저자: LucidStockAnalysis채널진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
1월 26주차 전망: 연준 금리결정·파월 발언, 트럼프의 캐나다 100% 관세 위협(루시드 마진 타격), 1월 31일 정부 셧다운 우려 등 매크로 변동성 부각. 루시드는 숏 비중 35.74%·SCTR 등 숏 과열 신호, 1082 10일선 위 유지 여부와 1031·941 지지선 주시. 장기적으로 중형차 출시 실행력이 핵심. 짐 크레이머 약세 발언은 역발상 신호로 해석. 패트리온 유료 신호 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
What's going on? Welcome back to the channel. Today we're going to talk to you about Lucid. I want to go over some expectations for this upcoming week, what might cause volatility in the stock price, and go over everything else you need to know. But first, make sure to hit that thumbs up. And with that, let's get right to it.
So, starting off with data. On Monday, we have durable goods as well as Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index. Not really that big of market movers, but we are also going to be digesting what has come out over the weekend. So, I'll kind of talk on that in a second. Tuesday we have ADP as well as consumer confidence.
In the past both have really moved the broader market. So we'll kind of have to wait and see for that. Wednesday is a big deal and that is because of the Fed interest rate decision. It is fair to assume that we are not going to be getting a cut and I think that was kind of the writing on the wall for the last several weeks.
But what Powell says afterwards that is going to really shake the broader market. So in general, I think the market's now assuming a March cut is realistic. And so again, if Powell comes out and says a lot of the data points are blah blah blah, like justifying of potentially a cut for March, then the market's going to get euphoria.
So that's going to be a big deal. A lot of volatility. Thursday, we do have initial jobless claims, some manufacturing data, and then on Friday, we have PPI and a couple Fed speakers. So definitely a lot of big things that could uh really move the broader market as well a lot of big companies putting out their earnings.
So we have Microsoft, Meta, Tesla. So of course whatever happens to Tesla good, bad and the ugly typically does trickle down to other EVs. Uh with exception of I feel like last earnings that's where both Rivian and Lucid kind of had a mind of their own. So whatever happened to Tesla didn't really trickle down to them.
But historically speaking, I think it needs to be said that obviously whatever happens to one kind of gets affects the others. So don't be surprised if Lucid kind of moves uh freely or kind of in sync with Tesla earnings. We also do have Apple, Mastercard, Visa, SoFi, MX, a lot of big companies putting out their earnings and what they give for future guidance that is going to really kind of impact the broader market.
There's also a couple things. So, starting off, like I said, on Monday, the market is going to be digesting what has come out over the weekend, and that was this right here. So, Trump said if Canada makes a deal with China, it will immediately be hit with a 100% tariff against all Canadian goods and products coming into the States.
So, uh this is something that Lucid has actually stated is very impactful to their margins. I know they're really focusing on app 2. So, they're doing the right thing right now, but that isn't instantaneous. And a lot of their other deals that they kind of mentioned uh over the last several months about kind of moving to Alaska and doing it within the states, those won't really come to a fruition for another 6 plus months.
It just those types of deals just don't pop up, right? So, ultimately, Lucid is going to be impacted by this. So, the broader market doesn't like this type of stuff. So, we'll have to kind of wait and see. Unless somehow Canada does go back and tells China to f off, but given everything in the PM of Canada, his recent comments, it is fair to assume that they probably won't.
So, Mark is going to be digesting this. And actually, as soon as I saw this, I instantly thought of Trump because when that deal was made initially, he actually endorsed it. He said, "Yeah, good stuff." Like good stuff for Canada. So very interesting in the span of almost two weeks how he did switch up and was originally optimistic and then goes to pretty much against Canada for that.
So market's going to be digesting that and then over and above that in the second half of the week most likely the market is going to be digesting this. So potentially another government shutdown. Uh that one will be pretty much kicking in January the 31st. So the writing has been on the wall. This obviously we knew this several months ago.
Um possibly this could be one attributing factor why we've been seeing rather low volume. On a side note, but definitely a lot of big things coming out this week and not all of them are that positive. Specific to Lucid though, there was these two that are listed for the upcoming events. So this one will be at the tail end of this week.
So, the Philly Auto Show and this week looks like they are going to be at the DC Auto Show. So, hopefully we see some pretty good posts on social media. This in among itself, I don't really see that being that crazy of a catalyst in my opinion. Uh Nick did post this, so worthwhile to note that he did spend some time in our prototype build area today watching the first Lucid midsize vehicles come together.
So, Lucid is preparing and based on the news that came out a couple days prior about them pivoting from China to now Saudi for the magnets goes to show that they are truly preparing for mass scale. So, this is something that needs to be flawless. They cannot have any issues, no supply chain issues for the midsize at all.
If so, like there's only so much the market can forgive. So if they mess up on the midsize like they need to just pack up, shop and that's pretty much it. So good to see at least they are preparing uh behind the scenes. So definitely good stuff for that. One positive thing for this week is this right here.
So Jim Kramer kind of got a question about Lucid and I'm just going to quickly play this mute myself and then you guys can uh kind of listen in. I so I bought shares of Lucid Group um back in 2021 and I am deep in the reds. So with the company, take the loss. Take the loss. Take the loss. I mean, look, Rivian is at 16.
Uh if you like this new, if you like that, Rivian is better. I don't, but that's the one you want to be in. And by the way, can I just say Morio's unbelievable gets no credit whatsoever. That seems wrong to me. Mike, so yeah. Um kind of funny stuff. Uh although getting in 2021 like that probably was poor timing in general.
So um yeah, it is what it is. So um I don't know if him being bearish is the absolute blessing in disguise that Lucid does need to really move higher because of course whatever he says kind of the inverse does happen. So don't be surprised if Lucid kind of just moves higher. Regarding shorts, so going into this upcoming week, 35.74% of the free floats being shorted works out to be 46.5 million shares overall being shorted.
DTC 5.66 days. So it really does signal that shorts are extremely overextended. Cost to borrow has dropped as well a lot. So 32.08% that is an annual rate, not a daily rate. And then short score is 86.28. From a bull standpoint, you see a consensus for it to be roughly around 1150 to 12. So, not that much optimism is on the table.
Bears are anticipating for it to be sub 111 and it seems very much oriented towards that way. So, let me know your viewpoint on that. With it at 11:06, it is trading between this pivot and this S1. So, 10:31 and 1176 that is going to be the next strong support and target. if we do get some good data and let's say things with Canada don't really escalate could see a nice recovery back to that 1176.
Um but flip side given all the shutdown news and a lot of the negativity could easily see that 1031 being retested on a side note. So just watch for that and if that does fail to hold then 941. Aside from all that fun stuff, quickly back over here on the actual chart, uh, luckily enough, because of the recent couple days, it did get above that 10day moving average and is still holding above that.
So, that's going to be a very big deal for a lot of kind of momentum plays. So, that is sitting at 1082. So, just watch for that to hold in the first little bit. And best case scenario, Lucid somehow is able to muster up the strength to really push higher and get above that 50-day moving average and historically usually causes like a 30% swing.
So, you could see maybe that 14 $15 range uh sooner rather than later. But that is most likely as well where shorts will double and triple down. So, even though we're pretty much at all-time high short interest numbers, um there is a lot more available shares that they could easily kind of double down on.
So, and because of the recent price action, you see stoastic RSI at 82. So, that arguably is overbought as crazy as that sounds. So, let me know your thoughts on Lucid. In my opinion, it is going to be at the mercy of the broader market and unfortunately there's a lot of negative things that that is coming out.
So, even though Jim Kramer is bearish, which inversely could really help, I think there's going to be a lot of macro fears in the broader market. So, let me know your thoughts on Lucid and where you feel things are going to go. Do you think that we're going to see a nice recovery or are we going to be testing kind of 52- week all-time lows again?
So, that was sitting at 950. So, let me know your general thoughts on Lucid. Are you buying? Are you selling? What are you generally doing? One thing though to take notice of is looking at the market position. You do see a lot more willing buyers over the last couple trading days. So, at least there is a good amount of bids there.
So that could act as some pretty strong support. So again, uh just kind of watch for that. Lucid is one of those very very frustrating stocks from the get-go as what even that caller had or mentioned back in 2021. Everyone thought Lucid was going to be the Tesla killer way back over here. Uh so back in 2021, yeah, everyone thought Lucid was going to be the Tesla killer and just their product was on point.
just execution and that's been the common thing throughout this whole period. So throughout all of this fun experience of Lucid, it's always been execution. That has been the biggest issue single-handedly with Lucid and in my opinion as well marketing because they still don't really understand who their target audience is.
At least with the midsize like you have a pretty wide target audience that you can appeal to. Whereas the Air I know some people always say, "Hey, there's tons of buyers." Well, not really if you think about it. So, I think uh overall the midsize is going to be Lucid's real opportunity for success. So, they cannot mess that up at all.
So, let me know your thoughts on Lucid. Hopefully, everyone's having a amazing weekend this far. One final thing, pop over to my Patreon if you're looking for some solid onpoint buy signals on stocks, options, crypto. I do have a $10 promotion just this weekend only for day trades. So, if you're looking for some solid onpoint kind of day trades, pop over there.
If you get in, it will never increase whatsoever. These are the ones I did put out on Friday for the day trades. Many of them went up. Even this one that went down 24.4. Technically, it did have a huge swing. So, went to A145. BN AI went up 90% after hours continuing that another 255%. So definitely worthwhile to sign up uh for that promo link in the description below and also the comments. With all that, appreciate all of you watching.
Comments 0