone which was a resistance, it had to be broken and if it had broken it because it had broken 300 a couple of times, till then it reaches 350 and to be precise, it is 400.
Till the global market breaks 400 and sustains above it, friends, for a long time, then technically, if you are thinking about the chances of a bull run, then These are going to be very low. Okay, so these are the things. Look, December is the best quarter. And then you'll see the March quarter and June quarter tend to be a little weak.
So, you'll see the next two quarters tend to be a little weak. Okay, then maybe things will improve a little in September and December. Look, unless there's a big rally in the overall market, the chances of a big rally are slim. Now the situation is so bad, the stock is trading around 200. Okay, and at what level of decline will you buy?
Okay, how long will people buy on dips? Okay, is this the time to exit? This was also a very good question. You see, here the promoters, the lending pattern, are still holding on. You see, if the promoters didn't sell in June, you can say. Then you'll see that there were purchases in September and December as well, which means the promoters made a purchase.
But remember, this is a negligible purchase; it's not the kind that you should become overconfident about. Okay, sometimes what happens is that promoters make small purchases, a little bit. You can say for sentiment boost because you have already fallen a lot, you must have seen this in Rajesh Exports that when the promoter was in the fall and even now the promoter has bought again, but I would say that this buying can only be for a positive signaling, the chances of something big happening are less, if you look at the recent rates, then it is visible of December when they bought, there was nothing in the bulk deal, nothing in the block deal, if you look at the cess trade, then it is talking about July only, okay now, in the public, like every time, if you see, Vijay KDS still has a stake of 2.03, that is, he is still maintaining a stake above 2, along with this, if you look at DI, DI has exited at very big levels, Nalanda India Fund, yes, if you look at the promoter group for one minute, you will find here that Brett Enterprise has just filled the holding of 55m, okay, but the big investors in the public are only Gediya sahab and two in DI, now any big fund will give you Holding doesn't seem to be above 1.
Okay, so this is something like this. And if you go to the notes here, you will see that the company has said many such things which I feel are really a correct thing. Look, the company is saying that brother, the highest ever quarterly sales of Rs 970 crore have been achieved. Year on year is 10. In the coming December, if the stock crosses sales of Rs 1000 crore, friends, you will see that the rapid decline which had been stopped for a long time, you will see an increase in it.
The biggest update which I wanted to see here is from Germany. So see what positive news is coming. The German operation has become break even. The EBITDA level is fine. And in the coming time, we will see that the net profitability will be seen there. Ideal World acquired business. Now it has turned profitable in the third quarter.
In F23, as was being expected. Along with this, P Grown Diamond contribution of quarterly sales is 8.9. Yes, Vaibhav Global You can see the demand for lab grown diamonds also increasing and there is a jump of 8.9%. So, if an investor asks lab grown diamonds whether they will change their entire direction or will lab grown diamonds bring a rally, then it is difficult to say but yes, things seem to be happening from here but right now there is a jump of % and this indicates strong demand in this segment and see, the future is lab grown diamonds only, yes lab ground diamond is the future and if you want to see the company growing slowly then you can see a very good boom here.
Okay, the four A strategy of the company is wide reach, continuously acquiring new customers, bringing back the customers who have already joined, tension and repeat purchases, okay, this is giving very positive results and the unique customer base is 30%, year on year 698, okay, now see what is the main market of the company, you can say it is UK and US.
The company has other companies as well, the company is coming to Europe as well and specifically Germany is working hard but it is not that much right now, so see there is a 3.6 year on year jump in revenue in the US because there was a very strong demand during the festive season this time, there is a 6.5 jump in the revenue of the UK in the US and the purchase that Ideal World made for the company is contributing very well, Germany is actually showing a very strong jump of 30.7 year on year revenue growth and the expectation is that the positive momentum will continue here and in quarter 4 25 and beyond as well, now what is the sustainability initiative, what milestone has the company achieved, 97 million meals to children, okay, through your purchase, okay, so these are all things, good performance, you should know, even today look at the global, many people are very critical of it that why are you running only TV channels, it must be a very old medium, but look at the TV revenue now It has touched Rs 547 crore, while the digital revenue is Rs 380 crore.
Now, the digital sales contribute 40% to the B2S revenue, which means the company is doing well in digital as well as traditional. The budget pay option accounted for 38 B2S revenue and this shows customer convenience, which means the option of EM is also being given. Yes, what is the challenge outlook of this company?
First of all, what does the company say? The management is still cautious about the macroeconomic trends that are visible, especially the muted consumer sentiment in the UK and Europe. Now, if the war stops and Europe moves towards normalcy, Vaibhav Global will be one of the biggest beneficiaries. Okay, let's address one more thing.
Will Vaibhav Global be affected because of Donald Trump? See, I believe it will not be. Yes, because the kind of work Vaibhav Global is doing or the kind of things it does, I think the US government is not that much focused on the business it is in. Okay, now Lab Grown If there is a different policy regarding diamond, you can say that there is only one sector, lab element, which is not a very big significant revenue source, but yes, it is at 88.9, if there is some problem there, then it may be an issue, but more or less, I do not think that Donald Trump will have any impact, okay, you see, the guidance for FY 25 has been done at 12, because the market conditions are such right now and it is being expected that you will get the revenue growth after 2026, after 26, that is, financial year 2026, only after this you will get the revenue growth which you can say 14, 15, 13, 18, 19, in this level, if you want to see revenue growth in this range, then only you will see it, the company is continuously focusing on operating efficiency and digital transformation and in engagement and sales, friends, okay, the company has given a defense which is great, that is, see, overall there is no problem.
This is that sector issues are going on, plus just take a look at your market cap, you have a market cap of ₹3600 crores, you are a small cap company and the kind of decline that is happening, the way small caps are being bashed, the talk is going on in small caps for a long time, if you feel that Web Global will run contrary to this, then that is not going to happen at all, and you understand that when you manage a small company like this, the problem is the same, even if you show the highest quarterly revenue ever, but the market sentiment is bad, there is a decline, you will have to look at it, okay, now if you look at the levels here, you will find here, you will find here, bearish moving average, bearish technical indicator, bearish moving average crossover, bearish and all the levels, if you are thinking that you will get some very good returns in going short to mid, the chances are less, see, to be frank, the chances are less, in fact, keep my downside safe.
This is what we believe, you see, 23p has broken very badly, 19.97, 17, especially 200, brother, 00 should not be broken, if 00 breaks and goes down, then there will be issues, then you will see problems, so look at the 200 level, as soon as Global broke 300, it was a huge psychological support for everything, and after 300, when it broke 290, then the decline that started was present, okay, you see, then in the 172 to 120 Fina series, you see, there are such levels, 213, it has been broken, 197 is left, then 172 is the trend right now, you will definitely have to understand this, okay, and if you look at the 200 simple moving average, it is 175, we should keep an eye on it too, friends, so I feel that overall, we must have discussed many issues and many things regarding Weibo Global in our stock discussion.
If you want to get it done, please tell us in the comment box. Thank you very much for joining till here. Please watch this video.
Comments 0