저자: 빌애크먼 · 외국인
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결론: 애크먼은 자신의 투자가 장기 보유 중심이며 단기 가격 예측은 하지 않는다고 강조하고, 공매도 리포트·언론 비판 및 허벌라이프 공방을 중심으로 헤지펀드 업계를 옹호한다. 인수합병: 주주 지지가 있는 거래가 이사회 거절로 무산되는 사례가 많아 인수기업이 수억 달러를 허비한다고 지적. 애크먼은 주주가 사업의 미래를 직접 결정하도록 하는 방식을 택했고, 전략적 파트너와 입찰을 시도할 가능성이 높다고 언급. 결과가 무산되어도 사업이 개선되거나 다른 곳에 매각되면 주주에게 이득이라고 봄. 성과와 운용 방식: 올여름 및 업계 전반의 부진을 언급하며 질문에 답. 시장중립 펀드의 월 -7%는 재앙에 가깝다고 설명. 퍼싱스퀘어는 사실상 롱온리 집중투자 펀드이며 허벌라이프 외에는 주로 매수 포지션을 보유. 개별 종목 전망: 씨피(CP) 등은 수년간 보유 중이며 향후 수년간 더 보유할 계획. 하워드휴즈는 약 7년째 보유. 다음 달 주가 방향은 알 수 없지만 보유 기업의 가치는 1년, 2년 뒤 지금보다 높아질 것이라 전망. 원유·상품 가격 변동성은 장기 투자자에게 저가 매수 기회라고 주장. 장기 vs 단기 및 액티비즘: 액티비스트도 장기 투자자라고 주장. 운용자산이 약 200억 달러 규모라 지속적 매매는 어렵고 최고 품질 기업을 사서 개선하는 방식이 낫다고 설명. 10년 전 단기라는 비판을 받았지만 설립 1년차였다고 반박. 공매도 및 언론 비판: 공매도 리포트 공개를 사적 규제 행위로 본 기사에 반박. 휘트니 틸슨의 레우머 리퀴데이터스(Lumber Liquidators) 리포트, 데이비드 아인혼의 리먼브라더스 경고를 사례로 들어 공매도 공개가 소비자와 주주에게 이익이었다고 주장. 허벌라이프 투자는 350장 슬라이드 발표와 자료 공개로 투명하게 진행했다고 강조. 리스크/조건: 허벌라이프 관련 기사 사실관계 오류를 주장하며 고아원 101곳 운영 주장을 반박, 실제로는 제품 기부(Casa Herbal Life) 세금 사기 가능성을 제기. 출연자 전망 외 명시적 종목 매수·매도 권고는 없음.
다듬은 글
every day you read about deals which don't happen I mean you look at uh you know transactions uh where shareholders are supportive uh the acquirers prepared to pay a big premium in fact many of these deals are stock deals where the shareholders get to continue in the value creation and a board rejects it uh and they don't happen and the acquiring company you know walks away having spent $100 million $200 million when you consider all the financing commitments and everything they need to get I mean what we did in Allan is we we called the question and allowed shareholders to decide what they wanted to do with the future of their business and I think that uh there are acquires who would like to you know companies they'd like to buy there are transactions that don't happen for social issues that I think we can help catalyze so I think it's very likely we will partner with another strategic uh to make a bid for a business and we may not get it um but you know if the outcome for shareholders is the business either improves on its own or it gets sold to someone else I think that's a win um those were great returns this summer has not been great for you nor has it had been for most of the hedge fund IND industry um and last year was you had huge Returns what does the end of the year look like for you and what do you think it's going to look like for people in your business and and if it if it turns out to be negative what do you think it does to the business sure look I I think you know people call us a hedge fund and they call the whole category I mean I think what we need to do a few things one is from an industry perspective we need to explain a little bit better about what hedge fund is now there are some funds that are designed to not lose money almost in any Market condition there's you know call it Market neutral now I think there are very few that actually work but there's some that are successful in that model and a down 7% month for a market neutral fund is like a disaster we're really principally a long only fund with the exception of herbal life we own concentrated positions in companies we own them for years uh you know CP we've owned you know for four years we'll probably own it for for many more years Howard Hughes we've effectively owned for seven years um so we don't I can't tell you where any of our stocks are going to be next month I mean it's you know certainly I can't even tell you where they're going to be at the end of the year what I can tell you is that the businesses we Mand will be a much more valuable company you know a year from now than it is today and two years from now it's going to be even more valuable and CP is going to be a much more valuable company what's interesting about a company like CP you know stock price moves up and down based on oil prices and commodity prices but if you what is the value of a business it's the present value the cash the business generates over the over its life you know the price of oil in the short term doesn't have a particularly meaningful impact on that calculation but it seems to have a big impact on the stock price so volatility is an opportunity for long-term investors to buy more at attractive prices or in the case of CP they're buying more of the company well I almost feel like you're a split to personality on the one hand you are a long-term investor on the other hand you are a big activist like where what do you can think of yourself as uh I mean activists are long-term investors I mean the not all of them not all of them look again I think there's a spectrums just like hedge fund managers mutual fund managers what we do is uh you know 10 years ago people accused us of being short-term well we had been in business for a year it's hard to prove that we're a long-term investor um you know when you're moving around 20 billion it's hard to do that constantly buying and selling things you're much better off buying super high quality companies and making them better I think the most important thing about this article is he basically says uh short sellers who share their views publicly there's something very wrong with that uh it's effectively as you say a hedge fund becoming a private regulator as opposed to people talking up stocks at they own position that's right and I think that uh is is absurd right look at Lumber Liquidators I'll take myself out of it right so Whitney Tilson goes public maybe a year ago and says this company is shipping from Malahide laced product that can cause cancer and harm ignored by the markets uh it took a a uh a 60 Minutes piece uh which Whitney obviously was uh the protagonist in uh but they did their own research as well to ultimately alert the world stock went from over $100 a share to today is 15 the company's been forced to withdraw this product they're under investigation by a whole bunch of regulators I think the consumers have benefited the shareholders Who Sold when they when with he went out with his piece have been big beneficiaries look at David Einhorn and Leman right he came public and said this company's under capitalized they need to recapitalize uh Leman ignored him I think they continue to buy back stock you know they said David was Market manipulation I think was the word that was used well had the company recapitalized Leman might have made it through the financial crisis shareholders might have gotten something out of their investment uh in Leman look at Jim chos on en run so I think that you know then he what's interesting with the article and again there are lots of factual problems with the article which which we can address but the this is an inherently healthy phenomenon what what's interesting about the article is the last sentence he talks about is it right for sort of hedge fund managers operating behind closed doors and private meetings you know there's nothing closed door private about our investment in Herbal Life right we gave the most public most transparent presentation 350 slides with multiple presentations we have a website with every piece of research we've done plus all the source documents yeah isn't that an incredibly healthy thing you know for Market transparency um so I think it's uh really disagree uh you know reporters can write whatever they want to write I respect that you know for someone who spent clearly an enormous amount of time 12,000w article to come to I I think an absurd conclusion uh disappointment only I'll give you a little fun fact which might help people discern this company is operating fraudulently so among the facts that he reports in the story says urbal life is running uh 101 orphanages in 51 countries around the world now the only place for him to get that fact was from Herbal Life herbal life has something called Casa herbal life and it's sort of their philanthropy what it is is they give a blender or two to a children's organization in the country and they sh this product that can't that Distributors can't sell they check a box and urbal life donates the product to these 101 little places around the world and it's fed to small children now I I don't know whether small children in Africa should be drinking this uh you know protein shake from M life that that's a medical question but the notion that they're running orphanages uh you know I just think that if I were a reporter I would focus on that i' go go into these Kasa herbal lives I do I wouldn't ask for Herbal Life to tell me where the model ones are located but I I go see that one I think it's more a tax fraud than uh for Distributors than it is helping
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