저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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결론: 그랜섬은 미국 주식시장이 역사적 버블 상태이며 향후 7년간 대부분 자산군이 실질 마이너스 수익을 낼 것으로 봄. 시장 버블 경고: 연준의 과도한 완화, 지속적 부양금 지급, 백신 접종 비용 등으로 주식시장이 '환상'에 빠져 있다고 진단. 1989년 일본, 2000년 닷컴, 2008년 부동산 버블을 맞춘 이력을 강조. 2020년 35% 폭락 후 역사상 가장 빠른 회복이 있었지만 이번 하락은 1987년 기술적 급락과 유사하다고 봄. 버블 지표: 거래량 강세 신호, 신용·마진 지표 사상 고점, 콜옵션 및 장외 페니주식 거래량 최고치 등을 제시. 자산 동시 고평가: 채권·주식·부동산이 동시에 고평가된 것은 1989년 일본 이후 처음이며, 이 강세장은 매우 위험하다고 주장. 일본은 30년이 지나도 1989년 고점을 회복하지 못함. 반론 및 밸류에이션: 성장주 프리미엄 미반영 비판이 있으나 그랜섬은 이를 고려했다고 답변. 다음 아마존 후보 기업들도 지난 1년간 급등해 가치가 낮아졌다고 봄. 기대수익률: GMO는 추적하는 11개 자산군 중 10개에 대해 향후 7년간 인플레 조정 후 마이너스 수익 전망. 미국 대형주 연 -8%, 미국 소형주 연 -8.5% 전망. 그린 자산 선호: 장기 에너지 전환 투자 기회를 강조. 2050년까지 재생에너지 연간 투자 약 2조 달러 추정. 구리·리튬 가격은 현재가 일시적 고점이며 장기 상승 전망. 테슬라는 2020년 3월 저점 대비 200% 상승했으나 전기차 시장은 2002년 아마존과 유사하다며 일부 전기차 기업의 장기 성장을 긍정 평가. 다만 그린에너지 버블 위험도 인정. 가치주·신흥국 선호: 2021년 들어 성장주에서 가치주로 자금 이동, Russell 1000 Value 지수 연초 대비 약 13.5% 상승. JP모건·뱅크오브아메리카 등 은행주 수혜 언급(JPM 약 23%, BAC 약 25%). 신흥국은 연 약 9%(인플레 조정) 성장 전망, 중국·인도·싱가포르 등이 2021년 S&P500 대비 두 배 수익. 구리 17% 상승 등 원자재 강세가 신흥국 수혜 요인. 출연자 전망: 미국 주식 전반 비관, 신흥국·가치주·그린에너지 장기 낙관. 리스크: 버블 붕괴 시 급락 가능성, 그린에너지 섹터 버블 가능성, 밸류에이션 논쟁 존재.
다듬은 글
Robert Jeremy Goltho Grantham is a British investor, co-founder, and chief investment strategist of GMO, which stands for Grantham, Mayo, & van Otterloo. It is a Boston-based asset management firm with more than 118 billion US dollars in assets under its management. Over the years, Grantham had successfully predicted several market crashes.
His predictions were accurate, which is why investors really look up to him. He was able to successfully predict the dot-com bubble and the subprime crisis, and now, he has again made predictions that there is an impending market crash of historic proportions that will probably happen again soon. In this video, we will discuss some of the warning signs of an impending market crash.
We will also talk about how you can protect your money by investing in some assets over the next few years. So stay tuned and make sure to watch this video to the end. This is Financial Intellect, where we promote that to be finance savvy, we are your buddy! Now let’s get right into the video! Market bubble warning signals According to Jeremy Grantham, the stock market is currently experiencing its biggest fantasy trip ever as a result of a mishandled federal reserve, constant release of stimulus checks, and the high costs of vaccination roll-outs.
Grantham is a renowned investor who gained recognition for correctly predicting the asset bubble in Japan in 1989, the tech bubble in 2000, and the real estate bubble in 2008. Just over a year has passed since the most recent stock market meltdown, which saw a severe 35% decline and also the fastest recovery in history.
However, Grantham thinks that the crash of last year differs significantly from the end of a typical bull market. He asserts that the crash is just comparable to the 1987 technical stock market crisis, which saw a quick drop and was followed by a subsequent sharp rise. Grantham has identified numerous indications of bubbles in the market.
These include trading volumes that indicate bullish momentum, various debt and margin measurements that are at peaks, and record-high on-call option and over-the-counter penny stock volumes that are trading at their peaks as well. What's more worrying is that the bond, stock, and real estate markets are all overvalued at the same time, making the present bull run exceptionally risky.
This only happened in 1989 in Japan, where all asset classes were enormously inflated. The economic fallout was severe, and even now, three decades later, stock prices and property values have not recovered to their 1989 peak levels. Many have disputed Grantham's pessimistic market outlook, claiming that he doesn't give growth companies, who have recently entered the market, enough credit.
Although Grantham feels that he has taken these issues into account, values still seem excessive. For instance, he thinks that while many people today deserve their valuations, with the next Amazon just around the corner, the value is lessened because all of these companies have experienced a significant run-up over the past year.
For 10 of the 11 asset classes it tracks, Grantham's investing firm, GMO, has predicted negative returns for the next seven years on an inflation-adjusted basis. The company also anticipates negative returns of 8% in US large-cap equities and 8.5% in US small-cap stocks. Given Grantham’s negative view of US equities, the question now is: what should investors do to protect their money against a market meltdown?
Acquire green stocks Grantham, who is well-known for his work on climate change, has pledged to give more than 98% of his fortune, or about 1 billion dollars, to climate change action and the advancement of green energy. Consequently, GMO now manages a fund that primarily focuses on businesses in the fields of agriculture, forestry, food, and renewable energy.
According to Grantham, investors seeking above-average returns should instead consider investing in green stocks. The current global energy infrastructure has already been developed for over 150 years, which is why it is now very complicated. Thus, he highly recommends transitioning to green energy even though it will initially need a large amount of money and effort.
There is a huge growth prospect and by 2050, researchers even estimate that annual investments in renewable energy will total around $2 trillion dollars. No wonder he is suggesting a transition! Grantham thinks that there are considerable opportunities for value addition in the climate change sector over the next ten years, notwithstanding the sector's existing inefficiency at the moment.
Although Grantham has admitted that there are still risks of a market bubble in green energy companies, he thinks that their potential is still great. Thanks to government assistance and corporate recognition, the rapid adoption of renewable businesses will certainly spur wider consumer interest. And we can expect that it will continue to do so over the next decades.
For instance, the prices of copper and lithium have skyrocketed in the past 12 months. Grantham thinks that the current price for these metals is simply a temporary high. Its prices will continue to rise over the years since in the long run, they will be very scarce commodities that are essential to decarbonizing, leading to even greater prices.
Grantham is also particularly optimistic about the stocks of electric vehicle manufacturers, like Tesla, which has surged by 200% from their March 2020 lows. It is very evident that they have significantly outperformed the general market which is why Grantham asserts that today's electric vehicle market is comparable to Amazon in 2002.
During the dot-com bubble, investors were very enthusiastic about Amazon stock, which caused a major sell-off that initially led Amazon stock to drop by 92% in 2002. However, in the long run, the business finally recovered its highs, and today it is one of the best-performing companies. And Grantham anticipates that a few electric vehicle producers will continue to prosper, grow, and generate large profits in the upcoming ten years.
Refocusing to value Grantham also thinks that some parts of the market will succeed in the future, regardless of how the entire market is performing now. Value stocks and emerging markets are two significant indicators of growth that he has identified, and he anticipates that they will eventually outperform the overall market.
As the market began to place more emphasis on value stocks in 2021 rather than high-growth technology stocks, the result is that the value stocks are now performing well. The Russell 1000 Value Index, for example, is even up 13.5% for the year even though the growth portion is just above zero. After the financial crisis of 2008, a comparable trend where value equities outpaced growth stocks started to develop.
In the banking sector, where J.P. Morgan and Bank of America have profited from the current low-interest-rate environment, value stocks have outperformed growth companies. These banks are now luring in depositors with extremely low short-term rates, lending the money out for longer terms at higher rates, and generating significant value.
The result? Morgan is up 23% for the year while Bank of America is up 25%. Another area where Grantham anticipates outperformance in the next ten years is emerging markets. In comparison to the estimate for the US equity markets, GMO projects that after accounting for inflation, emerging markets will rise at a 9% annual rate.
Despite suffering from the pandemic last year, despite the several lockdowns implemented, emerging markets are already beginning to recover. The vaccines have certainly helped to reopen commerce and economic activities, which accounts for a large portion of this growth. Countries such as China, India, and Singapore have even performed better than the American market.
And in 2021, these markets doubled the returns of the S&P 500, and they are still predicted to continue performing well, totally outperforming the American markets in the next few years and even decades to come. The belief that emerging markets would have strong growth in the future is the main driver of this optimism.
The spike in the price of raw materials and commodities is the main cause of developing markets' short-term outperformance of the global markets. They are the producers or sources of these raw materials and commodities. An excellent illustration of this is copper, which has increased by 17% this year and is still continually rising over the years.
With the increase in its price, countries supplying copper are also benefiting from them. What do you think of Jeffrey Grantham's warning of a forthcoming market crash? Do you agree with him? If yes, what are your methods for investing to beat the market? Post your ideas in the comments section. Let us know in the comment section below.
We’d love to hear your thoughts on this. And with that, thank you very much for watching. If you like what you've watched, stay tuned for more videos! Bye Financial buddies~
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