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for more on the markets let's bring in Ed yardeni uh president of yardeni research Ed good to see you this morning and you have been you've been steadfast I haven't seen you really waffle at all that you've acknowledged we may see some choppiness and and I've seen I've seen some funny things you know some of the strategists that come on the show we I think we had one on recently that was just talking about the chaos chaos chaos and and that there was uh you tariffs and you know Trump inherited this great economy and now there's chaos and we're less we're less than a point off an all-time high on and most of the averages and at all so what it's it's almost as if now it could happen any day valuations are stretched inflation is not put to bed but why are you so sanguin about reaching you know new heights this year to even 7,000 which would be a pretty good move what is that about I what's that between 15 and 20% sure well look it's uh really all about the resilience of the economy it just demonstrated over the past three years that it could withstand a dramatic tightening of monetary policy the federal funds rate went from zero to five and a quarter five and a half percent and uh just about everybody thought that that would cause a recession I didn't think so and uh and now what's interesting is that uh nobody seems to have learned from the experience of the past three years that this economy really is resilient and I think it can take some chaos in policym and and and tariff making and I think by the end of the day anyways I think what this Administration is uh aiming for is what they said not retaliatory tariffs but reciprocal tariffs and what that means is we'll match the tariffs of other countries and then we'll sit down with them after postponing it for 30 days and try to work out lowering of the tariffs so I think that's important I think deregulation is an ongoing phenomenon look at the end of the day it's really all about the resilience of the economy the strength of the economy which means that earnings are going to continue to be strong and that's what I think is driving the market I think that's what's holding up the market right now that's what we need because uh we know that that stretched multiples in the past in and of themselves don't cause the market to come down so correct correct I don't know I don't know whether we get any expansion like some rate cuts to get multiple expansion but even if we're stuck here in the F If the Fed does nothing this year there's no reason to think necessarily that something pops in terms of valuation so if so if you're right about economic conditions and earnings you could get your 15% on the S&P purely from from business uh doing well absolutely and I think uh you productivity has been making a comeback I think it continues to do so and I think the technology Revolution the digital Revolution which really started with IBM mainframes in the 1950s and now has evolved to AI Technologies look some of them are silly and some of them are not going to going to suffer for hallucinations but I think uh the what we're starting to see is a lot of anecdotal evidence that AI Technologies digital technologies have advanced to the point where they make humanoid Robotics and uh self-driving car is a reality here not not years from now but this year next year uh so I think all that put put that all together and you get the market uh looking solidly forward we were talking about this journal piece about signs of froth and maybe some of it is is is in the the retail uh investors I don't know who I don't know who is the consensus or the people I want to bet against sometimes I think it's the pros the pros have no idea sometimes I think it's to bit against them uh sometimes I think re poor retail investors are you know out at the bottom totally in at the top so I I I don't know whether to use this as a contrarian sign or not do you see froth or or just the market uh being at a level that isn't justified by U the underlying fundamentals well I think it goes back to what you said about the valuation multiples there is this reversion to the mean uh Factor where a lot of people believe that once you get well above the mean and everybody seems to take the average of history and the average of history says the mean forward PE should be around 15 and now for the um magnificent 7 it's more like 30 I think it's actually down a couple of points from there from maybe 28 and then for the rest of the market the S&P 493 it's more like 19 uh yeah sure those are stretched relative to 15 but the the key point in evaluation is as you said is how long is this expansion going to last and the past three years demonstrate the resilience of the economy suggesting that there may not be a recession between now and the end of the decade it may turn not to be the Roaring 2020s after all I mean we're halfway through it and so far it certainly looks that way and there's no particular reason not to believe that a recession is going to happen if that's the case then there's plenty of time for earnings to grow and for valuation multiples to become less stretched not because they take a dive on a recession but because uh earnings uh are that are delivered are great if we ever had a six seven eighty year period without a recession that would be unprecedented uh when was the last the 19 the 1990s immediately come to mind I mean we had a long period time we had a very long expansion there and there are a lot of similarities I've been making the similarities between now and the 19 in the 1920s I've been calling it The Roaring 2020s but there are similarities to the 1990s the technology Revolution and uh you know uh I I I think we may actually get some fiscal discipline believe it or not out of all this chaos um very reminiscent of what happened with Clinton Clinton realized that the Bond vigilantes limited what he could do and I think Scott bessent has been telling Trump that uh forget about the FED look at the bond market we need to convince the bond market that our policies are are going to work
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