저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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결론: 미국 주식시장, 특히 나스닥 중심의 초대형 버블이 이미 붕괴 초입에 들어섰으며 S&P500도 최소 50% 하락 가능성이 있다. 버블 조건 점검: 11년 장기 강세장, 광적 행동, covid 이후 나스닥 2배 이상 상승(평소의 3배 이상 속도) 등 초대형 버블의 전형적 조건이 모두 충족됐다고 진단한다. 투기주 선행 하락: 작년 초부터 가장 투기적인 종목이 먼저 꺾였고, 나스닥 종목의 약 40%가 고점 대비 50% 이상 하락했다. 지수가 오르는 와중에 투기주가 떨어지는 현상은 1929, 1972, 2000년 대붕괴 직전에만 나타난 드문 패턴이라고 설명한다. 지수 전망: 시장이 최소 50% 하락해 고점을 찍을 가능성이 높으며, 투기주는 그보다 더 크게 떨어질 것으로 본다. 다만 하락이 빠를지 느릴지는 불확실하다. 자금 흐름: 경기부양책으로 개인 자금이 저점매수에 대거 투입됐고 기업들도 대체로 양호해, 시장이 금리 상승과 고인플레이션에 천천히 재조정될 수 있다고 본다. 부동산·채권: 전 세계 부동산 가격은 매우 높고 채권 금리는 매우 낮아 채권 가격은 매우 높은 상태다. 인플레이션과 연준: 시장은 인플레이션을 일시적으로 무시하고 있지만, 인플레이션이 주식 밸류에이션(PER)을 가차 없이 짓누를 것이라고 본다. 정부는 정치적으로 인플레이션 억제를 원하므로 연준에 압박을 가할 것이며, 노동 부족과 임금 상승으로 인해 연준은 금리를 상당폭 올려야 할 것으로 예상한다. 미국 외 시장: 미국 외 주식은 대체로 그리 비싸지 않다. 신흥국은 부채 등 문제가 있지만 매우 저렴하며, 저평가 선진국과 신흥국이 미국 주식을 대량 보유하는 것보다 낫다고 조언한다. 투자 조언: 미국 주식을 보유해야 한다면 재무가 탄탄한 고품질 주식을 고르라고 권한다.
다듬은 글
whatever you do get rid of this fear of missing out this terrible lust to participate in profit making that comes along at the end of every one of the great bubbles it is incredibly seductive very hard to resist being there done that myself a few decades ago made a fortune and invite myself out very salutary and I would wish on those of you that you avoid it's crossed off all the boxes it's done all the things that a Super Bubble typically does and it could start its way down anytime and perhaps a month ago it needs a long bull market and we had 11 years so the longest in history it needs a lot of crazy behavior and we had some of the great crazy behavior of all time I think they'll be telling these stories in 20 years it needs to accelerate at the end of a bubble at something like three times the average rate of the the bull market and it did that from covid on outwards the NASDAQ more than doubled and it went up well over three times the normal rate and finally a thing that is unique to the super bubbles the two or three that just keep going and going is that at the end the speculative stocks start to peel off and even on the upside for the broad Market they start to go down and that started early last year the super duper specs the worst of them all started to decline and then one by one they fell in and started to drop and As We Said Today something like 40 of all the NASDAQ stocks are down over 50 which is pretty amazing since it's only the other day the s p was at its all-time high in late December nothing is certain in life but I would say that is the beginning of the Burst when the specs that typically go up quite a lot more than the market okay go down as the market goes up so the s p went up 25 last year and a lot of the most speculative stocks of 2020 were already going down that is very rare it happened in 1929 it happened in 1972 before the very big decline then it happened in 2000 before the tech white about so you're saying we are at the beginning of a crash I would say it is likely that we are I think it would be unlikely that the market would not come down by 50 permits Peak the broad Market the s p and it would be unusual if the specs did not do worse than that the problem is is it's low or is it quick the stimulus program left a lot of money in individual hands for buying the dip and they have been throwing money this year individuals at the depths they have probably probably never invested more rapidly than they have this year and despite that of course the market is down but they have a lot of money they're pretty well funded corporations many corporations are doing well the economy isn't too bad so this could be turned out to be quite a struggle where slowly but surely the market has to readjust to higher and higher rates and higher inflation they will not give up I suspect too easily but we'll fight it out if you look at the real estate market all real estate markets pretty well around the world are very very high and if you look at the bond market of course interest rates are incredibly low and bonds are incredibly high but when it comes to the stock market rather like 2000 and the tech bubble this is more an American Affair than anything else outside America the world is merely overpriced ho hum it's often overpriced but usually not that dangerous in the U.S however we have an extreme overpricing extreme crazy behavior and I think we're in a rather dangerous Equity bubble so there is a decent chance that Australia the UK Japan there's some fairly reasonably priced countries if they come down and sympathy they'll come down a lot less and probably rally earlier this bubble in the U.S is eerily similar to the 2000 Tech bubble it's led by the NASDAQ it was led by the specs 2000 the specs unperformed all year and the s p he continued to climb it is just possible that the s p will rally to a new high I think it is impossible that the spikes will so I think the game has started and it will play out perhaps rather like a 2000.
historically the stock market has hated inflation it crushes price earnings ratios this time uniquely it did not inflation started June of last year roared through the roof and the peas continued to rise nothing like that had happened before we have a model that goes back to 1925 and there are two factors that determine price earnings ratios or the price level of the market one of them is profit margins of course it loves them and the other is inflation of course it hates it and they have worked like a charm and in 2000 you had for example at the top of the market world record profit margins and very little inflation and today we have world record profit margins but we have rather higher inflation the market should have dropped starting in the middle of last year had it been following the normal battle plan it did not the market is saying about inflation that it totally ignores it it comes completely believes the fact that it's a temporary ephemeral Etc and it doesn't appear to be and if that seeps into the market in the usual way it will mercilessly depress the price earnings ratios and In the End the Fed doesn't like to get on the bad side of the administration politically inflation is death the average person in the street notices it measures it if anything exaggerates it but even without exaggeration it's painful and politically very very tough on the voting pattern and therefore the administration really wants to do everything it can to get inflation down so it will be discreetly leaning on the FED to do what it can there are people who spend their entire lives watching the fed and going into the nuances of quarter points and half points and I do not I am confident that they will move at the stronger end of the range I am confident they will try very hard to make sure that inflation does not become embedded I'm also confident that that will be difficult because we're very short of Labor we're running very scarce and wage rates will start to come through the system in the U.S increasingly for the next few months that makes it very difficult to control inflation so it will be quite a struggle and the FED will have to raise the rates quite a bit if you have to own U.S stocks you should earn high quality stocks that are in Good Financial shape because this can always spiral in to something of a financial crisis they often do I would emphasize in general though non-us stocks and quite a few countries as I said are not that bad Emerging Markets has some overhang problems if the US goes and commodities are high priced it's a mixed blessing at best for them but they're very very cheap and in the end cheapness usually trumps everything else so Emerging Markets some of the cheaper developed countries would be very much better idea than a massive holding of U.S equities
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