저자: MichaelKaiser · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 마이클 배리가 S&P500·나스닥에 대규모 베팅했지만, 발언자는 파동 구조상 상승 추세가 아직 유효하며 지수가 4차 파동 조정 후 재상승할 가능성이 더 크다고 봄. 배리 관련 배경: 배리는 약 16억 달러 규모로 미국 주식시장 하락에 베팅 중이며, 2009년 주택시장 위기 예측으로 400% 이상 수익을 냈다고 소개됨. S&P500 기술적 분석: 지난해 조정 이후 강한 반등이 나왔고, 조정 목표치 3186을 못 채우고 상승 전환. 강한 시장에서는 조정파동이 짧아지는 경우가 흔하다고 설명. S&P500 파동 시나리오: 현재 4파동 진행 중으로 봄. 1파동 고점 4195.44를 하향 이탈하면 상승 파동이 무효화되어 3186~2700 방향으로 급락할 수 있다고 경고. 기본 시나리오는 4파동이 최대 4253.14까지 나온 뒤 재상승. S&P500 상방 조건: 5262 상향 돌파 시 하락 시나리오 배제. 추가 중간 조정(약 4500~4200 구간)이 나오면 ETF 매수 기회로 언급. 나스닥 분석: 4파동 진행 중으로 보며 목표 조정치는 14431.50. 더 높은 3파동이 이미 나왔다면 4파동이 더 깊어질 수 있음. 1파동 고점 12949.75 이탈 시 상승 파동 무효, 8700까지 하락 가능성 언급. 다만 발언자는 나스닥 하락 가능성을 S&P500보다 낮게 봄. 시장 구조 관점: 지수와 개별 종목의 괴리가 커졌고, 일부 대형주는 여전히 대조정 중이며 일부는 조정을 끝내고 소폭 조정 중이라 선별 매매와 타이밍이 중요하다고 강조. 향후 몇 주~몇 달 내 기회가 생길 것으로 전망. 리스크: 1파동 고점 하향 이탈 시 급락 시나리오가 현실화될 수 있다고 명시.
다듬은 글
Welcome to this video. Is the US stock market about to crash? Why are we asking this question now? Michael Berry, a US hedge fund manager, is currently betting over $1.6 billion against the US stock market, specifically against the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. That alone might not be such exciting news, or even worth a video, if Michael Berry were n't a celebrity in the stock market.
Michael Berry made over 400% profit in 2009 because he predicted the crisis in time. Michael Berry analyzed the housing market, determined that it was overheated, and then placed a bet against the market, which he won. And now, the very same Michael Berry is saving the US stock market again. So, the question naturally arises: Is the US stock market about to crash or not?
We'll look at the technical analysis. We'll look at the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. We'll now examine exactly which criteria must be met for Michael Berry to be proven right, and which criteria must be met in the The converse is true: he is wrong, and the stock market, or more precisely, these two indices, can remain in an upward trend.
Let's start with the S&P 500. This is the two-day chart of the S&P 500. Each chart represents two days, giving a slightly broader overview, but it's sufficient for us to discuss the essential points here. What we see here is, first of all, the strong correction that characterized the last year. What now speaks in favor of Michael Berry's thesis that the S&P 500 is still within the correction and needs a final downward move?
The correction hasn't quite followed an ideal pattern, one has to say. It missed the actual target of 3186 points. The price turned upwards earlier and has since made a strong upward move this year. However, that alone wouldn't be a criterion for us to assume that the correction isn't over yet. Why?
In strong markets, in strong bullish markets, it's not uncommon for corrective waves not to follow the correct pattern in the sense that they don't reach ideal levels, but are very often shortened. This is even their An indication that the market is significantly stronger and that it can reach much higher levels in the future is that the market has recovered very well.
This structure, which is actually the most important thing for us, does n't look like a correction but rather like a foundation that the market has laid to further build an upward impulse structure. However, and this is a crucial point, Michael Berry sees something very important here: impulse structures, or upward movements, are primarily characterized by being five-part.
These are five waves that represent a complete impulse, and these impulses, these wave ratios, must first occur in the correct proportions, so to speak, and certain criteria must be met. For example, a fourth wave, like the one the market is currently developing, must not fall below the high of the corresponding first wave.
And that is precisely the problem here in this index at the moment. As I said, we are currently most likely in this fourth wave. If the market now touches this high, this first wave, which is at 4195.44 points, and this level is broken to the downside, then... If this upward movement is no longer possible, then it 's technically dead.
This means the market will indeed enter a final downward move, as Michael Barry currently sees it, which would then bring us back down to the 3186 to 2700 point level. However, it must be said that this is a real danger at the moment. We expect, however, that based on the structure the index has developed here, it 's more realistic that it can maintain this upward movement, that it will complete wave 4 at a maximum of 4253.14 points and continue upwards from there.
If that's the case, then the scenario that the market will have to fall again is still possible. It's possible that another wave, a corrective wave, will actually develop here. Only above 5262 points is this scenario absolutely no longer possible. This is very important to note. Nevertheless, we would assume that if the market turns here and develops another upward movement, it becomes very unlikely that we will then have to deal with another correction.
We will most likely fall below this level. That's a bit unfortunate, of course. We've already prepared, basically, based on the current information in the report, which of course isn't complete yet. Only when we see, for example, this low, can we calculate it more precisely next week using this red box, and we'll adjust the box accordingly.
But normally, markets adhere relatively closely to this pre-calculation; it's just a matter of a few details, and we can say something here. If this happens, we'll see another similar intermediate correction. We're dealing with two nested impulses here, meaning we have 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Then we have the three from this 1, 2.
That means we have another quarter wave coming back. If it plays out ideally, it will land roughly here in our purple box, between 4,500, 52, and 400 points, and then enter a final upward movement that will most likely break out above 5,262, 60 points, specifically in this red box between 5,500 and 6,100 points.
That's an ideal, typical scenario. It would be very nice if that were to happen, because then the market would actually enter a stronger correction phase and try to reach at least 4200 points again, and that would be very exciting for us because it would then be a buy signal for us to buy, for example, an ETF.
Of course, we also have to consider that this second wave could also go lower. Now it's crucial that the current movement doesn't fall below 4195.44 points and that the market completes this upward impulse. Then Michael Berry will be wrong; if the 4195.144 points are breached, he will be proven right.
Then we will have to accept that this index will slide sharply downwards again, as mentioned, below 3186 to 2700 and 5. So now let's look at the Nasda. Let's first look at the detailed chart of Nasda. This is important because in the details, the indices can actually differ significantly, even if they appear very synchronized in the big picture.
Now let's look at the four-hour chart. Each chart period represents four hours. What we see here is essentially the same as with the S&P 500. We think the Nasdaq is currently in wave 4. Ideally, it has already completed this wave within our purple box, but most likely not yet. We assume it still needs some room to move down.
The ideal target of this correction, this intermediate correction, would be at 14,431.50 points, and from there, the final cascade would begin. However—and this is crucial—it's quite possible that we've already completed a higher wave, a higher wave 3. Therefore, the corresponding wave 4 would need significantly more room to move down.
This would be the case if this level within our purple box were breached. It would n't necessarily indicate that the index is entering a massive correction, but merely that wave 4 needs more space to move up to a higher wave level, ideally to 13,934 points, and from there, it can continue its upward move.
Let's see what else we can expect. The overarching chart is important because, in principle, it's the same as with the S&P 500. There is a certain difference, namely that if we have an ongoing upward movement, an impulse movement, and it's to be sustained, then a certain level must not be breached within this upward movement.
With the S&P 500, as shown previously, this was the high of level one. With the Nasda, this high of level one is crucial because we can still extend wave 4 of the associated 12. Then we can say that if the 12,949.75 points are breached, then this ongoing upward movement is dead, just like with the S&P 500 at 500, as described.
And then we would have to prepare for this index to correct sharply downwards again, down to 8,700 points. As I said, we consider this highly unlikely; in fact, it's even less likely than with the S&P 500. This has structural reasons, as just shown, but also the reason that this wave 4. Here, an ideal level has actually been reached; it wasn't shortened like the S&P 500, but actually tested the ideal point twice and then moved upwards from there.
Furthermore, we have increasingly observed, especially in the last 10 to 15 years, that the markets have become more heterogeneous. What was still possible 50 years ago—for example, drawing conclusions about individual stocks from the index, and vice versa—has become very dangerous today because the markets are diverging significantly.
In our analysis portfolio, we have a very good overview of a great many stocks, and we can actually see that some, even big names, are still stuck in major, overarching corrections and probably need even deeper lows, whereas other stocks have long since completed their major corrections and are now only extending minor corrections, which we can use as opportunities to enter these markets in a calculated manner and thus achieve profits on the upside.
What has become more important in recent years? Clear portfolio management, making good selections, and timing has become very important—more important than ever. And currently, we are in a very, very important market phase where As the market separates from the wheat, many opportunities will arise in the coming weeks and months.
If you'd like to learn more about our work, if you want more detailed and frequent analyses, you can find them on our website: www.libertmarkets.de. You're very welcome to visit and learn more about us there. We'd be happy if you liked the video and would appreciate a like. Even more so if you subscribe to this channel.
This video is from Libert Stock Market. My name is Michael Kaiser. Thank you for your attention. Until next time, bye.
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