Investing in China and Alibaba Stock - Charlie Munger - Baba Stock

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멍거는 중국 투자 위험에 대해 '미중 관계가 나빠지는 것은 어리석은 일이며 친구가 되어야 한다'는 입장을 밝힘. 멍거는 중국 정부의 정치적 압박이 자본가들에게 위협이 되는 것은 인정하지만, 중국 투자 리스크에 대해 크게 우려하지 않는다고 답함. 다른 투자자(Gunlock 등)가 중국 투자를 꺼리는 것도 이해한다고 언급. 근거로는 중국이 거대한 인구와 지난 30년간의 급격한 현대화를 이뤘다는 점, 그리고 미국보다 기업 강도 대비 주가가 낮아 달러당 더 많은 가치를 얻을 수 있다는 점을 제시. 세쿼이아 등 미국 주요 벤처캐피털도 같은 판단을 했다고 언급. 알리바바 관련해서는 알리바바가 아마존 대비 PER 기준 약 3분의 1 수준으로 크게 할인된 가격에 거래되고 있다고 설명. 다만 알리바바 보유는 직접 소유가 아닌 파생적 성격(VIE 구조)이라는 점을 인정. 중국 기업에 대한 규제·인권·대만 리스크 질문에는 '문명국가 간 상호 존중이 있다면 그 리스크는 크지 않다'고 답함. 버핏이 알리바바를 보유하지 않는 이유에 대해서는 각자 편안하게 느끼는 투자처가 다르다고 답변. 알리바바는 애플·알파벳만큼 견고하지 않으며, 인터넷 사업은 대형 소매업체라도 경쟁이 치열할 것이라는 견해를 밝힘. 전반적으로 멍거는 중국 투자에 대해 긍정적·낙관적 입장을 취하면서도, 정치 리스크 존재는 인정하는 태도를 보임. 특정 종목(알리바바)에 대한 1~3개월 단기 가격 방향 예측은 없고, 장기적 관점의 견해만 제시됨.

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01. although the financial seems strong do the political pressures from the chinese government worry you at all well the chinese government is worrying all the capitalists in the world way more than it used to and of course we don't like that and we wish that china and the united states got along better charlie munger on investing in china and alibaba stock if you stop to think about it i think how massively stupid both china and the united states have been to allow the existing tensions to arise what bad is ever going to happen that china or the united states if if we two are close if we make good friends out of the chinese and vice versa who in the hell is ever going to bother us of course we should make friends with china and of course we should learn to get along with people who have a different system of government january jeff gunlock was quoted china is an investable in my opinion at this point i've never invested in china long or short why is that i don't trust the data i don't trust the relationship between the united states and china anymore i think that investments in china could be confiscated i think there's a risk of that in quote obviously with a significant percentage of the daily journals marketable securities invested in byd and alibaba you feel differently please explain why well of course only the future knows who's going to be right but china is a big modern nation it's got this huge population and this huge modernity that's come in the last 30 years and we invested some money in china because we could get more value in terms of the strength of the enterprise and the price of the security than we could get in the united states other people including sequoia the leading venture capital firm in the united states have made the same decision we have but i'm sympathetic to gun lager he's nervous he doesn't have to join us different different folks have different opinions got a lot of questions just about the investing in china risks and i'll ask this one from ravi neda he says it's becoming quite evident that chinese companies could be banned from doing business in the western world or maybe some of the eastern countries too because of the number of the following reasons won the security threat issues to the potential conflict over taiwan three inability to meet western accounting standards and number four human rights issues considering all the risks mentioned above why would anyone as smart as munger or buffett consider investing in china or any of the chinese companies well we did a very very simple reason we got more strengths per dollar invested in china this the companies we invest in are stronger relative to their competition and priced lower that's why we're in china alibaba does that actually give us legal ownership of that business or do we have a variable interest in is that the same net what do we own i did get a series of questions related to that same sort of thought when you buy alibaba you do get a sort of a derivative but assuming there's a reasonable honor among civilized nations that risk doesn't seem all that big to me alibaba is a top three holding for you it sells at a steep discount to its u.s peers best comparable as amazon which is triple alibaba is p e so what discount should u.s investors seek when buying chinese stocks considering the political regulatory and especially the ownership structure risk oh and considering the fortune berkshire made on your byd suggestion why doesn't buffer by alibaba warren like many other intelligent people likes to invest where he's personally comfortable and for some reason i'm more comfortable with the chinese than he is that's a minor difference but i have all kinds of places where i'm just like war and i have all kinds of things where i'm not comfortable and i just don't go near them i think an old guy is entitled to invest where he wants to invest in what makes you uncomfortable what do you know it's okay to have some things but you just don't want to bother with i don't think alibaba is as entrenched as something like apple an alphabet i think the internet is going to be a very competitive place even if you're big internet retailer thank you for watching video please like and subscribe grow up youtube channel and follow us on social media