저자: 마이클버리 · 외국인
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마이클 버리는 2023년에도 인플레이션이 재차 악화되며 시장이 추가 하락할 것이라고 경고한다. 버리의 주장 근거: 과거 약세장에서는 최소 5% 이상의 반등이 항상 있었고, 이는 대개 가짜 반등(dead cat bounce)이었다. 현재 하락장은 아직 바닥이 아니며, VIX 45 이상(2008년 70, 2020년 65)의 공포 지표가 나와야 바닥이라는 과거 패턴을 근거로 든다. 바닥 판단 지표: 200일 이동평균선 위 종목 비율이 바닥에서는 보통 약 5% 수준인데 현재는 13%로 아직 멀었다고 본다. 연간 1억 달러 적자를 내는 시총 10억 달러 이상 기업이 218개, 시총 100억 달러 이상 적자 기업이 29개라는 점도 비이성적 밸류에이션 해소가 필요하다는 근거다. 인플레이션 이중 스파이크: 1940년 이후 인플레이션은 보통 두 번 스파이크 후 해소된다는 차트를 제시한다. 치마스 팔리하피티아도 월가 전문가들이 같은 이중 상승 시나리오를 예상한다고 언급한다. 관련 긍정 요인: 인플레 둔화, 학자금 대출 탕감 법원 제동(디플레 요인), 분할 정부로 추가 재정부양 가능성 낮음, 우크라이나·중국 관련 이슈 등을 나열하며 단기 상승 여지도 인정한다. 포트폴리오 전략: 소비재·기술 등 비필수 산업보다 프리즌(교도소), 통신, 에너지 인프라 등 필수 실물자산 기업 비중을 높였다고 13F 공시를 근거로 설명한다. 가치주·필수서비스가 상대적으로 유리하다고 본다. 투자자에게는 하락기 동안 현금 흐름을 확보해 저가 매수 기회를 대비하라고 조언한다. 영상은 2022년 12월 시점의 내용이며, 대부분의 대상 자산에 대한 구체적 가격 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
did you know that when Michael Barry correctly predicted the 2008-2009 housing and stock market crash he was harassed by the government and had to pay millions in legal fees to defend himself instead of being recognized for his efforts to warn millions of Americans about the upcoming dangers he was forced to suffer both mentally and financially as a result of the U.S government's suspicions they should have made him their lead Economist this is what Barry had to say about the situation I Saw The Crisis coming why did not the Fed never did any member of Congress any member of government for that matter reach out to me for an open collegial discussion on what went wrong or what could be done rather within two weeks all six of my defunct funds were audited the Congressional financial crisis inquiry commission demanded all my emails and lists of people with whom I had conversed going back to 2003 and a little later the FBI showed up a million in legal and accounting costs and thousands of hours of time wasted all because I asked questions it seemed they would pump me at gunpoint or not at all well today I'm getting the exact same feelings as when this played out in 2008 no one is listening to Michael Barry's warning about what is to come in 2023 the US and global economy are still facing major dangers with the entire world economy teetering on collabs it doesn't matter if all economists agree or not on whether the U.S economy is entering a recession or not but one thing is certain the economy and stock market are currently making no sense at all and are completely disconnected from reality the lack of growth or even negative growth in corporate earnings is making a global recession and potential collapse increasingly more likely even JP Morgan recently warned that the market could fall an additional 20 from its current levels to add to this recently the stock market has been behaving extremely erratically having become highly volatile and unpredictable with some days experiencing sharp declines followed by big rallies the very next day while many people are uncertain about whether the economy is headed for a recession stack inflation hyperinflation or total collapse Dr Michael Barry is once again standing out with his clear-cut prediction for 2023 as a contrarian Michael Barry saw the subprime crisis before anyone else now Barry's arguing that inflation will get even worse in 2023 and erase all market gains made over the past several years the pain we have seen thus far in markets is just the beginning with no end or bottom inside so let's discuss the current situation playing out in the stock market including the reasons for the sell-off and the latest warning from Michael Murray make sure to stick around to the end of the video where we will cover why it is extremely likely Barry is completely correct and inflation will come back much worse in 2023 collapsing markets globally also only a small percentage of my viewers are actually subscribed if you enjoy Finance content consider subscribing or liking the video it's free and you can always change your mind in the current trading environment Michael burry has warned investors to not get their hopes up about any Market rallies in the winter quarter as they are likely to be short-lived and to not ultimately lead to a market recovery a market rally refers to an increase in the stock market of at least five percent during a downtrend during every single bear Market we have seen in the past there has always been at least one rally of at least five percent and rallies of 10 or more are even more common occurring in two-thirds of the 21 bear markets between 1901 and 2015.
now based on the current situation it is clear that history is repeating itself it is also apparent that the deeper the decline the harder the rebound will be for instance in 1929 the Dow Jones rebounded around 48 only then continuing on to full 86 percent before bottoming similarly the.com market crash of the early 2000s also had eight bear Market rallies of 18 including four gains of almost 30 percent but these were all false Market rallies with the market only continuing to go on to continue to drop lower again in the great financial crisis of 2008 9 find bear Market rallies are between 6 and 24 percent were observed before the market went on to bottom after a couple of years speaking on the current bear Market rally Michael burry noted that since the market Peak on December 31st of last year there has been a pattern of falling eight to ten percent followed by a rally of five percent then falling another eight to ten percent then rallying Again by five percent and so on in a tweet Michael Barry warned investors that dead cat bouncers are the most epic and can easily deceive investors into thinking that the bottom is in 12 of the top 20 NASDAQ one day rallies happened during the 78 drop from the 2000s top nine of the top 20 S P 500 one day rallies happened during the 86 drop from the 1929 top he also shares the Dow had 10 bear Market rallies over 10 and averaging 22.8 percent before going on to bottom a further 89 down therefore he's suggesting that investors should not be fooled as it will take some time before hitting the true bottom of the this current downturn historically speaking there has been no bear Market having bottomed without a vix reading of 45 or more recent history has proved this rule as well with the market not bottoming until huge spikes in the vix was observed with readings of 70 in 2008 and then hitting 65 during the covid crash in March of 2020.
in 2022 we have not seen this huge shoot up in the vix or volatility meaning that historically speaking it's very likely we haven't seen the bottom yet to accurately determine the bottom of the stock market Michael burry is keeping an eye on several other indicators he points out that 13 of stocks have closed above their 200-day moving average which is never usually seen at the absolute bottom the bottom typically occurs when the number is closer to five percent at the bottom in 2008 it was 1.2 percent and during the crash in 2020 it was at 2.8 percent therefore according to this metric we are currently still Far From The Bottom the only exception to this rule was the.com crash which was largely limited to high growth text stocks the second indicator Barry points out is there are 218 companies on the stock market with a valuation of over 1 billion that are losing a hundred million dollars per year additionally there are 29 companies with a market cap of 10 billion or more that are losing a hundred million dollars annually these companies include Uber snowflake lucid rivian and Shopify among other dozens of companies Ari points out that before we see the absolute bottom in markets the silliness in terms of sky-high valuations and unprofitable companies has to go if the current trend of previous crashes continues we may see a repetition of the pattern observed in 2008 in which the market did not reach its lowest point for another couple of years now the most horrifying and pernicious reason baru believes the market has not yet bottomed is because he believes we're going to see another huge spike in inflation like we saw in 1929 and the 1940s Bari tweeted inflation appears in spikes when the spike is resolving it won't be because of Biden or power it will be because that is the essence and nature of inflation it resolves fools people and then comes back when it comes back neither the president of the United States nor the Federal Reserve will take credit and the charts back up bury completely they show that since 1940 inflation does not occur once but usually spikes twice before resolving this isn't a trend that hasn't only been spotted by Barry either Tech billionaire and investor chamath polyhapatia has spotted this and spoke on how the sharpest mines on Wall Street are expecting this exact scenario to play out in 2023.
here's this really interesting setup we have a bunch of very positive news that I think we all have to process first positive news was that inflation ticked down now here's what I'll tell you there's a caveat here I talked to a bunch of pretty smart Sharps on Wall Street and oh two things number one is they all gave credit to David Sachs and they said Saks was totally right double dip procession is coming but then they said tell sacks that we think that these are the sharps we think that there's a double hump in inflation coming which means it's coming down to come back up and there's a bunch of reporting vagaries that may cause that so keep that in the back of your mind but positive news number one is inflation ticking down um number two Jason we talked about this a federal judge basically stayed Biden's attempt at giving student loan relief now that would have been a 500 billion dollar transfer payment from the government into the hands of individuals it is deflationary to not put give that money to people it's effectively taking stimulus away from folks number three it looks like we're headed towards a split government which means that we are not probably going to see any more stimulus over the next two years number four uh Ukraine wins and Curzon I hope I'm pronouncing that right number five the United States uh announced yesterday through the Wall Street Journal that they had essentially said no to Ukraine's request for advanced drones and they said to Ukraine essentially you need to go and negotiate an end game here and number six China has started to relax as covet policies and G is pivoting to economy first I think if you take them together what it says is that wow there's there's the potential for a lot of great positive developments over the next six or nine months and I don't think that that was adequately priced in the market but here's the problem and this is what's why we've been rallying the problem is that most of this for Halloween has been because of a bunch of short covering by folks that who were pretty pessimistic and negative after the last few inflation prints so this is not really net new buying that we saw over the last couple days so you take it all together I'm like it's still gonna probably Trend up a little bit but then again you know we talked about this Jason when the vix gets into the low 20s or the High Teens that's probably the short term top and then it turns around and unfortunately we're here yeah the low 20s I teens so that's kind of my thought on things right now however it's not all doom and gloom for investors as this will all culminate in a great opportunity to buy and to add to positions over the course of 2023.
once a bear Market does pivot the average bull market lasts for on average 9.1 years and has an average cumulative Total return of 476 percent The Wall Street Journal recently published an article saying that the current rebound we are witnessing is most likely just a bear Market rally they like Bari observed that since 1990 the biggest rebounds are observed after markets have had their worst Falls Barry Likens the current investing climate to a similar scenario he witnessed play out in 2000 another feeling I'm getting is mid late 2000 free cash flow totally on sale and ignored while former momentum stock are coming down but not far enough and darling better businesses still had a ways to fall value was about to take off for years despite more crash on the way therefore Boris suggesting that boring businesses are the ones that will actually outperform in the short term so this begs the question what is Michael Murray buying and how is he personally positioning his portfolio if he expects his stock market crash to only worsen in 2023 well during times of economic crisis the companies that suffer most are usually those that Society doesn't need in order to function for example companies like Facebook Twitter Amazon snap and Microsoft may be extremely profitable most of the time and provide services that most of us want however they're not exactly services that Society needs as inflation and economic conditions deteriorate in 2023 people spending habits will shift resulting in less money being spent on non-essential goods and services this is why technology companies have been particularly hard hit over the past year or so and have already begun experiencing layoffs with hundreds of thousands of employees being fired but no matter how bad the economy gets there are Services Society will always need to continue to function things like energy infrastructure social services and prisons and in his most recent 13f filing which must be submitted to the SEC quarterly and reveals an Investor's Holdings it was disclosed at Barry's portfolio has been heavily focused on essential services such as prisons and telecom companies currently two-thirds of Barry's total portfolio consists of these real asset companies whereas in the past it was heavily concentrated in non-essential service companies like meta or Cigna it is clear that Barry's significant shift in portfolio is due to his belief that non-essential products and services will continue to decline in value in 2023 while value companies and essential service companies that support the basic functioning of society will become more valuable or at the very least maintain their value obviously this is a simplified explanation of what could be driving Murray's thought process and why technology companies are experiencing such severe losses in value however as a general rule this trend tends to occur during major crashes or recessions when economies start to struggle people tend to reduce their spending which leads to less income for non-essential companies in summary the main focus for investors in 2023 should be on finding ways to increase their income as much as possible in the next 12 to 24 months this way even if the market continues to decline they will have sufficient cash on hand to take advantage of lower prices foreign
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