저자: FábioSouza · 외국인
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결론: 플류리(FLRY3) 헬스케어 기업을 피터 린치 체크리스트로 점검하며 재무 건전성과 현금흐름이 양호하다고 평가하나, 투자 권유가 아닌 학습용 분석이라고 명시함. [기업 개요] 플류리는 의료 진단·검사 중심 기업으로 222개 단위를 8개 주에 두고 있으며, 매출의 약 84%가 의료 부문, 14~15%가 병원 부문에서 발생한다고 설명. [피터 린치 체크리스트 1: 가격 및 PER] 주가 R$24.36, 주당순이익 R$0.94, PER 약 27.70으로 표면상 높아 보이나 동종 6개 기업 중 세 번째로 낮은 수준이라고 평가. [체크리스트 2: 내부자 지분] 경영진·의사 파트너 지분율 약 22.4%로 사업을 신뢰하는 신호로 해석. [체크리스트 3: 이익 성장] 2013년 순이익 6억1114만 레알에서 2019년 3억4700만 레알 수준이라고 제시하며 약 468.71% 성장으로 언급(수치 자체가 자막 오인식 가능성 있음), 설비투자 부담이 적어 배당 여력이 있다고 주장. 고령화에 따른 수요 증가 기대. [체크리스트 4: 재무구조] 순부채/순자산 0.57, 순부채/EBITDA 0.97, 즉시유동성비율 1.108로 부채가 낮고 잘 통제된다고 평가. [체크리스트 5: 현금흐름] 영업현금흐름이 2015년 3억6863만에서 2019년 7억3220만 레알로 증가, 잉여현금흐름 1억8095만 레알 흑자, 재무현금흐름은 부채 상환·배당으로 유출. [리스크·조건] 발표자는 본 분석이 매수·매도 권유가 아니며 학습 목적이라고 강조. 수치 일부는 자막 인식 오류 가능성 있어 원자료 확인 필요. [출연자 전망] 특정 주가 목표가나 향후 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
In March, giving that "it's going to hit" vibe, I'm back, and I hope you're there with your coffee, because I already have mine here for this chat that's worth its weight in gold, actually. My name is Fábio, I'm from Rio de Janeiro, and today's topic is that we're going to analyze Flores, that's right, Fiori, in the healthcare sector, in a more specific way, using Peter Lynch's checklist, from the book "The Peter Lynch Way of Investing." But we have a study here on the channel where we talk about the six categories that allow us to divide the market, right?
So he puts the companies into six different categories: slow growth, moderate growth, fast growth, cyclical, stunner walls, and undervalued sub-markets. We have everything here on the channel talking about these categories, and with that, he has a specific checklist for each of these categories. But the book also says that he has a broader checklist to do a pre-analysis, a filter of these companies to categorize them, and then if he does a more in-depth analysis, and it's exactly this broader checklist that we...
Okay, so we're going to analyze this, folks, and do a checklist of the Fleury products here, okay? So before that, we're going to talk a little more about the master Peter Lynch. Let's talk a little more about one of the leading figures in the American financial market, Peter Lynch. To put it simply, he managed mutual funds.
He was born in 1944 and is now 76 years old. From 1977 to 1990, he achieved a return of approximately one percent per year on the financial market. To give you an idea, that's double the S&P 500 index, the main index of the New York Stock Exchange, in fact. And there's a peculiarity about him: he had more than 700 assets in his investment portfolio.
That's right, more than 700 assets in his investment portfolio. He has degrees in history, psychology, and philosophy from Boston University. He doesn't have a degree in accounting, economics, or finance, okay? And he's well-educated. Today, he's written several books on investing, and one of those books, which we're discussing here, is "Peter Lynch's Way of Investing." We're going to...
One of the checks is written in this book about Fleury, which we were also going to talk a little more about here so we can understand who this company is, right? It's in the healthcare sector. To give you a little more information about Fleury, it operates in the medical segment. It has 222 units spread across eight Brazilian states, and this business model represents 84 percent of its revenue.
It is also present in 25 of the most renowned hospitals in Brazil, which represents 14-15 percent of its revenue. It also operates in laboratories, preventive medicine, and dental diagnostics. Its shareholding structure today is quite diversified in the market. So from now on, we're going to look at some numbers from this company and put our checklist here to work.
Remembering that this is not an indication, right? I'm not able to buy or sell; this exchange of experience is for us to deepen our studies here. This exchange of ideas, which we always say is worth its weight in gold, really. So let's look at some numbers from this great company, Fleury. That time we put Floripa on Peter Lynch's checklist, and then you were Lisa, right?
How? Okay, so you make your checklist, and we're going to talk a little bit here about the internet style of checking these companies. Within this checklist, he considers five points. The first is the price, the profit, the famous P&L (Profit per Share), and the classic P&L. He says we have to analyze if it's high or low in relation to companies in the same segment.
We took six companies, the six largest companies in the same segment as Fleury, which is medicine and diagnostics, to do this analysis. On the day we were putting this checklist into practice, doing a test drive, Fleury's share price was at R$24.36, the earnings per share was R $0.94, which gives us a P&L of R$27.70, and at first glance, it seems high, right?
But to place these six companies within the segment, the third lowest P&L in the segment, in this second indicator of the checklist, he checks the shareholders, directors, and managers, and whether the company itself invests in its own shares, buying and recovering, right? In other words... Investing in the company itself gives it another dimension and, oh, another connotation of commitment for its manager and directors, isn't that right?
Please, his skin is at risk, he's putting his neck on the line. So when we look at this indicator, we arrive at 22.4 percent of the company's shares being in the hands of the managing partners and doctors, which is good news. These are the employees and directors who believe in the business. Item T20 on the checklist talks about profit, right?
And are the profits growing, recurring, and sustainable? So let's see, if you take the year 2013, the theory showed a profit of 611.14 million in that year, and if you take Fiori's profit now in 2019, it showed a profit of 347 million, which corresponds to a growth of 468.71 percent. Now I'll see if these profits are sustainable.
Yes, we have here what grows without much need for capital expenditure, which means a good portion of the profit is left for possible dividend distribution to the three shareholder partners. The company also has a very competitive management within the sector, marked by being an innovative company, which gives high margins, right, due to Fleury's great efficiency in the sector.
And then, regarding market analysis, we have a Brazilian population that is aging, which will generate a moment of demand for the services that Fleury currently offers in the market. The fourth item on Peter Lynch's checklist asks us to look at the balance sheet of companies, in this case, Fleury. He asks about the debts, whether they are healthy, right, controlled, and also how we will classify this debt.
So, let's go. If you take, for example, up to the year 2019, we have an increase in Fleury's net worth of approximately 6.25 percent. If we look at the debts, if I take the net debt and divide it by the net worth, we arrive at the result of 0.57, that is, individually representing 57 percent of the company's net worth.
And if we take the net debt and divide it by the EBITDA, as you prefer, we will arrive at the value of 0.97, that is... 97 percent of the company's cash generation proxy comes from where the company generates its revenue through its core activities. So, there are two kidneys that show that the debts, besides being low, are well controlled.
And how would we classify these debts? We can do it through the immediate liquidity ratio. We can verify this by asking what I did: how liquid a company can be. If Fiori could pay its short-term debts today with the cash it has, then we take the cash, the bank balance, and its investments and divide it by the current liabilities.
This value is greater than one. It's impressive; you wouldn't need to sell anything, it could pay all its short-term debts from current liabilities for a year now, just with its cash. Fiori's immediate liquidity ratio hits 1.108. So, it wouldn't need to sell absolutely anything; it could pay its debts just with its cash.
It's really very difficult for us to find companies that, right? Above that, the last item on Peter Lynch's checklist, he asks us to analyze the cash position and asks for special attention to... The company's cash flow checks if it's generating good cash flow, if it's not burning cash, and if it would weather a crisis well.
So let's answer this: if you take Freeway's operating cash flow in 2015, it was 368.63 million. Now, in 2019, it's 732.2 million. So, a company that generates cash, right? So, the operating cash flow in 2019 was 730.2 million. We said that the investment cash flow left, right? More money left than came in, so the difference is -542.63 million.
So, when you subtract the investment cash flow from the operating cash flow, you arrive at a positive free cash flow of 180.95 million. The financing cash flow is -235.96 million, that is, the financing cash flow, as I already mentioned in the study here on the channel, the bus leaves. Today, money is being used to pay off debt, or the company is paying its debts, or it's paying dividends to partners and shareholders.
Okay, so generally, it's already reducing debt or paying dividends to its shareholders through cash flow from financing. And when we subtract financing cash flow from free cash flow, it's -46.20 billion, meaning more money went out than came in during this period. But when we look at the growth of Fleury's cash flow during this period, we see that this company is generating cash.
Okay, and as we saw in item 4, this company today has an immediate cash flow that would give Fleury complete peace of mind to weather a crisis because it could pay its short-term debts, that is, the 12- month period, with its cash alone, without having to sell any assets. Okay, folks, I hope I've added a lot of value here for you.
I'm going to ask those of you who aren't subscribed to subscribe if you liked it; it's free. Being here with us always gives us a boost, helps us grow and gain visibility. We have content for that, and you who have that... friend, that relative who likes this chat we have here, share our video, they will, I'll come and be a part of this in March, okay?
And now I just hope I got this content out of here and took it to you, I deleted it and leave a big hug, thanks and until the next coffee break, it will vary.
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