저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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시장 전체는 지수 상승일 뿐이나 실제 종목 장세는 '대이동' 중이다. Mag7(특히 메타)의 PER이 하락하며 자금이 메모리·스토리지(마이크론, 샌디스크, 시게이트, 웨스턴디지털)로 이동 중. 스토리지 공급 부족은 상당 기간 지속될 수 있어 이들 종목은 단기적으로 더 오를 수 있으나, 고점 형성 후에는 자금이 Mag7로 돌아올 것이라 봄. 엔비디아·애플·알파벳 등 Mag7 보유 유지 권고. 소프트웨어 기업은 AI 대체 우려로 밸류에이션 축소 중. 인텔도 긍정적 평가.
다듬은 글
[ America. I'll be with my put it in context. Call me 1800 743 CBC. Tweet me at Jim Kramer. On the surface, the stock market seems totally binary, dancing to the tune of a president who likes to take the average into his own hands and raise or lower them depending upon the circumstance. When the market's up, outsiders say, "Hey, things must be good." When the market's down, they figure things are terrible.
the house of pain. Now, that may be true if you own just nothing but index funds. That's fine. I I own index funds. Today was another good day for index fund holders. Dow gaining 307 points, S&P advancing 0.55%. NASDAQ climbing 0.91%. [cheering and applause] But what if you're doing what I advise and how to make money in any market?
What if you actually are marrying your index funds like I do with individual stocks because you want to own some high quality companies in order to rack up outsized gains? Consider for me, I've got my uh index funds and then I've got my travel trust. Now, most of you had a chance to own long-term winners like Apple or Amazon or Nvidia.
If you have been even part-time watchers of this 20-year-old show that's been deeply committed to owning these stocks, we created Fang, Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google 13 years ago to get you to buy those stocks. We added Apple to the mix not that long after because we wanted you to own those stocks.
It reasonable believe that you would have bought some of these household names even as many professionals advise you to steer clear of stock picking because they think you're too dumb. I disagree with that. As long as you're disciplined and do the homework, I'm confident you have the ability to trounce the SP500 with your individual stock portfolio.
Just true. What happens though when the great ones, the ones that have worked out so well, what happens when they start running out of gas? What happens when they're running on fumes? What happens when they lose their leadership qualities and get confined to the dust bin of stock history? First, as I said today in what my wife says was kind of a somber investing club meeting, I didn't mean that.
I don't believe that any of the mega cap tech stocks are truly finished, including the magnificent 7, but also sending Dr. Colossus that is Broadcom, which acts really badly. I don't talk about this much on May money, but I think I should. I'm always looking to see if a company's getting its due for how much it earns.
Its due is also uh considered to be the multiple or more clearly the price journey's multiple. If a company's liked in the marketplace, the stock will reflect that by having a higher price during multiple than stocks that are disliked. But if a company goes out of stock if people stop believing it, then the marketplace is a lower price during multiple stock.
Think of it as a shorthand way to look at how a company's fairing. And and it's mystifying to many. So I want to bust that. Let's explain what's going on with the weakness so you understand what's happening with these iconic stocks that everyone used to talk about all the time. It should be obvious right now that the Magnificent 7 and their buddies barri of friends in this market.
Take Meta. People were paying 30 times earnings high, okay, for the stock as recently as a year ago. Now they're paying just 22 times earnings low. That's a sign the market's gotten skeptical of Mark Zuckerberg and the company's growth rate, which is the most important quality to factor in when you're deciding what to pay for stock.
It's a sign that Meta has lost its way. There, I said it. Meta's lost its way. jump today. But Meta's Meta's revaluation, let's call it that, is severe. But the price toearnings ratios of the Mag 7 have been shrinking pretty much across the board, causing lots of people to worry that the boom is off the rose and they have to make adjustments.
I would contend that that's not true. I know that something else could really be at work here, and I figured it out. The seven are known for their consistent high earnings power. Right now, as I said earlier this week, you have real concerns about the earnings power because there's this private company, OpenAI, that's spending fortunes and that's doing it to take share and hurt all these companies.
At the same time, Open AAI does business with a bunch of companies and people are now questioning whether it'll be able to pay its bills. I think it look a open AI is like the open sore. It can really hurt a lot of things. I call it the Achilles heel. But there's another force that I'm not talking about.
This you got to focus on people. This is something I haven't talked about to you. It's a huge part of the story. There's a new group of tech stocks in town and they are sucking up money from the rest of the sector from the seven and these are prosaic boring companies. There's storage plays. I have been talking about the storage place as a warning sign because they've rallied so far so fast.
But there are tons of investors who love to chase hot stocks and if they want to buy a Sandus or a Seagate or a Western Dig or Micro. Wow. the best places. They got TO SELL SOMETHING. THEY DON'T HAVE THE MONEY sitting around. They got to sell something to BE ABLE TO BUY THEM. And you know what they're selling?
They're selling the seven. Consider Micron very good semiconductor company. You know, we talk about them all the time. Makes storage components. Stocks up 39% since the beginning of January. Seagate 26%. Crazy SanDisk is up 112. Crazy SanDisk. And Western Digi's Run up 41%. These companies underinvested for years because there was really no need for massive storage.
this is horrible. We we didn't have the data. We didn't mind the data. We didn't store the data. So, they were absolutely caught flatfooted by the rise of artificial intelligence. They didn't see it coming. The companies that should have been calling up to expand their production, uh they they should have been calling Applied Materials, Lam Search, KLA, they didn't get the call either.
They were woefully behind. Now, we're in this bizarre, neverbeforeseen moment where the storage companies just keep raising price over and over and over again. And there's no resistance because these devices are like gasoline in a car. If oil were scarce and gas prices were high, you wouldn't say, "I'm not going to use it." You'd have to pay at any price.
Why does this matter? Billions of dollars in this country being allocated to individual stocks every single day. There are many different styles of money, man. Some want value, others want solid growth. Still others want companies that can scale, have tremendous franchise value. But the most important style in this country, though, is momentum.
These managers want to buy stocks that have accelerating growth and they want to sell stocks that seem to have slowing growth and are incredibly squeezed in margin. What you're seeing right now is the great transference. For the first time since the creation of the Magnificent 7 back in March of 2023, these stocks have become donors to the market capitalization of these storage companies.
To watch the levitation of a micron or a sandisk every single morning before the market opens is about what's happening. the transference. When I was on the trading desk, I used to say, "These stocks are galloping to where they have to go, and it's certainly not right here. It's higher. Even up here, Micron's not expensive on a price basis, but we don't know how long the memory shortage will last." I think it could last some time.
So, it could be worth buying even up here, you know, if it's down for a day. And that desire, that desire to catch the next hottest stock is driving the money out of the Mag 7 into the memory red hots. Some think that Intel took itself out of the running today after announcing a quarter that was less than expected.
That's wrong. You have to look out. The demand there is insane. I think we haven't heard the last of this stock which is up 40% this year. I think CEO Lip Boutan is a lot lot up his sleeve. Intel be a very hot stock. If you give up on it, I think you're making a big mistake. It's got the MO. Look, it could be worse.
If you own a Salesforce, Service Now, Adobe, Workday, Atlassian, and Simple Team, these are enterprise software companies. You are watching extreme price to earnings multiple shrinkage as nervous holders think the degenerative AI platforms will make these software outlets obsolete like that in seven no enterprise software companies actually missed its estimates this is all in the come all psychological the money's pouring out of enterprise software head right to storage the weakness in storage uh the weakness the weakness in software is happening because the market makes its judgment well ahead of when things actually change I've come not to trust the software companies myself I do believe that outfits like philanthropic will allow you to create rival products for a fraction of the cost.
I've seen it my with my own eyes. No, I'm not going to ban the seven. I own the a lot of them from my travel trust. I do recognize that right now they're donors. But the bottom line, I think that the money will ultimately flow back to most of the seven, not just alphabet, which is the only one that's strong because these companies just have too many levers, too much money.
They're run by people who are too smart to bet against. I'm sticking with the seven. I think the storage plays are going higher. A and when they finally peak, you will be handsomely rewarded if you stay with the seven. If history matters, the commodity disc drive players and commodity semiconductor companies will not stay up by year end.
Rick in Oklahoma. Rick, Jim, thanks. What's your opinion now of Palanteer technology? They're saying I like Palanteer. I mean, I like Palanteer. I'm watching of course the unbelievable work that our team is doing over in Davos and over and over and over again. What do you hear? Well, Palanteer is great.
Palanteer is great. Palanteer is great. I would not leave Palanteer. I know it's momentum. It's not going away. But it's the Saturn that I like. And the disc drive, the storage, the Seagate, the Sandis, the Micron. It's their turn. It's their time. They got all the money coming in. But don't overstay your darn welcome.
I think money will eventually flow back to the seven cuz these companies just have too much going for them and I wouldn't bet against them for too long. Many tonight shares apart from gamble popped today after reporting earnings. I'm running through the numbers to see if there's more upside in store for this household name.
3M pulled back following earnings breaking down what to make of the turnaround story and I think you should buy it. That's a little preview. and the rise of prediction markets is triggering to sell off in shares of sport radar. I'm going to sit down with the co see about what all the concerns about. I need you to stay with the seven and stay with Kramer. >&g .
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