Cathie Wood - Massive Opportunity Ahead For Everyone | Invest Now

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결론: 파괴적 혁신이 폭발 직전이며 장기적으로 벤치마크 지수에 투자하면 뒤처진다는 주장. [혁신 전망] 블록체인과 인공지능의 융합이 폭발적 반응을 일으킬 것으로 봄. 5개 플랫폼·14개 기술이 S커브 성장 구간에 진입 중이며 상호 융합으로 성장이 가속된다고 주장. [투자 철학] ARK는 상향식(top-down)으로 시장 규모를 추정하고 라이트의 법칙(누적 생산량 기준 비용 하락)을 핵심 분석틀로 사용. 무어의 법칙보다 최근 반도체 분야에서 더 잘 맞았다고 주장. [시장 규모 수치] 2019년 파괴적 혁신 관련 시가총액은 약 7조 달러(글로벌 공개주식의 10% 미만), 2020년 약 14조 달러로 두 배 증가. 향후 5~10년 내 100조 달러 이상으로 확대될 것으로 전망. [전기차] 2020년 전기차 판매 약 220만 대에서 5년 내 약 4,000만 대(글로벌 자동차 판매의 거의 절반)로 증가 전망. 비용 하락 속도가 빨라 기존 모델이 이를 반영하지 못한다고 주장. [리스크] 파괴적 혁신 승자 상승분 못지않게 전통 벤치마크 지수 구성 기업들이 혼란·탈중개화되어 하락 위험이 있다고 언급. [투자 기간·시장 인식] 대부분 투자자는 1년~18개월 시계이나 ARK는 5년 시계로 접근. 투자자들이 테크 버블(닷컴)과 2008년 금융위기 이후 혁신·고밸류에이션에 알레르기 반응을 보인다고 진단. [기관 vs 리테일] 기관은 과거 지향적 지수 투자에 머물고 있고, 리테일이 미래 지향적으로 기관을 따라잡을 기회가 있다고 주장. ARK는 리테일 선호, 기관 존중이 점차 커지는 중이라고 평가. [비판에 대한 입장] 비판자(반캐시우드 ETF 등)는 ARK를 '비수익 기술주'로 부르지만, 본인은 이에 개의치 않는다고 응답. 기존 금융권 경영진은 테크 버블·2008년 이후 고정수익 출신이 많아 벤치마크 민감도가 높다고 설명. ARK는 모델을 무료 공개해 교육하고 있으며, 자신들이 옳다면 벤치마크 추종자들이 일자리를 잃을 것이라고 주장.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. oh my goodness uh we are on the threshold of uh an explosion in innovation and crypto is symptomatic of it uh the seeds for what is about to happen were planted during the 20 years that ended with the tekken telecom bubble those seeds have been gestating for 20 to 25 years sometimes 30 years and are now beginning to blossom and that's not even the right word they're they're they are exploding into into existence so we think there are five major platforms 14 different technologies that are all getting ready to move into the sweet spot of their s curves and there are going to be convergences between and among these technologies so you're going to have one s curve feeding another feeding another and creating explosive energy and explosive growth and i think in the in the crypto space uh we're going to see blockchain technology and artificial intelligence converge and cause explosive reactions so it's it's pretty exciting uh just to get back to um investing in the future when i when i uh was trying to explain to someone what i wanted to do before starting arc uh and who's not in our business he said to me oh you mean that in that the future of investing is investing in the future and i said you got it well now when i started in the business that's the only that's the only way people thought about investing and then we went through the tekken telecom bust and then the 0809 meltdown and we ended up with huge risk aversion in the markets and a a tendency to invest very much like the broad-based indices out there in other words not adding much more value than the indices themselves and the indices are where they are because of what has happened historically the largest companies the most heavily weighted companies in these indices are there because of their past success but if we're right and all of this disruptive innovation is about to explode while they are in harm's way yes well this uh chart uh was uh was drawn by uh brett winton or developed by brett winton uh who's our director of research and uh he was working with academic literature to try and understand uh what would be the productivity or the impact on productivity of the combination of these uh uh platforms uh and what what he's depicting here is the productivity uplift is going to be unlike anything we've ever seen we've only had we've had multiple platforms evolving at the same time only once before and that was in the early 1900s telephone automobile and electricity and uh that that world uh there was a that that was the technologically enabled innovation of the time and transformed our world completely let me put some numbers on where we are now in 2019 when we did this chart uh we um we uh evaluated the market cap around the world associated with truly transformative uh innovation that was that year it was seven trillion dollars so it was less than 10 of the global equity market cap that's public equity uh the next year last year that doubled to 14 trillion and we did have a very good year last year we believe that in the next five to ten years that number is going to north of 100 trillion dollars but what what we're not saying when we do so that's the upside uh the downside will be in the broad-based benchmarks which have uh been beneficiaries of the traditional world order and are now going to be disrupted and disintermediated so in order to summarize this section about like this explosive innovation what what is the current market holding true that you think the market is fundamentally wrong about uh i think um the pace of innovation and the convergence uh between and among these platforms most investors have never seen exponential growth well they they recall seeing it once it was during the tekken telecom bubble and that ended badly and that's why there's been this allergic reaction to innovation and high valuations most investors have a one-year time horizon maybe 18 months we have a five-year investment time horizon the early years of exponential growth when we're at low numbers in terms of the base the numbers don't look that much different from linear growth but when you go out five years the difference between exponential so revenue growth rates in the 25 to 50 percent range per year and uh and let's say gdp growth which might be five percent at best night and day uh and i think what gives us the differentiation is our starting point we start from the top down trying to size markets and we center our research on something called wright's law wright's law is a relative of moore's law moore's law is a function of time wright's law is a function of units and uh and actually wright's law has worked better in the semiconductor industry than moore's law itself during the last few years and so that's how we get to numbers like um the electric vehicle space 2.2 million last year but the costs are dropping to such an extent now that we think that number is going to 40 million almost half of the global cars sold in five years actually more like four years now no one has that kind of accelerated growth in their models they've never seen it before so they're not modeling it in the future but wright's law is a very good guide just just to hop in and emphasize this point because i'm sure yasin and i both have built these these right law rights law models um kathy's saying like as you increase the units of production there's a certain cost decline curve to that technology um and so that's a lot of arc's work of being able to predict out five ten years what are the costs of these things going to be based on the the units produced um there's this other thing that was coming to my mind as kathy was talking and elon musk has this line of fate loves irony which always messes up my head but when i think about how backward looking a lot of traditional finance has become that comes at the same time and the backwards looking is as kathy's saying focusing on indices and investing based on the past that's happening at the same time that the world is changing at an accelerating rate and so there is this this tragic irony that people are more and more backwards looking in their investing at least institutions are while you know the opportunity is getting larger and larger in the future and i think that what what's great about that actually is it opens up a space for retail um and you know arc is predominantly i think retail favored with growing institutional respect and i think that will only grow over time but the opportunity is really for retail to catch up to institutions you guys say front run the opportunity but it's just retail being future looking while the institutions are backwards looking there's lots of people who are willing to um you know trash what you're doing and kathy you have some haters too there's an anti-kathy wood etf out there i've heard critics call what you're doing unprofitable tech that's what they call your sector um our friend from real vision raul paul uh was just on recently and he says part of this is because people are fundamentally afraid of change is there something to that why do you think there are like the haters of the world um disparaging the work that you're doing and kind of your method um actually i feel very comfortable when when i'm in that kind of situation if everybody loved what we were doing and were and were and and they were chasing it uh i'd feel much less comfortable so i'm kind of used to it i've faced it actually inside the traditional world as well as i became an odder and otter duck and my counterparts were becoming more benchmark sensitive so you know it was kind of seemed like to them at least uh rebellious uh so are they afraid of change um i think there's muscle memory associated certainly at the high level management associated with the tekken telecom bubble and many equity uh uh leaders went down and uh basically ceded power to the fixed income uh market so many of the leaders of financial firms came out of the fixed income world uh because of the tech and telecom bust many equity uh leaders lost their jobs then and then again 0809 and so you have this very conservative group of people who really uh haven't managed equities ever and and actually understand more benchmark sensitivity since that's how that work world's world works um and i i suppose this just seems like again an odd duck running around uh with her head cut off you know uh they they're not willing to look at the kind of research we're doing which we provide freely out there in fact we provide our uh tesla model right and and to help to educate people saying look we've done the research that supports these numbers and i think the biggest surprise to me is that giving the research away spoon feeding them with the models has has not changed much uh but i think it will change we we're just gonna keep if we're right if we are right uh then those who are wedded to benchmarks are going to lose their jobs you