저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라는 매출과 인도량이 급성장해 왔으며 중국·유럽 공장 가동 시 생산과 수출이 크게 늘 것이라는 낙관론을 펼침. 중국은 전기차 시장 성장이 가파르고 기가팩토리 가동 후 중국 및 아시아·유럽 수출이 유리해질 것이라 주장. 경쟁사 니오는 규모가 훨씬 작고 수익성 달성이 어려울 것으로 봄. 2019년 이후 성장 둔화를 언급했으나 그 원인과 영향에 대한 구체적 수치는 제시되지 않음. 모델 Y가 2021년 봄 3만9천 달러에 출시되어 저가 시장을 공략하고 판매를 크게 늘릴 것으로 전망. 2022년에는 3만 달러 이하도 가능하다고 봄. 모델 3는 미국 판매 상위권이며 모델 Y가 수익성 달성의 핵심이 될 것이라 주장. 현재 시가총액 약 620억 달러는 현 가치가 아닌 미래 성장을 반영한 것이라 보며, 수익성 확보 전 고점 매수에 경고. 발언자는 테슬라 주주이며 향후 정기 업데이트를 예고.
다듬은 글
hello everybody in this video I'm going to be doing a brief stock evaluation of everyone's favorite car company and if you enjoy this type of video come check out my channel and I've done a playlist of a ton of different brief stock analysis videos just like this one the very first thing I wanted to take a look at is Tesla's revenue since it became a public company in 2008 it seen something like twenty five thousand percent revenue growth since it became public which is just absolutely crazy to me I'm very aware that it's not still not yet a profitable company but just to take a look at revenue growth for year to year and just be able to guess from that how it's gonna go in future years is absolutely crazy for the Tesla Bulls this next chart goes very closely with the last one we can see their quarterly deliveries increasing every quarter over quarter until we get to 2019 and a growth has slowed a little bit for Tesla and I'll get to that just a little bit later in the video but still crazy growth for the number of deliveries and they only have one operating factory right now in Nevada in Nevada so think about what happens once they open their Factory in Asia and then build one in Europe as well as one another one in North America they're gonna be able to deliver so many more vehicles right now Tesla is actually exporting all of the Tesla's from the Nevada factory all over the world but once the Giga Factory in China gets built they're going to be able to export their vehicles to all of the countries in Asia as well as to Europe it will probably be cheaper to export the video the vehicles from China than from North America another thing to keep in mind that the Tesla factory in Nevada right now is the third biggest building in the entire world and the Giga factory in China is actually going to be bigger than that so think of all of the production that they can get with that factory here is a chart quickly showing the sales of electric cars in China absolutely soaring and think about how that's gonna look after Tesla launches their factory in China and trying to know how longer has to import the Tesla's and this chart is a couple years old it's from 2017 growth for Tesla actually has slowed quite a bit in China since then imagine what's gonna happen after the gigafactory launched Tesla's biggest competition in China right now is a stock called neo they make electric cars and they're actually a much much smaller company than Tesla and they're much less likely to achieve profitability any time soon and Tesla is very likely to achieve profitability in 2020 and if not in 2020 definitely in 2021 but for neo it is not looking good for them to reach profitability in the next several years this is a really cool chart I found on Bloomberg it shows the projected annual global electric vehicle sales until 2040 and this is obviously very speculative the electric vehicle sales could be a lot better or a little bit worse I seriously doubt it's going to be much worse than this but that's just my opinion and as you can see on this chart the US and China are the biggest two countries for electric vehicle sales and that's currently where Tesla is going to have their first two factories and then we have France Germany and UK as the next biggest three countries and Tesla is very very likely going to build the next factory in Europe and then after Tesla has a huge factory in North America Asia and Europe I think the fourth Factory is very likely to be in North America again either on the east coast of the United States which what I think is probably the most likely or they could do something like put it in Mexico so that they can put supply vehicles a lot more easily to Central America and South America and then the yellow portion that you could see that's pretty small above China would be majorly boosted as Tesla is able to lower the cost of their vehicles this chart is pretty exciting it shows that the model 3 is one of the top 5 best selling cars in the United States and that was in December of 2018 and I believe in August of 2018 it was actually the best selling car with the model 3 and then I think the model Y is actually going to be even better than the model 3 because it's in that lower price bracket I think the model Y is definitely going to be what makes Tesla profitable I think the sales film Ottawa are gonna be like anything we've ever seen from an electric vehicle before kind of like when the model 3 came out but even better here we can see the range the speed the acceleration the price and then the launch price of the model why and as we can see in spring of 2021 the Tesla Model Y will be available for thirty-nine thousand dollars which is definitely getting Tesla into our lower price bracket we're much more people are gonna be able to afford to buy a Tesla there's currently no talk of what it's going to be worth going forward from that and 2022 maybe it could be worth thirty thousand or even less so so many more people are gonna be able to buy a Tesla and this isn't even including the task tax break that comes along with getting an electric car right now it's really just the upper class and very upper-middle class that are able to afford Tesla monarch Model threes but as the price comedown comes down for that model why year over year more and more people are going to be able to afford to buy an electric vehicle and therefore Tesla is going to be able to ramp up vehicle sales more and more as more and more people are able to afford to buy one this whole video I've really been making the bull case for Tesla but this part's going to be just a little bit different so the market cap for Tesla when this chart was made was about sixty two billion and I think these all the other companies on this list are currently much much bigger companies and that's really not a farm market value a fair market valuation for Tesla for a company that has not even achieved profitability yeah I think this market cap for Tesla is definitely a representation of where Tesla will go and not what current what Tesla is currently worth so if you're think you're getting on the Tesla hypetrain really early you're probably wrong and there's another million people that are thinking the exact same thing don't get me wrong I'm currently a Tesla shareholder and I think it's a great investment but they're not going to blow up overnight or anything like that I am currently a Tesla shareholder so we'll definitely be doing periodic updates on the Tesla stocks so subscribe if you think you may be interested in that and to come check out my channel to see what other kind of stocks I like investing in and thank you so much for watching till the end
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