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today I would like to discuss about six big lesson that made me a better investor that I got from a different book that I had the chance to read lately and I hope it will help you to manage better during this trouble time on the market and to be a better investor for the future I really believe that I could become a better investor thanks to those books that I've read so I would like to share with you today some parts of those books that I think are very interesting that are highlighted in those book and that I'm always liking to remind myself to read them again and again so the first one is second level thinking it's from the book uh the most important thing from Howard Mark and here he will talk about the difference between the people who have the first level thinking and the second level thinking which is extremely important especially if you want to outperform the market and be a good investor you cannot be a good investor on the long run if you keep on first level thinking you need to go outside a bit of the box and to be able to develop second level thinking so here what he said in his book first level thinking is simplistic and superficial and just about everyone can do it a bad sign for anything involving an attempt of at superiority all the first level thinker needs an opinion about the future as in the outlook for the company is fa able meaning the stock will go up so here the first thing you need to understand if you catch yourself being all the time needing third part advice or third part uh input or anything like this before investing maybe you a bit too stick on first level thinking I'm not saying that it's not good to see different Vision but the problem is if you start looking for okay what this person thinking about this stock does he sing in the same way than me okay I can invest if he doesn't sing on the same way than me I should not invest this is problematic you need to be able to think by yourself and obviously on the market you will always have people think having a different Theory thinking differently and it's not because they are thinking differently that they are right all the time you can be thinking differently but still it can be a good opportunity and the opposite is also true don't really take care of not focusing too much on what people will say especially on internet now that you have a lot of people doing analysis of video uh analysis of company and so on really try to focus on what you learn from the business if you understand well the business if you're able to understand the metric the number and the things that are inside the second level thinking is deep complex and convive the second level thinkers takes a great many things into account what is a range of likely future outcomes which outcome do I think will Ur what the probability I'm right what the consen think how does my expectation differ from the consensus how does the current price for the asset come forward with a consensus view of the future and with mine is a consensus psychology that incorporated in the price to bullish or bearish what will happen to the asset price if the consensus turned out to be right and what if I'm right the difference in workload between first level and second level thinking is clearly massive and the number of people capable of the ladder is Tiny compared to the number capable of the former so really try to practice to be second level thinker is really important is not because today you're first level thinker that you cannot tomorrow be a second level thinker okay so don't blame yourself or anything like this but just try all the time to question this and to push yourself to be one and it will not only help you in investing it will probably help you in every aspect of your life and probably as well in your career as second level Sinker are more rare and they are really more valuable so you may have bigger paychecks a bigger right is whatever bigger chance to get a job if you enter into second level thinking easy okay so the second lesson will be still from or marks it's don't be a fish it's saying in the most important thing it's a book that I really recommend you if you didn't read it yet it's really good so for every person who gets a good Buy in an inefficient Market someone else sells too cheap one of the great thing about poker is that in every game there is a fish if you played for 45 5 minute and haven't figured out who the fish is then it's you the same is certainly true of inefficient Market investing so here there is two team you know people thinking that market are efficient and people thinking that market are inefficient in my opinion it's U it's more difficult than efficient or inefficient I believe that market are kind of efficient but not 100% of the time and the job of an investor is is to be during this 10% of the time inefficiency to be able to seize opportunities and here he will be able to create a good long-term um performance that's why second level thinking is important and also that's why it's so difficult to be a great investor on the long run because you need to be able to find those 10% which is not all the time and to find it for a long long long time with the less possible uh mistakes and it's a bit the same in pocker in poer when you play you don't play every hand you play only the hand that you feel that you have a good uh outcome possible that you have good probabilities of winning that's why there is a fish at the table because you have some people that play hands a bit randomly or Play Hands every end so if you're able to see this person so in the market if you're able to see this 10% where the market is clearly wrong you have good chance but if you're not able to see those 10% here you may be the fish so you will pay the price for the people that will be able to outperform the market but always keep in mind don't be a fish for the financial markets here stocks over Bond it's from Jeremy seel stock for the long run also a book that I recommend is more for beginners and to discover everything but it's really a very good book with the essential and all the basics about investing bull markets and beer markets lead to Sensational story of incredible gains and devastating loss yet patient investors patient stock investors who can see past the scary headlines have always outperformed that will flee the bond to bonds or other assets even such calamitous events as a great 1929 stock crash or the financial crisis of 2008 do not negate the superiority of stocks as long-term Investments here is just to show that whatever happen you will have some panics and you will be maybe tempted to change from your stock portfolio to a Bor for portfolio something less volatile something with fixed income and something that you may think okay it's safer but at the end of the day even with the great financial crisis even with huge market crash on the long run stocks are always performing better than bonds and it's like this in almost every country okay I really recommend you stock for the long run because you will discover a lot lot of study and most of the studies show that stocks always outperform bones especially on the long run in one year two years three years okay maybe bonds will be better but on the long run five years and more stocks really outperform so don't fool yourself don't try to time the market if you want to make money stay on stocks for the long run stay on stocks like as long as you can if you're very good with bonds why not using them or if you really need to have some safety money some money that you cannot afford having minus 20% on it okay why not having some Bonds in your portfolio but again if you want to have a great performance I think you need to be concentrated if you want that I don't know let's say stocks change your life stock really give you a lot of money and yeah make you way richer I think you need to have some concentration you cannot afford being like being in an all weather portfolio like 25% Bond 25% gold 25% stock or whatever I think you need to be concentrated in one thing to be an expert in this thing and then like capitalize fully on it then we have the story of standard all versus IBM is same stock of the for the long run from Jeremy CLE um why did standard all bit IBM when it fell far short in every gross category one simple reason valuation the price you pay for the earnings and dividend you receive the price investors paid for IBM was just to high so here to give a bit of context in the story um he did the comparation between the performance on the market from Standard Oil and IBM um I don't remember exactly when it was if it was in the 60s 17s 80s uh something around there and IBM was a grow stock okay double digit growth every year like it was a future every for everybody IBM was like the future big big big company and St that oil was a big company of so but a company which is will probably decline a bit which is probably already very big and will not really grow much more or grow very slowly so you had a company with a slow growth and a company with a fast and high growth but the difference is the valuation of the two stock was totally different you could buy IBM I don't remember the numbers but let's say for p ratio of 10 and you could buy standard all sorry for p ratio of 10 and IBM for a p ratio of 4 or 50 so here it shows that yes you had better return with standard oil because you could pay you paid only 10 times the profits while for IBM we were paying 30 40 times the profit so valuation really matters of course growth matter I'm not saying growth doesn't matter and is not the the goal of this um of this book to say this the thing is growth matter yes but it depend what price you pay for this growth because high growth is really uncertain and you can see now on the market the market is valuating better the company with a slow growth but we are sure that you will have slow growth than company with a high growth potential but you are not sure how high will be this growth it's way more difficult to put a valuation on this than on a company that you know that every year it will grow 5% and that was the case here that's why on the long run standard all bat IBM then but it was also with the dividend Stander Hall had a good dividend now day I don't think this is totally different I think the case is still true so you really need to take care of valuation and to how the growth will evolve next one is about Cycles okay so the two last will still be from or marks but from a different book if you want another video like this from other books that I've read just let me know in the comment I will do it again the reason for the first video that I have mostly or marks and Jeremy seel is that the two I have on digital so with the ability of doing this the other one are like physical books so I cannot I need to write it down and so on so it's a bit different cycle inevitable every once in a while up or down leg goes on for a long time and or to a great extreme and people start to say this time is different they s the changes in geopolitics institutions technology or behavior that have rendered old rules obsolet they make investment decision that extrapolate the recent Trend but then it it usually turns out that the old rules do still apply and the Cycles resumes so it's I think it's very good for what happening now we have Donald Trump putting tariffs we have Donald Trump doing this war everywhere this tariff War this economic War you have a lot of uncertainty people think we'll have a recession some others say no the truth is we don't really know and it's all about a cycle like we will have a recession it's inevitable it's all in a cycle you will have some period with very good economic growth some period with recession it's normal everything like this happen when you're human you don't have a problem by knowing that okay maybe once a year or twice a year you will have a cold you will have a flu it's something kind of normal you're not scared about this you don't stop living because you know that you will have a flu you know that you will have a cold and yet for stock market for economy people stop living people start being crazy thinking that oh we'll have a recession we'll lose everything and so on it's all about cycle that's why again second level thinking there is what is happening and what you can get from what it's happening so okay if we have a recession it will just show that it's a good time maybe to buy more to invest massively because during this recession time it means that when the cycle of the recession is finished you will have an upward cycle and this upward cycle is where you have the most people that make a lot of money they don't make money during the I mean actually they make money during the upward cycle but it's thanks to the fact that they invested during the downward cycle so don't panic about downward cycle just embrace it because it's the moment when you can put your money and be good when you have a flu when you have a cold generally it's your body saying hey I'm a bit too tired it's time for you to rest and when you finish with this flu when you finish with this cold and you're back on foot generally you have some very good time because you have more energy because your body was able to relax and rest the last one and I will finish on it because I think it's very very good for the moment is about forecasters from John kennet galb we have two class of forecasters those who don't know and those who don't know they don't know so again you may have JP Morgan Bank of America Goldman Sach whatever saying we'll have a recession we have 40% and transportation Trump tariff are destroying everything and so on you may have all of this the truth is nobody knows it's been two years that a recession is supposed to arrive and a year ago it was supposed to be the year where the recession was here we didn't see it and during this year the only thing we could hear is the American economy is great the American economy has never been as great we have a low unemployment rate and the inflation is getting slower and slower so here we go the inflation the recession was out of mouth since the beginning of 20125 while two years ago it was almost sure we'll have one this year or the year before so the thing can change really fast and I will not be surprised that the forecaster forecast something totally different in the next six months or in the next year and even maybe in weeks they will have a totally different uh talk they will say totally different things so don't put yourself on it okay you also have Warren Buffett we say a lot don't listen to economy geopolitics or whatever invest because you think the company is great because you think the company have a great future and you think that the company is cheap that's the only thing that should make you uh buy this okay so if you like this type of video let me know in the comments it will be a pleasure to do something like this again with some other books that I will read and or even other highlights that I did in the book that they could with
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