저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Tom Lee는 경기 저점 신호와 가치주 순환매가 실제 펀더멘털 회복을 반영한다고 보며, 연말 강세장 지속과 S&P500 3800 수준까지의 상승 여력을 주장한다. 고용·경기 신호: 신규 실업수당청구 등 고용 지표가 예상보다 강하며, 라이브 데이터 업체 Deep Macro가 11월 비농업고용의 대폭 서프라이즈(약 100만 명대)를 예상한다고 언급했다. 노동시장이 생각보다 훨씬 강하다는 판단이다. 가치주 순환매: 성장주 대비 가치주의 압도적 우위가 14년간 이어졌으며, 경기민감주(에피센터 주식)는 올해 대규모 비용 절감으로 사업모델이 리셋되어 영업레버리지가 주가를 끌어올린다고 봤다. 다만 과거 가치주 반등이 여러 차례 헛된 기대로 끝났던 점을 인정하며 신중한 입장이다. 신용시장: 하이일드 채권 스프레드와 변동성, CDX 등이 안정적이어서 신용시장은 파산 증가를 크게 걱정하지 않는다고 해석했다. JP모건 분석을 인용해 부도 사이클은 이미 정점을 지났을 가능성을 제시했으며, 이에 따라 가치주 밸류에이션(멀티플)이 크게 재평가될 수 있고 2020년 고점이 상단이 아니라고 주장했다. 항공·여행주: 여행 관련 기업은 대체재가 없어 팬데믹 이후 수요가 강하게 돌아올 것이라 보며, 단기 실적은 부진하겠지만 6개월~1년 이상 관점의 투자 기회로 봤다. 크루즈, 테마파크, 항공사 등이 해당된다. 델타항공의 예약 둔화와 취소 증가는 단기 우려 요인으로 언급됐다. 단기 시장 전망: 연초 대비 10~15% 상승한 해의 11~12월은 역사적으로 100% 상승했으며 12월 평균 약 3.3% 상승이라는 데이터를 인용했다. 연말 S&P500 3800까지 상승 여력이 있다고 보며, 조정 가능성은 열어두었지만 기관투자자들의 백신 회의론이 오히려 강세를 지지한다고 주장했다. 백신 물류(화이자 온도 요건), 접종 거부 등 리스크도 언급했다. 리스크: 기업부채 부담과 파산 증가, 백신 보급 지연, 단기 조정 가능성이 주요 리스크로 언급됐다.
다듬은 글
tom lee fund stra right now and tom i mean you've been pretty spot on all year in your calls here talk to me about what your expectations are now after we got the unemployment update today when it comes to that jobs report tomorrow um well we uh we work with this uh big data macro research firm called deep macro and they've been calling for a big payrolls beat for november you know something in the million jobs range and i think today's uh jobless claims really seem to support it what they're saying is that the fill rate you know the the speed which jobs are being filled is quite fast so the labor market's probably a lot stronger than we think especially given all the soft lockdowns taking place tom you've of course been highlighting like so many others this rotation that we've been seeing in the markets out of growth into value a lot of that driven by some of the optimism around the vaccine news when you look at some of the data that came out today though what do you think that suggests in terms of how sticky this is you know is this one of those things that that that continues even with the slowing uh momentum at least in the labor market just given the light at the end of the tunnel or you think we could see a bit of a reversal uh it's tricky i mean you know we've kind of had many false dawns in value and i've been fooled many times thinking the rotation's going to happen so i think we all are kind of on rotation watch because it's been 14 years of growth massively massively beating value but there does seem to be uh some real underlying momentum in the economy believe it or not and i think it's it's you know the labor reports sort of evidence of that but i think if it really is going to have traction it's because all these cyclicals which we call epicenter stocks have become turnarounds you know they they had to cut costs so dramatically this year they they've reset their whole business model cost engineering i just think that that operating leverage is it's what's causing these stocks to act so well yeah tom i mean you've been talking about that rotation uh for a while now and we've seen that and then you've kind of pointed it out when you look at the russell value versus the growth indexes there uh you know kind of the the rotation as you've been talking about uh outperformance and rollover that you haven't seen since going back to what 2008 there so i mean there are concerns when i think about the cyclicals and some of those bankruptcy risks that are kind of you could say maybe being overlooked uh maybe using the cruise stocks here as a proxy uh bloomberg was out kind of noting that that companies junk rated companies that are losing money even before paying their interest payments doubled in q3 that number went from 26 to 47 so i mean i guess when we talk about that we know we're going to get back to normal at some point when these vaccines roll out but don't you think that uh the debt burden on some of these cyclical stocks is going to be rather large and weigh on growth once we get back to that normal um yeah i mean we're in a tricky period um because we can either rely on uh you know the contemporaneous data we're seeing like exactly what you're pointing out or we can look at the signal from markets and to me if i if credit markets were telling us something you know spreads are really tight uh the volatility and credit indices are really low and even the cdx you know the defaults credit default swaps are behaving so they're saying that credit investors are not troubled by all the contemporaneous data you're pointing out including rising bankruptcies in fact they might even be saying that we've already peaked in that cycle i mean it's something jp morgan wrote about over the summer that the credit cycle in terms of defaults has probably already peaked and if that's true then the equity investor shouldn't focus on the bankruptcies as much as the fact that credit markets are functioning really well and spreads are tight and that's good for risk premiums so i think multiples are going to go up a lot i i that's one i think i think people would be surprised at is value stocks could get re-rated pretty dramatically and that's why 2020 highs isn't the ceiling for the stocks tom how are you looking at some of these uh travel names that we have seen gain on the back of the vaccine news you look at some of the airlines for example you know we saw a big uptick of course during the thanksgiving weekend but today we get this news from delta also saying there is a bit of slowdown that's happening also cancellations that are picking up as well what do you think of some of those names as an investment in is it worth putting your money behind that in hopes of things ultimately picking up whether that's six months from now or a year from now uh well i i think that a lot of travel businesses don't have long-term substitution uh meaning you know that the corona the pandemic is completely destroyed any ability for us to have normal lives and travel but we have to think of in the post-pandemic world are there going to be competitors to cruises destinations to theme parks to airlines and if the answer is no then these companies simply just have to reignite demand and if if we're talking about a 12-month period where we're in that gray zone where we don't know the that's the opportunity for investors because i don't think there's intermodal substitution for any of these and so that means they're going to come back roaring back at some point with much lower cost models but you're right you're you know we're not buying it for next quarters earnings because they're going to be awful for the next couple quarters yeah and i guess i mean looking past those as you pointed out just a bit ago i mean it does seem like uh investors are looking ahead to that recovery uh but i don't want to look too far ahead we had uh morgan stanley's mike wilson telling bloomberg this morning when stocks look like they could be setting up for a correction at these levels i mean you as i said you've been right all year and kind of calling the levels to watch here earlier this week you were pointing out the data has shown that when you've got year-to-date returns of 10 to 15 generally through november december is 100 percent of the time up averaging about 3.3 returns for the month so i mean when you look ahead here over the next kind of uh months timeline what are your expectations potentially working in a pullback here um i mean i think a pullback could happen i mean i think even this week was a little shaky the start of this week but you know our view is strong markets stay strong so we were strong into december one there's no reason for markets not to finish strong in fact history as you point out really strongly supports that that it's kind of sounds bad to say but 100 of the time december is an up month and so 3 800 is a pretty reasonable level which is a lot of upside from here but i think part of the reason we could do this is in in our clients with institutional investors and portfolio managers we just need a lot of skepticism you know they're skeptical of the vaccine that this is unusual to have a vaccine rolled out so quickly the logistics you know people point out about the temperatures required for the pfizer vaccine or the unwillingness of people to take it and they just think that everyone's too optimistic but when everyone says everyone's too optimistic that means everyone's skeptical
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